President-elect Donald Trump offered up a long list of promises during his campaign, and next year will bring a major test with the upcoming expiration of many of the provisions from his first administration’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
“No one has a crystal ball on what’s going to happen here, but certainly it’s a little bit clearer based on a Trump victory than it would have been based on a Harris victory,” said Brian Newman, a tax partner at Top 25 Firm CohnReznick in Hartford, Connecticut. “Obviously the big point is going to be either to extend or to make permanent TCJA provisions.”
Trump has also called for lowering the corporate tax rate, which was supposed to be made permanent with the TCJA. He has proposed to lower it to 20%, or 15% for companies that manufacture their products in the U.S.
“Going from 21% down to 20% may be a much easier sell than layering on something that would get the corporate rate down to 15%,” said Newman.
Trump has also called for bringing back 100% bonus depreciation. “Right now the bonus rate is at 40% and scheduled to go down to 20% next year,” Newman continued. “There’s been a push to get that back up to 100%. If that occurs, we’ll be talking to our clients for year-end tax planning about deciding on whether to delay placing an asset in service a month or two if, in fact, we think that we’re going to go back to 100% bonus, versus buying something this year and placing it in service this year. There are always transition rules. That’s something that we have to be cautious about. That’s something that is going to be closely watched, because it could have a significant impact on clients.”
On the other hand, parts of the TCJA could be jettisoned. Trump has also called for eliminating the act’s $10,000 limit on state and local tax deductions, also known as the “SALT cap,” for individuals, or raising it.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Mason City, Iowa.
KC McGinnis/Bloomberg
“It’s an easy discussion to tell clients, if you have property taxes to pay, you’re probably better off paying the property taxes January 1 versus December 31 in the hopes that something does get passed,” said Newman. “You might get a benefit for it, versus now in 2024 you know you’re not going to get a benefit.”
The treatment of R&D expenses involves another provision of the TCJA that could be eliminated. “The last couple of years, taxpayers have had to capitalize their R&D costs and then amortize them over a five-year period,” said Newman. “That’s had a significant impact on compliance and the bottom line of taxable income. Trump has said that he would like to get those expenses currently deductible again, which would be helpful for businesses that have R&D expenses.
The Section 163(j) limitation on business interest could be another area where TCJA provision would be eliminated. “Currently, your adjusted taxable income does not include adding back depreciation and amortization like it did in the first few years of the TCJA. President-elect Trump has said that he would be in favor of going back to an EBITDA calculation so that you can add back your depreciation and amortization, which would make the limitation less painful for clients. That’s another area that I think you’re going to see some tax law changes.”
Some of these business tax changes were passed by the House earlier this year as part of the Wyden-Smith Tax Relief for American Workers and Families Act of 2024 but never got through the Senate because of disagreement over other provisions, such as expansion of the Child Tax Credit.
Trump has also called for not taxing income from tips, Social Security and overtime, as well as eliminating taxes on firefighters, police officers and members of the military.
However, that could encourage people to reclassify their income as the tax-exempt kind.
“It will always be interesting to see exactly how those things work and how they’re calculated, because everyone’s always looking to maximize what income is not subject to tax or may have lower tax rates,” said Newman. “But you have to make sure that you know, things are properly defined, and that ultimately, you know, we have a clear guidance on what the calculation should be.”
Trump has also called for eliminating the stock buyback excise tax for public companies that buy back their own shares of over $1 million in a taxable year. “Right now, there’s a 1% tax on that,” said Newman. “The Biden administration has proposed increasing that to 4%, but President-elect Trump has said that he would be in favor of eliminating that tax.”
He believes the qualified business income deduction under the TCJA will also be closely watched, “People would be looking for that to either get extended or made permanent,” said Newman. “That’s a 20% deduction on certain flow-through income, which has been very beneficial to people who it applies to. Unfortunately, it does not apply, for the most part, to accountants and other professional services organizations.”
Trump has also called for doubling the standard deduction as it was in the TCJA. That could cause even fewer people to itemize their deductions. “There’s a good amount of people who don’t itemize because the SALT cap is limited to $10,000 and then if you don’t have large home mortgage interest or other itemized deductions, you’re not getting over the standard deduction threshold as it currently stands,” said Newman. “If you double the standard deduction, there will be less and less itemizers, and those types of deductions don’t become as valuable.”
That may prompt donors to reduce their charitable contributions if they can’t itemize the deduction.
Trump has also called for other tax breaks, such as tax credits for family caregivers taking care of parents or loved ones, and allowing those who buy an automobile made in the U.S. to write off the interest on their car loans.
All those tax breaks may prove difficult for states that rely on income taxes from their residents and can’t afford to let their deficits run wild. “Year after year, the state tax liabilities on transactions and income are becoming more and more a larger component of the total tax burden of both companies and individuals,” said Newman. “One of the things that states like to do is decouple from federal provisions. We always want to keep in mind, even if you get new provisions at the federal level, if they’re not already decoupled, you may get decoupled on provisions for the state. For instance, if President-elect Trump is successful in exempting, say, overtime pay, you may get a lot of states decouple from that, and the states will still tax that.”
Trump’s tax policy will also depend on what Congress does and how much control Republicans will be able to exercise, especially in the House.
“Tax was not the focal point of the campaign, and when it did emerge as an issue, former (and future) President Trump presented tax policy ideas largely in broad strokes, though he also had no small number of new ideas for voters to consider,” said Jonathan Traub, managing principal and tax policy group leader at Deloitte Tax LLP, in a statement. “Of course, tax legislation generally originates in Congress, not the White House, so any new tax laws enacted will bear the imprint of the legislative branch with its many competing interests and priorities. And, just as importantly, the ability of the Republicans to use budget reconciliation to fast-track major tax and spending bills to the White House depends on the outcome of a handful of uncalled House races around the country.”
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Fifty-two percent of accountants expect their firms to shrink in headcount by 20% in the next five years, according to a new report.
The Indiana CPA Society, in collaboration with CPA Crossings, released today a 2025 Workforce Transformation report. Paradoxically, while it found that most respondents anticipate their firms to reduce headcount, 75% said that their firms will need the same amount or more staff to meet future client demand.
Sixty percent of respondents said that entry-level professionals are the role they anticipate needing fewer employees in the future due to automation. Nearly half as many responded saying experienced professionals (approximately 33%) and manager-level roles (approximately 25%).
The report highlights the weaknesses of the pyramid-shaped practice structure that is the basis for most firm’s current talent management and workforce development systems. One challenge is the pyramid’s low retention design.
“The pyramid practice structure was not designed to retain staff. It actually does the opposite. Upward mobility is statistically difficult to attain,” the report reads. “Firms have a lot of requirements for entry-level staff, but there is a lot less need for experienced staff. Firms eventually have a lot of entry-level professionals qualified to become experienced staff but only a few openings. It only gets more difficult as staff try to move from experienced staff to managers. For those who want to move from managers to owners, the wait could be 15 years or more — or maybe never.”
The report discussed the dwindling pipeline of incoming talent, saying, “Currently, there are not enough qualified staff to maintain a bottom layer that is wide enough,” and generational preferences, saying, “Gen Zers are looking for meaning and emotional connection. If they cannot find these connections in their work, it won’t take much for them to decide to move on.”
The final weakness of the pyramid model the report highlighted was advances in technology, particularly automation and artificial intelligence.
“Advances in technology, especially with automation and artificial intelligence, could obliterate the work being done by the bottom of the pyramid,” the report reads. “This impact is beginning to be seen in accounting firms across the country as manual and time-consuming data entry and reconciliation tasks, once assigned to entry-level staff, are being automated. Firms are already seeing great benefits from this transfer, such as faster and more accurate data processing.”
The report suggests that firms take on a new practice structure that focuses on precision hiring, proactive retention, practical technology implementation, pricing expertise, practice area expansion or focus, and people acceleration.
Senate Republicans intend to propose revised tax and health-care provisions to President Donald Trump’s $3 trillion signature economic package this week, shrugging off condemnations of the legislation by Elon Musk as they rush to enact it before July 4.
The Senate Finance Committee’s plan to extract savings from the Medicaid and — perhaps — Medicare health insurance programs could depart in key respects from the version of the giant bill that narrowly passed the US House in May. The release of the panel’s draft will likely touch off a new round of wrangling between fiscal conservatives and moderates.
As the debate unfolds, businesses in the energy, health care, manufacturing and financial services industries will be watching closely.
SALT dilemma
A crucial decision for Majority Leader John Thune, Committee Chairman Mike Crapo and other panel members will be how to handle the $40,000 limit on state and local tax deductions that was crucial to passage of the bill in the House.
Senate Republicans want to scale back the $350 billion cost of increasing the cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for those making less than $500,000.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and a group of Republican members from high-tax states have warned that any diminishing of the SALT cap would doom the measure when it comes back to the House for a final vote. At the same time, so-called pass-through businesses in the service sector are pushing to remove a provision in the House bill that limits their ability to claim SALT deductions.
The Senate Finance Committee is widely expected to propose extending three business tax breaks that expire after 2029 in the House version to order to make them permanent. They are the research and development deduction, the ability to use depreciation and amortization as the basis for interest expensing and 100% bonus depreciation of certain property, including most machinery and factories.
Manufacturers and banks are particularly eager to see all of them extended.
To pay for the items, which most economists rank as the most pro-growth in the overall tax bill, senators may restrict temporary breaks on tips and overtime, which Trump campaigned on during last year’s election in appeals to restaurant and hospitality workers. The White House wants to keep those provisions as is.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Trump “supports changing” the SALT deduction and it’s up to lawmakers to reach a consensus.
“It’s a horse trading issue with the Senate and the House,” Hassett said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation. “The one thing we need and the president wants is a bill that passes, and passes on the Fourth of July.”
The committee will also face tough decisions on green energy tax credits. Scaling those back generates nearly $600 billion in savings in the House bill.
On Friday, rival House factions released dueling statements.
The conservative House Freedom Caucus warned that any move to restore some of the credits would prompt its members to vote against the bill. “We want to be crystal clear: If the Senate attempts to water down, strip out, or walk back the hard-fought spending reductions and IRA Green New Scam rollbacks achieved in this legislation, we will not accept it,” the group said.
In contrast, a group of 13 Republican moderates, led by Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick and Virginia’s Jen Kiggans, urged senators to make changes that would benefit renewable energy projects, many in Republican districts, that came about through President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
“We remain deeply concerned by several provisions, including those which would abruptly terminate several credits just 60 days after enactment for projects that have not yet begun construction,” the lawmakers said in a letter to the Senate.
Banks are especially interested to ensure that tax credits on their balance sheets as part of renewable energy financing aren’t rendered worthless by the bill.
Health-care perils
Medicaid and Medicare cuts present the most daunting challenge in the committee’s draft. While Republicans are generally in favor of new work requirements for able-bodied adults to be insured by Medicaid, some moderates like Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have expressed concern over giving states just a year and a half to implement the requirement.
Senator Lisa Murkowski House provisions instituting new co-pays for Medicaid recipients and limits on the ability of states to tax Medicaid providers in order to increase federal reimbursement payments are more disputed.
Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri and Jim Justice of West Virginia have said they oppose these changes.
To find savings to make up for removing these provisions, Republicans said last week that they are examining whether to put new restrictions on billing practices in Medicare Advantage. Large health insurers that provide those plans would be most affected by such changes.
Yet overall, GOP leaders say the tax bill remains on schedule and they expect much of the House bill to remain intact.
The Senate’s rules-keeper is in the process of deciding whether some provisions are not primarily fiscal in nature. Provisions that restrict state regulations on artificial intelligence, ending some gun regulations and putting new limits on federal courts are seen as most vulnerable to being stripped under Senate budget rules.
Lawmakers are largely taking their cues from Trump and sticking by the $3 trillion bill at the center of the White House’s economic agenda.
Musk, the biggest political donor of the 2024 campaign, has threatened to help defeat anyone who votes for the legislation, but lawmakers seem to agree that staying in the president’s good graces is the safer path to political survival.
“We are already pretty far down the trail,” Thune told reporters on Thursday afternoon as his colleagues left for the weekend.