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China optimism is surging. Why some investors are cautious

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A shareholder at a securities hall in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province in east China, on Sept. 24, 2024.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s latest policy signals have a bigger impact on sentiment than resolving deeper issues such as real estate, analysts said.

The Shanghai Composite rallied Thursday to close at a three-month high after state media reported Chinese President Xi Jinping led a Politburo meeting on the economy that morning.

The unexpected high-level gathering called for halting the property market decline, and strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. It provided few specifics, while affirming central bank rate cuts announced earlier in the week.

Markets should value how Beijing is recognizing the severity of the economic situation, and how its piecemeal approach so far hasn’t worked, Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a report Friday.

“The ‘shock and awe’ strategy could be meant to jumpstart the markets and boost confidence,” Lu said, but eventually it is still necessary to introduce well thought out policies to address many of the “deep-rooted problems.”

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Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed, dragged down by the real estate slump. Retail sales have risen by barely more than 2% in recent months, and industrial profits have barely grown for the first eight months of the year. Exports are one of the few bright spots.

Nomura’s Lu said policymakers in particular need to stabilize property since it is in its fourth year of contraction. He estimated the impact of additional stimulus wouldn’t exceed 3% of China’s annual GDP.

“Markets should place more emphasis on the specifics of the stimulus,” Lu said. “If not designed well, a stimulus program in a haste, even if seemingly large, could have a slow and limited impact on growth.”

The People’s Bank of China this week cut major interest rates, and announced plans to lower rates for existing mortgage holders. The Ministry of Finance has yet to release major policies, despite reports of such plans.

Questions about scale

For some investment institutions, that’s still not enough to move the needle on their China outlook.

“China’s policy moves to lower interest rates have not helped improve confidence among consumers who are fearful of borrowing in the first place,” Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in an email.

“We would be selling emerging market equities at this point,” he said, “as we have little confidence in Beijing’s willingness to extend the large stimulus that is needed.”

Christopher added that Thursday’s “announcement of coming fiscal stimulus is welcome, but it remains to be seen if China’s government is willing to take the steps necessary to reverse the psychological damage to household and private business sentiment.”

The Chinese government has cracked down on real estate developers, after-school tutoring businesses and the gaming industry in recent years. Policymakers have since eased their stance, but business and consumer confidence has yet to recover.

China’s latest interest rate cuts follow the U.S. Federal Reserve’s shift last week to easier monetary policy. U.S rate cuts theoretically give China’s central bank more room to reduce already-low domestic rates.

A survey in September of more than 1,200 companies in China by the U.S.-based China Beige Book found that corporate borrowing declined, despite historic lows in the costs to do so.

“One can certainly hope for a wealth effect from stocks and property, but stocks will be temporary and the wealth decline from property is overwhelming compared to any relief,” Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer at the China Beige Book, a U.S.-based research firm, said in a note Thursday.

He expects retail sales could pick up slightly in the next four to six months.

Qazi also expects the latest rally in Chinese stocks to continue into the last three months of the year. But cautioned that policies announced this week for driving more capital into the stock market “are not yet operational, and some may never be.”

Sentiment change

Those caveats haven’t discouraged investors from piling into beaten-down Chinese stocks. The CSI 300 stock index climbed Friday, on pace for its best week since 2008.

The sentiment shift has spread globally.

“I thought that what the Fed did last week would lead to China easing, and I didn’t know that they were going to bring out the big guns like they did,” U.S. billionaire hedge fund founder David Tepper told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. “And I think there’s a whole shift.”

Tepper said he bought more Chinese stocks this week.

An important takeaway from Thursday’s high-level government meeting was the support for capital markets, in contrast to a more negative perception in China on the financial industry in recent years, said Bruce Liu, CEO of Esoterica Capital, an asset manager.

“Hopefully this meeting is going to correct this misperception,” he said. “For China to keep growing in a healthy way, [they] really need a well-functioning capital market.”

“I don’t think they sent any different messages,” Liu said. “It’s just [that] they emphasize it with detailed action plans. That made a difference.”

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10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.6% ahead of jobless claims

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Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 17, 2024.

NYSE

Treasury yields rose Thursday morning as investors awaited new data on jobless claims.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 4 basis points 4.627%. The 2-year Treasury traded 1 basis point higher at 4.353%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Jobless claims for the week ended Dec.21 are expected to total 225,000, according to an estimate from Dow Jones. Claims for the prior week totaled 220,000.

The benchmark 10-year rate has climbed more than 40 basis points this month. The bulk of the advance came after the Federal Reserve pared down rate-cut projections, indicating only two more interest rate cuts in 2025, down from the four potential cuts penciled in during September.

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Top personal finance New Year’s resolutions for 2025

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The elevated inflation in recent years continued to wreak havoc on many Americans’ wallets in 2024, but the start of the new year provides a great opportunity to set new financial goals to get back on track.

“As we step into 2025, the country’s financial landscape calls for proactive resolutions to address rising concerns such as inflation and debt,” WalletHub analyst Chris Lupo told FOX Business. “Top financial resolutions for 2025 should be focused on smart budgeting, saving, and debt repayment.”

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Many Americans set new financial goals at the start of the New Year (iStock / iStock)

Here are some of the top financial New Year’s resolutions for 2025, according to WalletHub:

1. Make a realistic budget and stick to it

“With Americans carrying nearly $1.3 trillion in credit card debt, setting realistic budgets is a must,” Lupo said.

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2. Save more money

Lupo says saving is also key, as many households lack emergency funds. He suggests starting small with a goal of saving two months’ take-home pay and working your way up to a year’s worth.

“Don’t forget to maximize your earnings: 5%+ APYs on online savings accounts make switching banks worthwhile,” he noted, adding that high-yield Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are also worth considering.

3. Explore ways to refinance high interest rates

High-interest debt is costly, so Lupo says to consider tools like balance transfer cards or debt consolidation loans to cut costs. 

4. Repay 25% of your credit card debt

The average American is currently carrying more than $10,000 in credit card debt, and the sooner it can be tackled, the better. WalletHub says it is important to get serious about it, but suggests it is probably best to start small by setting a goal of chipping away at a quarter of it over the course of the year.

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5. Fight back against inflation

Look for ways to cut costs in everyday expenses, like shopping around for everything you buy, taking advantage of deals and coupons, turning the thermostat down, buying in bulk and cutting back until prices come down.

Grocery shopping

WalletHub suggests fighting back against high prices by shopping around and finding the best price on everyday items. (Paola Chapdelaine for The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

WalletHub has another 10 suggestions for 2025 financial resolutions, including paying bills right after getting your paycheck, making sure you have enough insurance for a catastrophe, protecting your identity, brushing up on your financial literacy, and even looking for a better job.

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“Focus on financial literacy and healthy money habits, like paying bills immediately after payday,” Lupo said. “These steps will help make 2025 a financially healthier year.”

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