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August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says

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Private sector payrolls grew at the weakest pace in more than three-and-a-half years in August, providing yet another sign of a deteriorating labor market, according to ADP.

Companies hired just 99,000 workers for the month, less than the downwardly revised 111,000 in July and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 140,000.

August was the weakest month for job growth since January 2021, according to data from the payrolls processing firm.

“The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.

The report corroborates multiple data points recently that show hiring has slowed considerably from its blistering pace following the Covid outbreak in early 2020.

Job openings in July also touched their lowest point since January 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday, while outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that this was the worst August for layoffs since 2009 and the slowest year for hiring since the firm started tracking the metric in 2005.

Still, the ADP data showed that while hiring has slowed considerably, only a few sectors reported actual job losses. Professional and business services declined 16,000, manufacturing lost 8,000 and information services declined by 4,000.

The latest Labor Department data also helped dispel fears of widespread layoffs, as initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked lower to 227,000 for the week ending Aug. 31, slightly below the consensus forecast for 229,000.

On the upside, education and health services added 29,000, construction increased 27,000 and other services contributed 20,000. Financial activities also saw a gain of 18,000 and trade, transportation and utilities was up 14,000.

By size, companies that employ fewer than 50 workers reported a loss of 9,000, while those with between 50 and 499 increased by 68,000.

Wages continued to rise, but continued to show an easing pace than some of the earlier gains. Annual pay increased 4.8% for those who stayed in their jobs, about the same level as July, according to ADP.

The ADP count now tees up the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Friday. While the two reports can differ significantly, they were close to perfectly in line for July.

The consensus forecast is for payrolls to have increased by 161,000, after rising by 114,000 in July, with a tick down in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, though the recent data could add some downside risk to the estimate. Private payrolls grew by just 97,000 in July, according to the BLS.

Markets expect the weakening jobs picture to push the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates when it meets Sept. 17-18. The main question is how quickly and how aggressively the Fed will move, with current market pricing indicating at least a quarter percentage point cut at this month’s meeting and a full percentage point lopped off the federal funds rate by the end of 2024.

ADP reported that it conducted a rebenchmarking of its data based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, resulting in a decline of 9,000 jobs for the August report. A similar adjustment from the BLS indicated that nonfarm payrolls had been overcounted by 818,000 between April 2023 and March 2024. ADP will do a full-year adjustment in February 2025.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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