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China is tackling weak consumption with child care subsidies

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Customers browse children’s clothing at a wholesale store in Chongqing, China, on March 1, 2025.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — Among the top five priorities China has laid out for boosting consumption is child care subsidies.

It’s an effort to tackle the country’s rapid drop in births, while freeing up cash for discretionary spending.

As with many Chinese policies, the plan released Sunday only lays out a framework: “Strengthen support for childbirth and raising children. Research and establish a system for subsidizing child care.” That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

Beijing is moving relatively quickly, however.

The National Health Commission is already drafting an operational plan for subsidizing child care, Li Chunlin, deputy director of the economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters Monday.

Concrete measures to boost consumption in China are needed for continued market rally

A national-level policy of 100 billion yuan ($13.84 billion) for child care subsidies could come soon this year, Jianguang Shen, chief economist at Chinese e-commerce company JD.com, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

That’s based on his estimate of around 9 million births this year, and monthly handouts of around 800 yuan to parents, regardless of income, Shen said. He noted half of the cash could come in the form of vouchers for baby products to prevent households from saving the money.

China recorded 9.54 million births last year, up by 520,000 from the prior year, as many locals considered 2024 an auspicious year for births based on the Chinese zodiac’s year of the Dragon. However, World Bank data showed that the fertility rate, defined as births per woman, was 1.2 in China in 2022, down from 1.8 in 2012.

“The key is to increase fiscal resources,” Shen said, noting that in the context of 300 billion yuan for trade-in subsidies, 100 billion yuan for child care isn’t too much to ask for. He forecasts around 3.5% to 4.5% growth in retail sales this year.

China’s retail sales grew by a modest 3.5% last year, according to official data. The January to February period, which covers the annul Lunar New Year holiday, saw a modest pick up to 4% year on year, the statistics bureau said Monday.

How much is enough?

In a glimpse of what is already being rolled out, the Inner Mongolian capital of Hohhot, last week announced subsidies of up to 100,000 yuan for children of registered locals who live and work in the city.

The couple can enjoy a one-time subsidy of 10,000 yuan upon the birth of their first child. Their second child is eligible for 10,000 yuan in annual subsidies until the age of five. If the couple have a third child, the city will provide 10,000 yuan each year until the child turns 10.

The tech hub of Shenzhen this month said it is considering a smaller-scale subsidy. State media noted that National Health Commission data as of October showed several local governments in more than 20 provinces were already offering some kind of child care subsidy.

“If the childcare subsidy in Hohhot can be extended to the whole country, it could amount to another 0.2% of retail sales in the initial year,” Citi analysts said in a report Tuesday. They said the subsidy could be most meaningful for low-income families and “could become more significant if the central government steps in to share the burden.”

“It remains to be seen if it will be effective in boosting fertility rate in the longer term,” the Citi analysts said, noting the total cost of raising a child in China is reportedly around 538,000 yuan, not to mention the opportunity cost for working mothers.

The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 23,119 yuan in 2024, while that of urban residents was more than two times higher at 54,188 yuan, according to official figures.

Short-term subsidies for child care could still significantly ease financial pressure on Chinese households.

When Beijing resident Song Jingli, now 41, gave birth to her daughter nearly 10 years ago, there was no child care support. Song said she made 8,000 yuan a month at the time, and day care cost 4,000 yuan.

“We didn’t have a choice,” she said. My husband “needed to go to work, I needed to go to work, and my parents-in-law were not able to take care of her.”

By the time her daughter was in kindergarten, Song said, she was able to benefit from a relatively new policy that halved the cost to around 2,000 yuan. The new policies on child care are “right to the point,” she said. “The only pity [is] it’s too late for us who were born in the 1980s. Hopefully younger generations can benefit from these policies.”

What to watch next

China’s efforts to boost consumption also include calls for increasing the minimum wage, stabilizing the stock market, boosting farmers’ income and resolving payment delays for businesses.

“The direction of [China’s] consumption-boosting measures is correct,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Monday, “but both funding and implementation matter for the effectiveness of China’s consumption stimulus.”

“The announcement of a nationwide childcare subsidy and the April Politburo meeting are key to watch in coming months,” the analysts said, referring to a high-level policy meeting typically held in late April.

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Israel-Hamas conflict a potential business risk in eToro IPO filing

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Yoni Assia, Co-Founder and CEO of eToro, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, on May 2, 2023.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

In eToro‘s IPO filing, ahead of the company’s market debut on Wednesday, the stock trading platform spent over 1,500 words spelling out the potential risks of operating in Israel, home to corporate headquarters.

While the current military conflict between Israel and Hamas hasn’t “materially impacted” business, “the continuation of the war and any escalation or expansion of the war could have a negative impact on both global and regional conditions and may adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations,” eToro wrote in a section of the filing titled “Risks related to our operations in Israel.”

The company, which lets users trade stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies, was founded in 2007 by brothers Yoni and Ronen Assia and David Ring, and is based in Bnei Brak, near Tel Aviv.

In its prospectus, eToro referenced the attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas on Israel. In the year and a half since then, the two sides have mostly been at war in the Gaza Strip, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed and much of the area has been made uninhabitable.

Tensions have also escalated with other designated militant groups in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

“It is possible that these hostilities will escalate in the future into a greater regional conflict, and that additional terrorist organizations and, possibly, countries, will actively join the hostilities,” eToro wrote, adding that the magnitude of the conflict is “difficult to predict.”

Yoni Assia, eToro’s CEO, told CNBC in an interview that the company’s business is global, with operations worldwide. Regarding the challenges of being in Israel, Yoni Assia said “everything is in the risk factors.”

“We do hope to see more peaceful times,” he said. “It’s better for everyone and for our employees from a business point of view.” 

EToro, which competes with Robinhood, had its Nasdaq debut on Wednesday. The stock popped 29% a day after eToro priced shares above the expected range. At the close of trading, the company was valued at about $5.4 billion.

EToro’s IPO comes as several tech companies get set to test the public markets following an extended drought dating back to the soaring inflation of 2022.

After the attacks of Oct.7, thousands of Israelis were called up for extended active reserve duty that caused some disruption to the country’s flourishing tech community. Ongoing obligations could “impact our competitive position and cause our sales to decrease,” eToro wrote.

Israel has also faced some backlash for its military campaign in Gaza.

The eToro filing cited International Criminal Court warrants for the arrests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister of defense, and calls for boycotts from activist groups as potential roadblocks for the business.

The country has also been hit with credit downgrades from Fitch, Moody’s and S&P Global that could harm eToro’s operations, the filing said.

Etoro said that intensified cyberattacks since 2023, and potential damages from armed attacks, could raise costs or incapacitate its workforce due to safety concerns.

The company also highlighted tax law differences between the U.S. and Israel and the location of its executives as a potential risk factor.

“It may be difficult to enforce a U.S. judgment against us, our officers and directors in Israel or the United States, or to assert U.S. securities laws claims in Israel or serve process on our officers and directors,” eToro wrote.

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Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell talks to guests as he arrives to speak at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference held by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 15, 2025 in Washington, DC.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux.

In remarks that focused on the central bank’s policy framework review, last done in the summer of 2020, Powell noted that conditions have changed significantly over the past five years.

During the period, the Fed witnessed a period of surging inflation, pushing it to historically aggressive interest rate hikes. Powell said that even with longer-term inflation expectations largely in line with the Fed’s 2% target, the era of near-zero rates is not likely to return anytime soon.

“Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,” Powell said in prepared remarks for the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks.”

The Fed held its benchmark borrowing rate near zero for seven years following the financial crisis in 2008. Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, most recently trading at 4.33%.

The “supply shocks” remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a difficult balancing act between supporting employment and controlling inflation.

Though he did not mention President Donald Trump’s tariffs in his Thursday remarks, the central bank chief in recent days has noted the likelihood that tariffs will slow growth and boost inflation. However, the extent of either impact is difficult to gauge, particularly as Trump recently has backed off the more aggressive duties pending a 90-day negotiating window.

Nevertheless, the Fed has been reluctant to ease policy after cutting its benchmark rate by a full percentage point last year.

Looking back and forward

As for the ongoing framework review, the Fed will seed to develop a five-year plan for how it will guide decisions and the way the moves will be relayed to the public.

Powell said the process this time will look at a number of factors.

They include the way the Fed communicates its expectations for the future, while also entailing a look back at ways it can adjust the last review.

During the tumult of the summer of 2020, the Fed announced a “flexible average inflation target” approach that would allow inflation to run a little hotter than normal in the interest of providing full and inclusive employment. However, inflation targeting soon became a dead issue as prices soared in the wake of the Covid pandemic, forcing the Fed into a series of historically aggressive rate hikes.

The current review will look at how the Fed considers “shortfalls” in its inflation and employment goals.

Powell and his colleagues initially dismissed the 2021 inflation surge as “transitory” because of pandemic-specific factors. However, several Fed officials have said the 2020 framework adoption did not factor into their decision to hold rates near zero even as inflation was rising.

“In our discussions so far, participants have indicated that they thought it would be appropriate to reconsider the language around shortfalls,” he said. “And at our meeting last week, we had a similar take on average inflation targeting. We will ensure that our new consensus statement is robust to a wide range of economic environments and developments.”

Further addressing the idea of potential supply shocks and their policy impact, Powell said the review will focus on communication.

“While academics and market participants generally have viewed the [Fed’s] communications as effective, there is always room for improvement,” he said. “In periods with larger, more frequent, or more disparate shocks, effective communication requires that we convey the uncertainty that surrounds our understanding of the economy and the outlook. We will examine ways to improve along that dimension as we move forward.”

Powell did not give a specific date on when the review will be completed, only saying that he expects it in “coming months.” For the last review, Powell used his annual remarks at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming retreat to outline the policy.

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