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August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says

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Private sector payrolls grew at the weakest pace in more than three-and-a-half years in August, providing yet another sign of a deteriorating labor market, according to ADP.

Companies hired just 99,000 workers for the month, less than the downwardly revised 111,000 in July and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 140,000.

August was the weakest month for job growth since January 2021, according to data from the payrolls processing firm.

“The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.

The report corroborates multiple data points recently that show hiring has slowed considerably from its blistering pace following the Covid outbreak in early 2020.

Job openings in July also touched their lowest point since January 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday, while outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that this was the worst August for layoffs since 2009 and the slowest year for hiring since the firm started tracking the metric in 2005.

Still, the ADP data showed that while hiring has slowed considerably, only a few sectors reported actual job losses. Professional and business services declined 16,000, manufacturing lost 8,000 and information services declined by 4,000.

The latest Labor Department data also helped dispel fears of widespread layoffs, as initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked lower to 227,000 for the week ending Aug. 31, slightly below the consensus forecast for 229,000.

On the upside, education and health services added 29,000, construction increased 27,000 and other services contributed 20,000. Financial activities also saw a gain of 18,000 and trade, transportation and utilities was up 14,000.

By size, companies that employ fewer than 50 workers reported a loss of 9,000, while those with between 50 and 499 increased by 68,000.

Wages continued to rise, but continued to show an easing pace than some of the earlier gains. Annual pay increased 4.8% for those who stayed in their jobs, about the same level as July, according to ADP.

The ADP count now tees up the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Friday. While the two reports can differ significantly, they were close to perfectly in line for July.

The consensus forecast is for payrolls to have increased by 161,000, after rising by 114,000 in July, with a tick down in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, though the recent data could add some downside risk to the estimate. Private payrolls grew by just 97,000 in July, according to the BLS.

Markets expect the weakening jobs picture to push the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates when it meets Sept. 17-18. The main question is how quickly and how aggressively the Fed will move, with current market pricing indicating at least a quarter percentage point cut at this month’s meeting and a full percentage point lopped off the federal funds rate by the end of 2024.

ADP reported that it conducted a rebenchmarking of its data based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, resulting in a decline of 9,000 jobs for the August report. A similar adjustment from the BLS indicated that nonfarm payrolls had been overcounted by 818,000 between April 2023 and March 2024. ADP will do a full-year adjustment in February 2025.

Economics

The Medicaid calculus behind Donald Trump’s tax cuts

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HOW REPUBLICANS will find enough budget savings to pay for tax cuts is the political maths question of 2025. One of the most important calculations involves Medicaid, a government health programme for poor and disabled Americans. The problem is that Donald Trump has promised not to touch it, pledging to protect it for “the most vulnerable, for our kids, pregnant women.” On May 12th he also promised to lower prescription drug prices, although his plan is vague. Mr Trump’s populism on health benefits complicates the work of congressional Republicans hoping to slash spending. The committee that oversees Medicaid has finally released its proposal. Its outline steers clear of the deepest cuts that had been debated in Washington, but it nonetheless seeks large savings by imposing work requirements on Medicaid recipients who are unemployed.

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Tariff receipts topped $16 billion in April, a record that helped cut the budget deficit

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Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, as trade tensions continued over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, U.S., May 12, 2025.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Receipts from U.S. tariffs hit a record level in April as revenue from President Donald Trump’s trade war started kicking in.

Customs duties totaled $16.3 billion for the month, some 86% above the $8.75 billion collected during March and more than double the $7.1 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department reported Monday.

That brought the year-to-date total for the duties up to $63.3 billion and more than 18% ahead of the same period in 2024. Trump instituted 10% across-the-board tariffs on U.S. imports starting April 2, which came on top of other select duties he had leveled previously.

While the U.S. is still running a massive budget deficit, the influx in tariffs helped shave some of the imbalance for April, a month in which the Treasury generally runs a surplus because of the income tax filing deadline hitting in mid-month.

The surplus totaled $258.4 billion for the month, up 23% from the same period a year ago. That cut the fiscal year-to-date total to $1.05 trillion, which is still 13% higher than a year ago.

Also on an annual basis, receipts rose 10% in April from 2024, while outlays declined 4%. Year to date, receipts are up 5%, while expenditures have risen 9%.

High interest rates are still posing a budgetary burden. Net interest on the $36.2 trillion national debt totaled $89 billion in April, higher than every other category except Social Security. For the fiscal year, net interest has run to $579 billion, also second highest of any outlay.

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Economics

Bessent sees tariff agreement as progress in ‘strategic’ decoupling with China

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Treasury Sec. Bessent: Likely to meet with China again 'in next few weeks' on a bigger agreement

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the trade agreement reached over the weekend represents another stage in the U.S. shaking its reliance on Chinese products.

Though the U.S. “decoupling” itself from its need for cheap imports from the China has been discussed for years, the process has been a slow one and unlikely to ever mean a complete break.

However, Bessent said there are now specific elements of decoupling in place that are vital to U.S. interests. The U.S. imported nearly $440 billion in goods from China in 2024, running a $295.4 billion trade deficit.

“We do not want a generalized decoupling from China,” he said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “But what we do want is a decoupling for strategic necessities, which we were unable to obtain during Covid and we realized that efficient supply chains were not resilient supply chains.”

When the pandemic struck in 2020, demand in the U.S. shifted from one reliant more on services to a greater focus on goods. That meant greater difficulty in obtaining material for multiple products including big-ticket appliances and automobiles. The technology industry, with its reliance on semiconductors, was also hit. What followed was an inflation surge in the U.S. not seen in more than 40 years.

The details of the U.S.-China pact are still sketchy, but U.S. officials have said so-called reciprocal tariffs will be suspended though broad-based 10% duties will remain in effect.

“We are going to create our own steel. [Tariffs] protect our steel industry. They work on critical medicines, on semiconductors,” Bessent said. “We are doing that, and the reciprocal tariffs have nothing to do with the specific industry tariffs.”

The agreement between the two sides is essentially a 90-day pause that will see reciprocal duties halted though the 10% tariff as well as a 20% charge related to fentanyl remain in place.

Bessent expressed encouragement on the fentanyl issue in which Chinese officials “are now serious about assisting the U.S. in stopping the flow of precursor drugs.” Bessent did not indicate a specific date when the next round of talks will be held but indicated it should be in the next several weeks.

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