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CEO of property firm Damac expresses concerns over ‘expensive’ Dubai

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Dubai's property market will continue to grow, DAMAC chairman says

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Dubai’s property scene is showing no sign of cooling off, as 2024 is on track to be another record year in terms of sales figures and property values, according to local real estate firms.

Increasing demand for property, especially in the luxury space, is boosting prices not just of homes, but of everything else in the city — just as the United Arab Emirates is expected to emerge as the world’s top wealth magnet for the third consecutive year.

For Hussain Sajwani, chairman of Dubai property giant Damac, that spells both good and bad news.

“What concerns me a little bit in Dubai is that [it’s] becoming an expensive city, and I’ve said this in the past, that Dubai [is] going to be [an] expensive city. Because whenever there is so much demand, and especially when talented people, average people are coming, they create more demand,” Sajwani told CNBC’s Dan Murphy from Riyadh on Tuesday.

“So today, to get a seat in a school is difficult … and of course, the business is going to raise prices, and inflation [is] going to be high, so Dubai is going to be an expensive city,” the chairman said. “And I hope [the] government find ways and means. And it’s not easy to find ways and means when there is a continuous influx of people to the city.”

The latest Dubai property market numbers tell a story of burgeoning demand. In July of 2024, property sales reached 49.6 billion dirhams ($13.5 billion), a 31.63% increase from the same period in 2023, according to locally-based brokerage firm Elite Merit Real Estate.

“The first half of 2024 alone saw over 43,000 property transactions valued at approximately AED122.9 billion, marking a 30% increase from the previous year,” the firm’s report released on Sept. 10 wrote, adding that the growth is due in part to the “rapid absorption of new inventory.” Around 80% of the units launched since 2022 have already been sold, the report estimates.

Aerial view of cityscape and skyscraper at sunset in Dubai Marina.

Lu Shaoji | Moment | Getty Images

“The Dubai property market is doing extremely well, and I think we’re going to continue to do well, because the demand in Europe is amazing,” Sajwani said. “Everybody wants to go to Dubai, from the taxi driver to the waiter to the businessman … Dubai now is attracting a lot of not only wealthy people, but a lot of talented people. And it’s growing in a different level from pre-Covid.”

The Damac founder noted the way in which the Covid-19 period supercharged Dubai’s popularity as a place to live: while much of the world remained in lockdowns, the emirate encouraged tourism and attracted new residents with the help of visas for remote workers and entrepreneurship.

“Dubai today is a global city, by all means, and attracting a lot of talent and a lot of businesses, we’re going to continue to grow,” Sajwani said.

Dubai has experienced a volatile boom-and-bust cycle in the past, most notably during its 2008-2009 crisis period, when the emirates’ property market crashed, and numerous investors had to default on their debts. Asked if he was worried about a similar cycle repeated itself, Sajwani expressed confidence that the system was different now.

Asked if Dubai is more stable now, Sajwani replied: “100%.”

“One of the key reason for that is that the regulations the Dubai government brought in after [the] ’09 or ’08 crash has been very good regulations. Very, very strict on developers, on customers, and on zoning,” he said. “So that regulation is helping — not everybody just can come and enter the market and just launch a project … There is very strict escrow, so the customer’s money is very much protected, and that’s what makes the market very efficient.”

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Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

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