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China is tackling weak consumption with child care subsidies

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Customers browse children’s clothing at a wholesale store in Chongqing, China, on March 1, 2025.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — Among the top five priorities China has laid out for boosting consumption is child care subsidies.

It’s an effort to tackle the country’s rapid drop in births, while freeing up cash for discretionary spending.

As with many Chinese policies, the plan released Sunday only lays out a framework: “Strengthen support for childbirth and raising children. Research and establish a system for subsidizing child care.” That’s according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.

Beijing is moving relatively quickly, however.

The National Health Commission is already drafting an operational plan for subsidizing child care, Li Chunlin, deputy director of the economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters Monday.

Concrete measures to boost consumption in China are needed for continued market rally

A national-level policy of 100 billion yuan ($13.84 billion) for child care subsidies could come soon this year, Jianguang Shen, chief economist at Chinese e-commerce company JD.com, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

That’s based on his estimate of around 9 million births this year, and monthly handouts of around 800 yuan to parents, regardless of income, Shen said. He noted half of the cash could come in the form of vouchers for baby products to prevent households from saving the money.

China recorded 9.54 million births last year, up by 520,000 from the prior year, as many locals considered 2024 an auspicious year for births based on the Chinese zodiac’s year of the Dragon. However, World Bank data showed that the fertility rate, defined as births per woman, was 1.2 in China in 2022, down from 1.8 in 2012.

“The key is to increase fiscal resources,” Shen said, noting that in the context of 300 billion yuan for trade-in subsidies, 100 billion yuan for child care isn’t too much to ask for. He forecasts around 3.5% to 4.5% growth in retail sales this year.

China’s retail sales grew by a modest 3.5% last year, according to official data. The January to February period, which covers the annul Lunar New Year holiday, saw a modest pick up to 4% year on year, the statistics bureau said Monday.

How much is enough?

In a glimpse of what is already being rolled out, the Inner Mongolian capital of Hohhot, last week announced subsidies of up to 100,000 yuan for children of registered locals who live and work in the city.

The couple can enjoy a one-time subsidy of 10,000 yuan upon the birth of their first child. Their second child is eligible for 10,000 yuan in annual subsidies until the age of five. If the couple have a third child, the city will provide 10,000 yuan each year until the child turns 10.

The tech hub of Shenzhen this month said it is considering a smaller-scale subsidy. State media noted that National Health Commission data as of October showed several local governments in more than 20 provinces were already offering some kind of child care subsidy.

“If the childcare subsidy in Hohhot can be extended to the whole country, it could amount to another 0.2% of retail sales in the initial year,” Citi analysts said in a report Tuesday. They said the subsidy could be most meaningful for low-income families and “could become more significant if the central government steps in to share the burden.”

“It remains to be seen if it will be effective in boosting fertility rate in the longer term,” the Citi analysts said, noting the total cost of raising a child in China is reportedly around 538,000 yuan, not to mention the opportunity cost for working mothers.

The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 23,119 yuan in 2024, while that of urban residents was more than two times higher at 54,188 yuan, according to official figures.

Short-term subsidies for child care could still significantly ease financial pressure on Chinese households.

When Beijing resident Song Jingli, now 41, gave birth to her daughter nearly 10 years ago, there was no child care support. Song said she made 8,000 yuan a month at the time, and day care cost 4,000 yuan.

“We didn’t have a choice,” she said. My husband “needed to go to work, I needed to go to work, and my parents-in-law were not able to take care of her.”

By the time her daughter was in kindergarten, Song said, she was able to benefit from a relatively new policy that halved the cost to around 2,000 yuan. The new policies on child care are “right to the point,” she said. “The only pity [is] it’s too late for us who were born in the 1980s. Hopefully younger generations can benefit from these policies.”

What to watch next

China’s efforts to boost consumption also include calls for increasing the minimum wage, stabilizing the stock market, boosting farmers’ income and resolving payment delays for businesses.

“The direction of [China’s] consumption-boosting measures is correct,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Monday, “but both funding and implementation matter for the effectiveness of China’s consumption stimulus.”

“The announcement of a nationwide childcare subsidy and the April Politburo meeting are key to watch in coming months,” the analysts said, referring to a high-level policy meeting typically held in late April.

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AAPL, NVDA, GS, PFE and more

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Systems are handling record volume more efficiently than during Covid crash

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Lynn Martin, NYSE President, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box outside the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 22, 2025.

Gerry Miller | CNBC

 The great American entrepreneur Henry Ford once said, “The only real security that a man can have in this world is a reserve of knowledge, experience and ability.” In surveying the recent volatility in global financial markets from my perch as president of the New York Stock Exchange, I believe this notion remains as true today as it did 100 years ago.

After 233 years, the New York Stock Exchange remains the beating heart of the global financial system. In recent weeks, the faces of our trading floor have been seen on the front pages of newspapers from New York to Tokyo. Our real-time market data is on constant display across television news and social media.

From my conversations with investors — ranging from everyday retail traders to the world’s largest asset managers — I thoroughly understand the challenges posed by the recent market turmoil.

Separate from the ups and downs of our markets, though, Americans should feel assured by another trend from recent weeks: The infrastructure and operational practices underpinning our markets are the envy of the world and have met the challenge posed by recent volatility.

U.S. markets come from humble beginnings. The New York Stock Exchange was started in 1792 by a group of twenty-four stockbrokers who met outdoors under a buttonwood tree. That has evolved from a structure which was once dominated by people shouting “buy” or “sell” to one that today blends the best of human judgment interacting with state-of-the-art technology.

Since April 3, our designated market makers have taken manual control of the opening and closing auctions at more than two times their usual rate to mitigate the market’s extreme volatility. This flexibility, unique to our model, has fostered greater engagement from market participants, with NYSE’s opening and closing auctions growing more than 20% to handle over 32 billion dollars in trading activity per day.

We’ve also seen trades settle and clear more efficiently than the last time our systems were battle tested. Following the Covid-19 market sell-off, the exchange industry accelerated the time to settle trades from two days to one — increasing certainty and diminishing risk.

With dramatic swings in the Dow, S&P 500 and other major indices, U.S. exchanges are absorbing a record number of transactions and volume. At the New York Stock Exchange, we have struck a record volume of trades on our exchanges three times in the last seven days — peaking on April 9 with over 30 billion shares exchanged hands.

On April 7 and April 9, we processed more than 1 trillion incoming orders to buy or sell shares in a single day, with a median processing time of around 30 microseconds. Said differently, efficient certainty of execution has never been more crucial from a risk management perspective and the ecosystem has risen to the occasion.

Amid great uncertainty, our markets have provided investors with the freedom to digest global events, make investment decisions and execute trades with unrivaled speed and accuracy.

It is no accident that our system is working. It’s a system we have built and refined over more than two centuries. We make constant, immense investments in our technology. We push our teams to innovate. We prepare for every crisis imaginable.

In moments of uncertainty like these, we are constantly guided our north star of protecting the integrity of the U.S. market infrastructure. We rely on our reserve of knowledge and our experience to ensure the market’s strength and resiliency and the collective efforts from the financial industry maintain the U.S.’s position as the largest and most robust financial market in the world.

When it comes to risk management, and what it takes to run the largest and most robust markets in the world, Henry Ford got it right.

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Goldman Sachs (GS) earnings Q1 2025

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David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, testifies during a Senate Banking Committee hearing at the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 6, 2023.

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images

Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell Monday.  

Here’s what Wall Street expects:

  • Earnings: $12.35 per share, according to LSEG
  • Revenue: $14.81 billion, according to LSEG
  • Trading Revenue: Fixed Income of $4.56 billion and Equities of $3.65 billion, per StreetAccount
  • Investing Banking Revenue: $1.94 billion, per StreetAccount

Goldman Sachs may prove to be a beneficiary of the recent market environment.

On Friday, rivals JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley each topped expectations for first-quarter results on booming equities trading.

Equities trading revenue surged 48% and 45% at the banks, respectively, thanks to volatility in the opening months of President Donald Trump’s tenure amid his efforts to reshape global trade agreements.

Buoyant markets during most of the quarter, which ended March 31, should also support the bank’s wealth and asset management division, which CEO David Solomon has called the growth engine of the bank.

But markets have churned since Trump escalated trade tensions last week, sowing uncertainty across the world’s largest economy. Goldman shares have dropped 14% this year through Friday.

Analysts will be keen to hear what Solomon has to say about his conversations with corporate clients and institutional investors during the tumult.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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