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Bank of England holds rates but vote split surprises markets

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The Bank of England pictured in December 2024.

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LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday ended its last meeting of the year with a decision to leave interest rates unchanged, after U.K. inflation rose to an eight-month high.

Analysts had widely expected a rate hold at the December meeting, as policymakers remain concerned with stubborn services inflation and wage growth.

The BOE has already taken its key rate from 5.25% to 4.75% this year in two quarter-percentage-point moves.

In a deviation from expectations, three members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce rates, while six were in favor of a hold. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast only one member would vote to cut.

Sterling pared gains against the U.S. dollar directly following the BOE announcement, trading 0.2% higher at 12:22 p.m. The greenback staged a broad rally on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point but signaled a more hawkish outlook for 2025. It gave up some gains on Thursday morning.

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In a statement, the BOE said the increase in U.K. headline inflation in November to 2.6% was slightly higher than previously expected, adding that services inflation remained “elevated.”

BOE staff also downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024, now predicting no growth, compared with the 0.3% expansion predicted in its November report.

U.K. growth figures have come in weaker than expected in recent months, with the economy posting a surprise 0.1% contraction in October.

Money markets this week pared back bets on the pace of further trims next year after the publication of data on inflation and summer wage growth, and are now pricing in roughly 50 basis points of upcoming cuts, down from an outlook of around 70 basis points’ worth of cuts on Monday.

“The split vote decision and the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that a February interest rate cut remains very much in play, if not yet a done deal,” Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said in emailed comments.

“The Bank of England risks backing itself into a corner over the pace of policy loosening because, with inflation likely to drift higher, the timing of future interest rate cuts could become increasingly complex, especially if stagflation fears become reality.”

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

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