Connect with us

Finance

Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions for 2025

Published

on

Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration taken Nov. 25, 2024.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

After a blistering rally in bitcoin this year, crypto investors and industry executives told CNBC, they’re expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to hit new all-time highs in 2025.

In December, the world’s largest cryptocurrency broke the highly-anticipated $100,000, setting a record high price above that. That came after Donald Trump — who ran on a prominently pro-crypto policy platform — secured a historic election win in November.

Trump’s imminent return to the White House has boosted sentiment surrounding crypto with many industry executives and analysts expecting him to promote a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.

During his election campaign, Trump vowed to replace incumbent Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has taken aggressive legal actions against various crypto firms. Gensler agreed to step down from the SEC in 2025.

Trump has also indicated the U.S. could establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, by pooling funds obtained through seizures from criminal activity.

Also in 2024, bitcoin topped 2021’s price milestone of close to $70,000 after the SEC gave the green light to the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.

The ETF approval was widely viewed as a key moment for the cryptocurrency as it broadens its appeal to more mainstream investors.

The other key moment in 2024 was the halving, an event that takes places every four years and reduces the supply of bitcoin onto the market. This is typically very supportive for bitcoin’s price.

These developments helped move crypto past the narrative of an industry marred by scandal. That was the dominant theme of 2023 as two of crypto’s most prominent figures — FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao — both received prison sentences over criminal charges.

This year, bitcoin has more than doubled in price. The token is widely expected to see even more positive price momentum in 2025 — with several industry watchers predicting a doubling in value to $200,000.

CoinShares: $80,000-$150,000

James Butterfill, head of research for crypto-focused asset manager CoinShares, told CNBC that he sees prices of both $150,000 and $80,000 being on the cards for bitcoin in 2025.

Butterfill said in the long term it wouldn’t be “unreasonable” to expect bitcoin to become worth about 25% of gold’s market share — up from about 10% currently. That would equate to a price of $250,000.

But he doesn’t see that happening next year. “Timing of this is very difficult though and I don’t expect this to occur in 2025, but it will head in that direction,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.

He said that it is “likely” bitcoin could hit both $80,000 and $150,000 during the course of the year.  

Butterfill’s $80,000 call, if hit, would be a result of Trump’s promised pro-crypto policies not materializing.

“Disappointment surrounding Trump’s proposed crypto policies and doubts about their enactment could prompt a significant market correction,” Butterfill said.

Next year, Butterfill expects a favorable U.S. regulatory environment to be the primary driver supporting bitcoin prices.

In 2023, CoinShares forecast bitcoin at $80,000 in 2024.

Matrixport: $160,000

Matrixport, a crypto financial services firm, said bitcoin could hit $160,000 in 2025.

“This outlook is supported by sustained demand for Bitcoin ETFs, favorable macroeconomic trends, and an expanding global liquidity pool,” Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport told CNBC by email.

Bitcoin is known to be very volatile with the potential for corrections of between 70% and 80% from all-time highs. Thielen said the drawdowns in 2025 will be “less pronounced.”

“Bitcoin’s growing base of dip buyers and robust institutional support is expected to mitigate severe corrections,” Thielen said.

Matrixport predicted in 2023 that bitcoin would hit $125,000 in 2024.

Galaxy Digital: $185,000

Alex Thorn, head of research at crypto-focused asset manager Galaxy Digital, sees bitcoin crossing $150,000 in the first half of the year before reaching $185,000 in the fourth quarter.

“A combination of institutional, corporate, and nation state adoption will propel Bitcoin to new heights in 2025,” Thorn wrote in a research note shared with CNBC.

“Throughout its existence, Bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, particularly the S&P 500 and gold, and that trend will continue in 2025. Bitcoin will also reach 20% of Gold’s market cap.”

Galaxy predicts U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded products will collectively cross $250 billion in assets under management in 2025.

The firm expects next year will also see five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation states add bitcoin to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.

Standard Chartered: $200,000

Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered is calling for a doubling in price for bitcoin. The bank’s head of digital assets research said in a note earlier this month that he expects bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Standard Chartered expects institutional flows into bitcoin to “continue at or above the 2024 pace” next year.

Bitcoin inflows from institutions have already reached 683,000 BTC since the start of the year, the bank noted, via U.S. spot ETFs that were largely purchased by MicroStrategy, a software firm and effective bitcoin proxy.

Kendrick said bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy should “match or exceed its 2024 purchases” next year.

Pension funds should also start including more bitcoin in their portfolio via U.S. spot ETFs next year thanks to anticipated reforms from the incoming Trump administration to rules on so-called “TradFi” (traditional finance) firms making investments in digital currencies, he added.

“Even a small allocation of the USD 40tn in US retirement funds would significantly boost BTC prices,” Kendrick noted. “We would turn even more bullish if BTC saw more rapid uptake by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or a potential US strategic reserve fund.”

Carol Alexander: $200,000

Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, sees $200,000 bitcoin as a possibility next year.

“I’m more bullish than ever for 2025,” Alexander told CNBC, adding bitcoin’s price “could easily reach $200,000 but there are no signs of volatility reducing.”

“By the summer I expect that it will be trading around $150,000 plus or minus $50,000.” Alexander clarified she doesn’t actually own any bitcoin herself.

Explaining her rationale, Alexander said that supportive U.S. regulation will boost bitcoin, however, a lack of regulation on crypto exchanges will continue to drive volatility due to highly-leveraged trades shooting prices up and down.

Alexander has a history of correctly calling bitcoin’s price. Last year, she told CNBC that bitcoin would hit $100,000 in 2024, which it did.

Bit Mining: $180,000 – $190,000

Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, is predicting bitcoin will hit a price of between $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025 — but he’s also cautious of potential pullbacks in price.

“Bitcoin’s price in 2025 is likely to see both significant upward momentum and occasional sharp corrections,” Yang told CNBC. “In moments of market shocks, such as a major stock market downturn, bitcoin could temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish.”

Factors underlying an anticipated bitcoin rally in 2025 include lower interest rates, support from Trump, and increased institutional adoption.

Based on these dynamics, I predict Bitcoin could peak at $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, aligning with historical cycle patterns and the growing mainstream adoption of crypto,” Yang said.

Nevertheless, Yang also expects next year to bring a number of “corrections” for bitcoins price, too.

Risks to the downside include U.S.-China tensions, global capital market disruptions, potential unexpected restrictive measures, and possible delays to the Fed rate-cutting cycle.

Last year, Yang forecast bitcoin would hit $75,000 in 2024.

Maple Finance: $180,000 – $200,000

Sid Powell, CEO and co-founder of centralized finance platform Maple Finance, is targeting a price of between $180,000 and $200,000 for bitcoin by the end of 2025.

“If you look historically when we saw gold ETFs come in, the inflows in the first year increased dramatically in subsequent years — and I think we can expect to see that with the bitcoin ETFs,” Powell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“I think we will see higher inflows in subsequent years as bitcoin and indeed crypto becomes a core asset allocation for institutional asset managers,” Powell added.

Another factor Powell sees boosting bitcoin’s price is the anticipation of a bitcoin strategic reserve in the U.S.

Still, Maple Finance’s boss is mindful about market pullbacks. “I think you’ll of course see corrections — crypto remains a cyclical industry,” Powell told CNBC.

Bitcoin to hit $200,000 in 2025 thanks to Trump, crypto CEO says

In previous market cycles, bitcoin has risen wildly over the course of a few months before plummeting sharply in value.

Take the previous cycle, for example: in 2021, bitcoin rallied to nearly $70,000 as more and more investors piled in but the subsequent year, the token plunged to less than $17,000 on the back of a series of major crypto company bankruptcies.

However, Powell stressed that the 70% to 80% drawdowns bitcoin has seen in cycles past are unlikely in 2025 “because there is more of a buffer from those institutional inflows into the sector.”

Nexo: $250,000

Elitsa Taskova, chief product officer of crypto lending platform Nexo, is more bullish on bitcoin’s 2025 prospects than the general consensus.

“We see bitcoin more than doubling to $250,000 within a year,” Taskova told CNBC, adding that in the longer term — as in, over the next decade — she sees the entire crypto market capitalization surpassing that of gold.

“These projections align with ongoing trends and social markers: increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more Bitcoin and crypto-related exchange-traded products (ETPs), and stronger adoption,” Nexo’s product chief said.

Supportive macroeconomic conditions, such as easing of monetary policy from the world’s major central banks, is likely to boost bitcoin, she added.

“The Federal Reserve’s balancing act – managing interest rates and inflation while avoiding stagnation – will be pivotal,” she said, cautioning that on the flipside, persistent inflation could also prompt a hawkish pivot.

“As the U.S. leads in crypto-related capital deployment, rate decisions and inflation dynamics will likely remain key influences on bitcoin’s price in 2025.”

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Finance

Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally

Published

on

ETF shelters from the Middle East War

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”

It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.

A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.

But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.

Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.

The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.

Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.

Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.

“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.

He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.

For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.

But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.

While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.

Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said. 

But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.” 

Sign up for our weekly newsletter that goes beyond the livestream, offering a closer look at the trends and figures shaping the ETF market.

Disclaimer

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Finance

Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment

Published

on

ETF Stress Tests: How funds are showing resilience in the face of uncertainty

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.

According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.

“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”

His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.

“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”

Liquidity as the real issue?

Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.

“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”

He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.

“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.

Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.

“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.

Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.

“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Finance

Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks

Published

on

Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.

Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.

Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.

“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”

When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.

“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”

The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.

“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”

‘Attack mode’

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Trending