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China doubles down on promoting yuan as confidence in U.S. dollar ebbs

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A bank employee count China’s renminbi (RMB) or yuan notes next to U.S. dollar notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand, January 26, 2023.

Athit Perawongmetha | Reuters

China is devising more ways for foreign institutions to use the yuan, as international confidence in the U.S. dollar falters.

The moves aim at challenging the greenback, experts said, even as the U.S. dollar remains by far the world’s predominant currency. The timing is favorable as the U.S. dollar index has tumbled more than 9% this year — while the offshore yuan has strengthened more than 2% against the dollar.

In a sign of growing resolve in Beijing to lure the world away from the dollar, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng in a speech last week at the high-profile Lujiazui Forum discussed “how to weaken excessive reliance on a single sovereign currency.”

He also announced plans to set up a center for digital yuan internationalization in Shanghai and promote trading of yuan foreign exchange futures. Beijing has already rolled out a digital version of its currency to replace some cash and coins in circulation.

Much of Beijing’s recent moves focus on the futures market.

Three major Chinese exchanges announced that starting last week, qualified foreign institutional investors would be able to trade 16 more futures and options contracts listed in mainland China.

The commodities covered include natural rubber, lead and tin, according to releases on the Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou exchanges.

Very bullish on the yuan playing a bigger role internationally in the medium term: StanChart

That follows the addition of dozens of other tradable futures contracts for foreign institutional investors earlier this year, according to Zhou Ji, macro foreign exchange innovation analyst of Nanhua Futures, a Hangzhou-based brokerage focused on futures products and research.

Zhou pointed out that besides expanding the range of hedging products for international institutions, those contracts increase the influence of the yuan in the global commodity pricing system.

In another step toward encouraging global investors to use the yuan, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced in late May it was gathering feedback for a proposal to allow foreign currencies to be used as collateral for trades settled in yuan.

Other recent moves, though incremental, include China allowing qualified foreign investors to participate in on-exchange exchange-traded fund options trading from Oct. 9 for hedging purposes. Earlier this year, authorities also reportedly announced a 500-yuan fee waiver for international financial institutions to open a local account for accessing the bond market.

Morgan Stanley in January announced its local subsidiary could officially begin offering brokerage services for mainland China commodity futures, and planned to expand to equity and fixed-income futures and options once it received necessary qualifications.

Such access has been years in the making, as the U.S. financial giant said it received China’s approval back in May 2023 to set up a wholly owned brokerage in the country.

While global finance institutions and investors have long been interested in diversifying to China, Beijing’s strict controls on capital outflows and relatively opaque system have discouraged large-scale buying of mainland China assets.

While some worry about the unpredictability of U.S. policies in recent months, China has yet to present itself as a dependable alternative, said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

“China’s rule of law is inferior to the U.S., it does not offer a large and deep pool of liquid assets that is open to foreign investors like the U.S.,” he said, adding that Beijing has not been sufficiently addressing the geopolitical risks tied to its markets.

Global payments

It’s not just investment products. Over the years, China has developed a sprawling network of offshore yuan clearing banks and promoted the cross-border interbank payment system.

Increasingly, Chinese banks lending to emerging market economies have switched to the yuan instead of the U.S. dollar, partly due to lower lending costs, according to analysis published last month by the U.S. Federal Reserve

The world’s second-largest economy has also been promoting bilateral trade settlement in yuan, and in February announced $100 billion for businesses in Hong Kong to access yuan-denominated financing.

“China appears to be accelerating its de-dollarization efforts, though progress remains uneven,” said Dan Wang, director of Eurasia Group’s China team, though she noted an increase in yuan-denominated settlements of cross-border payments between energy and commodities companies in China and abroad.

Another trend supporting yuan’s internationalization is Chinese companies’ expansion overseas, especially smaller businesses selling goods online.

Startup FundPark said since its financial partners Goldman Sachs and HSBC hold offshore yuan, China-based customers can easily use it for both operations in China and overseas.

Chinese authorities also subsidize some of the interest costs for loans denominated in offshore yuan, said Bear Huo, FundPark’s China general manager. He said overall use of the currency remains low but growing, although he declined to share specific numbers.

At a global level, the Chinese yuan lost some ground in international use in May, according to Swift’s RMB Tracker. The data showed that the yuan accounted for 2.89% of global payments by value in May, the sixth most-active currency – down from 5th place in the prior month.

The U.S. dollar accounted for 48.46% of global payments, followed by the euro at 23.56%, according to Swift.

De-dollarization

Beijing’s latest efforts to promote the yuan coincide with a wider and more concerted shift away from the dollar in Asia recently. The region is gradually reducing its reliance on the U.S. dollar, driven by geopolitical tensions, shifting monetary dynamics, and increased use of currency hedging. 

Policy uncertainty by U.S. President Donald Trump has fueled a notable selloff in the greenback, which saw its steepest losses of the year in April.

Overseas investors looking to diversify away from America and hedge against U.S. assets are also boosting the yuan, said Ning Sun, senior EM strategist at State Street Global.

“Our proprietary data indicates strong inflows to CNY, not a surprise given the good performance of CNY financial assets. Our data tracks only institutional investors, who are still very much underweight in CNY,” said Ning Sun, senior EM strategist at State Street Global.

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Big Tech Enterprise Borrowing Reaches $135 Billion as Hyperscalers Fund AI Infrastructure

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Big Tech Enterprise Borrowing Reaches $135 Billion

Corporate debt markets are undergoing a major structural shift as major technology hyperscalers execute unprecedented debt offerings to finance large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure. According to institutional market estimates, the annual value of debt issued by top technology firms reached $135 billion in 2026, marking a massive increase from the $35 billion annual average recorded between 2020 and 2024. This wave of corporate borrowing reflects the immense capital required to build next-generation data centers, secure specialized silicon, and build energy infrastructure.

The scale of AI-driven capital expenditures is reshaping corporate finance frameworks. While tech giants historically maintained fortress balance sheets dominated by cash reserves and minimal debt liabilities, the speed of the AI infrastructure deployment race has led corporate treasurers to access debt capital markets. These multi-billion-dollar corporate bond issuances are competing directly with sovereign debt for institutional investment capital.

Credit rating agencies and fixed income analysts are evaluating the long-term balance sheet implications of this corporate borrowing boom. While technology hyperscalers possess substantial revenue streams and strong operating margins, the high interest rate environment means new debt issuances carry higher coupon burdens. Financial analysts are closely tracking return-on-investment (ROI) metrics to ensure capital outlays generate sufficient cash flow to service expanding debt obligations over the coming decade.

Despite elevated borrowing costs, primary market demand for high-grade technology bonds remains robust. Institutional asset managers, pension funds, and insurance firms are absorbing new issuances, attracted by investment-grade credit ratings and attractive yields. However, the concentration of corporate debt issuance within the technology sector highlights growing exposure to enterprise technology spend cycles.

Why This Information Matters
The massive surge in technology sector debt issuance impacts broader credit markets and institutional liquidity. For corporate leaders and investors, understanding how major enterprise tech firms fund infrastructure expansion provides key insights into market interest rate dynamics, corporate credit availability, and the long-term ROI expectations driving modern corporate finance.

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S&P 500 Outperforms Amid Strong Corporate Earnings as Treasury Yields Cap Equity Multiples

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S&P 500 Outperforms Amid Strong Corporate Earnings as Treasury Yields Cap Equity Multiples

Financial markets opened September on a firm footing following a solid performance in August, where the S&P 500 gained 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 3.9%. Corporate earnings across major index constituents showed impressive momentum, with S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth topping historic averages. However, despite robust corporate balance sheets, equity market valuations face headwinds as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated near 4.75%.

The current financial environment is characterized by a strong divergence between corporate earnings resilience and bond market pressure. Enterprise technology leaders, financial institutions, and consumer sectors reported strong profit margins, benefiting from operational efficiency gains and disciplined cost management. Yet, institutional investors remain cautious about expanding price-to-earnings multiples when risk-free benchmark bond yields offer yields near 4.7%.

Fixed income markets continue to reflect restrictive monetary conditions. The broader aggregate bond market recorded flat total returns year-to-date, while fixed income yields—such as 30-day SEC yields on core bond funds—stayed above 4.6%. This yield profile provides institutional and retail investors with meaningful cash flow returns without taking on equity market downside risk, creating a competitive alternative for institutional capital allocation.

Portfolio managers and investment strategists recommend a disciplined, quality-oriented approach entering the final quarter of 2026. Rather than chasing speculative momentum, capital flows are favoring companies with strong cash flow generation, low debt-to-equity ratios, and robust pricing power capable of withstanding elevated input costs.

Why This Information Matters
The tension between strong corporate earnings and elevated bond yields directly impacts portfolio allocations and retirement wealth. Individual investors and wealth managers must balance equity market participation with fixed-income yield opportunities, ensuring portfolios are diversified against sudden valuation adjustments caused by fluctuating benchmark interest rates.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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