Larry Swedroe, who is considered one of the market’s most esteemed researchers, thinks Warren Buffett’s investment style doesn’t work well anymore.
He cites the number of professional Wall Street firms and hedge funds now participating in the market.
“Warren Buffett was generally considered the greatest stock picker of all time. And, what we have learned in the academic research is Warren Buffett really was not a great stock picker at all,” Swedroe told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “What Warren Buffett’s ‘secret sauce’ was, he figured out 50, 60 years before all the academics what these factors were that allowed you to earn excess returns.”
Swedroe indicated index funds can help investors trying to mimic Buffett’s performance.
“[Investor] Cliff Asness and the team at AQR did some great research and showed that what you accounted for the leverage Buffett applied through his reinsurance company. If you bought an index of stocks that had these same characteristics, you would have matched Buffett’s returns virtually,” said Swedroe. “Now today, every investor can own through ETFs or mutual funds the same types of stocks that Buffett has bought through companies that apply this academic research — companies like Dimensional, AQR, Bridgeway, BlackRock, Alpha Architect and a few others.”
Swedroe is the author and co-author of almost 20 books — including “Enrich Your Future – The Keys to Successful Investing” released in February.
In an email to CNBC, he called it “a collection of stories and analogies … that help investors understand how markets really work, how prices are set, why it is so hard to persistently outperform through active management [stock picking and market timing,] and how human nature leads us to make investment mistakes [and how to avoid them].”
During his “ETF Edge” interview,’ Swedroe added investors can also benefit from momentum trading. He contends market timing and stock picking often don’t factor into long-term success.
“Momentum certainly is a factor that has worked over the long term, although it does go through some long periods like everything else will underperform. But momentum does work,” said Swedroe, who’s also the head of economic and financial research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. “It’s purely systematic. Computers can run it, you don’t need to pay big fees and you can access it with cheap momentum.”
In his latest book, Swedroe likens the stock market to sports betting and active managers to bookies. He suggests more investors “play” —or invest — the more likely they are to underperform.
“Wall Street needs you to trade a lot so they can make a lot of money on bid offer spreads. Active managers make more money by getting you to believe that they’re likely to outperform,” said Swedroe. “It’s virtually impossible mathematically for that to happen because they just have higher expenses including higher taxes. They just need you to play, and so, you know, that’s why they tell you active management’s a winner’s game.”
‘Dumb retail money’
He sees active management getting more efficient in pulling in emotional investors – which he calls “dumb retail money.”
“[Emotional investors] do so poorly [that] they underperform the very funds they invest in because they get stock picking wrong and market timing wrong,” Swedroe said.
‘Barron’s Roundtable’ panelists Ben Levisohn, Al Root and Megan Leonhardt discuss the top three stories from the week.
As the new year gets underway, some Americans may be on the hunt for new jobs.
The 2025 edition of LinkedIn’s “Jobs on the Rise” report released on Tuesday identified positions that have been seeing notable growth in the U.S. in the past few years.
Two roles related to artificial intelligence – artificial intelligence engineer and artificial intelligence consultant – placed first and second in the U.S., according to the report.
The 2025 edition of LinkedIn’s “Jobs on the Rise” report released on Tuesday identified positions that have been seeing notable growth in the U.S. in the past few years. (Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The career-focused website linked that to the massive increase in demand that the AI sector is experiencing.
In addition to AI, a variety of other sectors were represented in the top 10 of the report.
LinkedIn used growth rates calculated from millions of positions that LinkedIn users stepped into during a timeframe spanning Jan. 1, 2022 to July 31, 2024 to craft its U.S. list of booming positions.
The career-focused website linked that to the massive increase in demand that the AI sector is experiencing. (Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The 10 jobs at the top of LinkedIn’s 2025 report included the following:
Artificial intelligence engineer
Artificial intelligence consultant
Physical therapist
Workforce development manager
Travel adviser
Event coordinator
Director of development
Outside sales representative
Sustainability specialist
Security guard
The U.S. report featured a total of 25 jobs in its ranking, some of which were not present in past iterations of “LinkedIn Jobs on the Rise.”
For instance, two positions from the top 10 fast-growing roles – travel adviser and event coordinator – made appearances in 2025 thanks to people taking more trips and attending more live events in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to LinkedIn.
The U.S. report featured a total of 25 jobs in its ranking, some of which were not present in past iterations of “LinkedIn Jobs on the Rise.” (iStock / iStock)
Some other roles showing up in the top 25 job ranking for the first time this year included artificial intelligence researcher, community planner, land agent, bridge engineer and commissioning manager.
LinkedIn also noted that “almost half of this year’s Jobs on the Rise in the U.S. didn’t exist 25 years ago – including roles like Artificial Intelligence Engineer, Workforce Development Manager and Chief Growth officers – reflecting the evolving world of work and emerging opportunities that jobs seekers may not have considered before.”
Two roles related to artificial intelligence – artificial intelligence engineer and artificial intelligence consultant – placed first and second in the U.S., according to the report. (iStock / iStock)
In late October, ResumeTemplates.com reported 56% of American full-time workers indicated they were “already looking for a new job or plan to start” in 2025.
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Nvidia — Shares gained 2.5% after the company announced new gaming chips for PCs utilizing its Blackwell technology at CES in Las Vegas. Getty Images , Shutterstock — Shares of the two image databases were soaring after the companies announced a $3.7 billion merger . Getty rose 45%, while Shutterstock added 24%. The new company will keep the Getty name. Tesla — The electric vehicle company declined 2% after Bank of America downgraded shares to neutral from buy, citing execution risks and a steep valuation. Carvana — The online call selling platform popped 3.8% on the heels of RBC’s upgrade to outperform from sector perform. RBC said a recent pullback creates an opportunity for investors to buy in. Aurora Innovation — Shares surged 37% after the self-driving technology company announced a partnership with Nvidia and Continental to roll out driverless trucks. Inari Medical — Shares popped 21% after Stryker announced plans to buy the medical device maker for roughly $4.9 billion, or $80 per share in cash. Stryker shares slipped nearly 2%. FuboTV — Shares added 2%, a day after soaring 251% on the news Disney will merge its Hulu + Live TV service with Fubo. Disney will own 70% of the company, while Fubo will own 30%. Micron Technology — The chipmaker jumped 3.7%, adding to gains from the prior session when Micron Technology closed up 10%. The move comes after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang , during a keynote address at CES 2025, said it’s sourcing “G7 memory from Micron” for its new AI-powered graphics processing units. Ulta Beauty — The beauty retailer saw shares rising 1% in premarket after the company announced the retirement of CEO Dave Kimbell, who will be succeeded by Chief Operating Officer Kecia Steelman. Ulta also hiked its outlook, saying its fourth-quarter operating margin will land above the high end of its previously projected range. Uber Technologies – Shares rose more than 2% after the company announced it’s partnering with artificial intelligence chip giant Nvidia to develop AI-powered autonomous driving technology . Uber also announced that it’s working with Bank of America to repurchase $1.5 billion of its common stock through an accelerated share repurchase program. — CNBC’s Yun Li, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Sean Conlon, Michelle Fox and Sarah Min contributed reporting
Federal Reserve Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller pose for a photo, during a break at a conference on monetary policy at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, in Palo Alto, California, U.S. May 6, 2022. Picture taken May 6, 2022.
Ann Saphir | Reuters
The early departure of the Federal Reserve’s top financial regulator allows for a more industry-friendly official to take his place, the latest boon for U.S. banks riding a wave of post-election optimism.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Monday that he plans to step down from his role by next month to avoid a protracted legal battle with the Trump administration, which had weighed seeking his removal.
The announcement, a reversal from Barr’s previous comments on the matter, ends his supervisory role roughly 18 months earlier than planned. It also removes a possible impediment to Trump’s deregulatory agenda.
Banks and other financial stocks were among the big winners after the election of Donald Trump in November on speculation that softer regulation and increased deal activity, including mergers, were on the way. Weeks after his victory, Trump selected hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as his nominee for Treasury Secretary.
Trump has yet to name nominees for the three major bank regulatory agencies — the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Now, with Barr’s resignation, a more precise image of incoming bank regulation is forming.
Trump is limited to picking one of two Republican Fed governors for vice chair of supervision: Michelle Bowman or Christopher Waller.
Waller declined to comment, while Bowman didn’t immediately respond to request for comment.
Bowman, whose name had already appeared on short lists for possible Trump administration roles and is considered the frontrunner, has been a critic of Barr’s attempt to force American banks to hold more capital — a proposal known as Basel III Endgame.
“The regulatory approach we took failed to consider or deliver a reasonable proposal, one aligned with the original Basel agreement yet suited to the particulars of the U.S. banking system,” Bowman said in a November speech.
Bowman, a former community banker and Kansas bank commissioner, could take on “industry-friendly reforms” around a number of sore spots for banks, according to Alexandra Steinberg Barrage, a former FDIC executive and partner at Troutman Pepper Locke.
That includes what bank executives have called an opaque Fed stress test process, long turnaround times for merger approvals and what bankers have said are sometimes unfair confidential bank exams, Barrage said.
Easier ‘Endgame’?
When it comes to the Basel Endgame, first announced in July 2023 before a toned-down proposal was released last year, it’s now more likely that its ultimate form will be far gentler for the industry, versus versions that would’ve forced large banks to withhold tens of billions of dollars in capital.
Barr led the interagency effort to draft the sweeping Basel Endgame, whose initial version would’ve boosted capital requirements for the world’s largest banks by roughly 19%. Now, Barrage and others see a final version that is far less onerous.
“Barr’s replacement could still work with the other agencies to propose a new B3 Endgame rule, but we think such a proposal would be capital-neutral industry-wide,” Stifel analyst Brian Gardner said Monday in a note. “Bowman voted against the 2023 proposal, and we expect she would lead any B3 re-write in a different direction.”
If lenders ultimately beat back efforts to force them to hold more capital, that would enable them to boost share buybacks, among other possible uses for the money.
Bank stocks traded higher Monday after Barr’s announcement, with the KBW Bank Index rising as much as 2.4% during the session. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, which have both garnered headlines for regulatory matters last year, were among the day’s biggest gainers, each rising more than 2%.
Notably, Barr is not resigning from his role as one of seven Fed governors, which preserves the current 4-3 advantage of Democrat appointees on the Fed board, according to Klaros Group co-founder Brian Graham.
“Barr’s resignation of the vice chair role, while remaining a governor, is actually very clever,” Graham said. “It preserves the balance of power for board votes for a year or so, and it constrains the choices for his replacement to those currently serving on the board.”