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CEO of property firm Damac expresses concerns over ‘expensive’ Dubai

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Dubai's property market will continue to grow, DAMAC chairman says

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Dubai’s property scene is showing no sign of cooling off, as 2024 is on track to be another record year in terms of sales figures and property values, according to local real estate firms.

Increasing demand for property, especially in the luxury space, is boosting prices not just of homes, but of everything else in the city — just as the United Arab Emirates is expected to emerge as the world’s top wealth magnet for the third consecutive year.

For Hussain Sajwani, chairman of Dubai property giant Damac, that spells both good and bad news.

“What concerns me a little bit in Dubai is that [it’s] becoming an expensive city, and I’ve said this in the past, that Dubai [is] going to be [an] expensive city. Because whenever there is so much demand, and especially when talented people, average people are coming, they create more demand,” Sajwani told CNBC’s Dan Murphy from Riyadh on Tuesday.

“So today, to get a seat in a school is difficult … and of course, the business is going to raise prices, and inflation [is] going to be high, so Dubai is going to be an expensive city,” the chairman said. “And I hope [the] government find ways and means. And it’s not easy to find ways and means when there is a continuous influx of people to the city.”

The latest Dubai property market numbers tell a story of burgeoning demand. In July of 2024, property sales reached 49.6 billion dirhams ($13.5 billion), a 31.63% increase from the same period in 2023, according to locally-based brokerage firm Elite Merit Real Estate.

“The first half of 2024 alone saw over 43,000 property transactions valued at approximately AED122.9 billion, marking a 30% increase from the previous year,” the firm’s report released on Sept. 10 wrote, adding that the growth is due in part to the “rapid absorption of new inventory.” Around 80% of the units launched since 2022 have already been sold, the report estimates.

Aerial view of cityscape and skyscraper at sunset in Dubai Marina.

Lu Shaoji | Moment | Getty Images

“The Dubai property market is doing extremely well, and I think we’re going to continue to do well, because the demand in Europe is amazing,” Sajwani said. “Everybody wants to go to Dubai, from the taxi driver to the waiter to the businessman … Dubai now is attracting a lot of not only wealthy people, but a lot of talented people. And it’s growing in a different level from pre-Covid.”

The Damac founder noted the way in which the Covid-19 period supercharged Dubai’s popularity as a place to live: while much of the world remained in lockdowns, the emirate encouraged tourism and attracted new residents with the help of visas for remote workers and entrepreneurship.

“Dubai today is a global city, by all means, and attracting a lot of talent and a lot of businesses, we’re going to continue to grow,” Sajwani said.

Dubai has experienced a volatile boom-and-bust cycle in the past, most notably during its 2008-2009 crisis period, when the emirates’ property market crashed, and numerous investors had to default on their debts. Asked if he was worried about a similar cycle repeated itself, Sajwani expressed confidence that the system was different now.

Asked if Dubai is more stable now, Sajwani replied: “100%.”

“One of the key reason for that is that the regulations the Dubai government brought in after [the] ’09 or ’08 crash has been very good regulations. Very, very strict on developers, on customers, and on zoning,” he said. “So that regulation is helping — not everybody just can come and enter the market and just launch a project … There is very strict escrow, so the customer’s money is very much protected, and that’s what makes the market very efficient.”

Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.

Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.

Recession risks rising

On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.

The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.

“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”

Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.

Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.

While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.

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Economics

Tariffs to spike inflation, stunt growth and raise recession risks, Goldman says

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces that his administration has reached a deal with elite law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom during a swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office at the White House on March 28, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

With decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.

The investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman did note that product and country exclusions eventually will pull that increase down to 9 percentage points.

When the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team led by head of global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the economy.

In a note published on Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”

Inflation above goal

On inflation, the firm sees its preferred core measure, excluding food and energy prices, to hit 3.5% in 2025, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the prior forecast and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

That in turn will come with weak economic growth: Just a 0.2% annualized growth rate in the first quarter and 1% for the full year when measured from the fourth quarter of 2024 to Q4 of 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from the prior forecast. In addition, the Wall Street firm now sees unemployment hitting 4.5%, a 0.3 percentage point raise from the previous forecast.

Taken together, Goldman now expects a 35% chance of recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% in the prior outlook.

The forecast paints a growing chance of a stagflation economy, with low growth and high inflation. The last time the U.S. saw stagflation was in the late 1970s and early ’80s. Back then, the Paul Volcker-led Fed dramatically raised interest rates, sending the economy into recession as the central bank chose fighting inflation over supporting economic growth.

Three rate cuts

Goldman’s economists do not see that being the case this time. In fact, the firm now expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate three times this year, assuming quarter percentage point increments, up from a previous projection of two rate cuts.

“We have pulled the lone 2026 cut in our Fed forecast forward into 2025 and now expect three consecutive cuts this year in July, September, and November, which would leave our terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%,” the Goldman economists said, referring to the fed funds rate, down from 4.25% to 4.50% today.

Though the extent of the latest tariffs is still not known, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump is pushing his team toward more aggressive levies that could mean an across-the-board hit of 20% to U.S. trading partners.

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