Connect with us

Finance

China’s $41 billion plan to boost consumption is just a start

Published

on

QINGDAO, CHINA – JANUARY 08: Customers browse at an electronics shop amid an ongoing nationwide trade-in subsidy program on January 8, 2025 in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China.  

Zhang Ying | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s latest move to boost consumption isn’t meant to jolt all kinds of spending.

Policymakers last week doubled subsidies for a consumer trade-in program to 300 billion yuan ($41.47 billion) this year, matching market expectations — and again steering clear of cash handouts. The subsidies will go toward around 15% to 20% of the purchase price for select products, including mid-range smartphones and home appliances.

That’s an expansion from last year’s 150 billion yuan program, announced in the summer, for a narrower range of products.

The new round of subsidies are “pretty substantial” and will likely support retail sales, similar to how e-commerce companies saw a sales boost in certain products late last year, Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC on Monday.

While there’s skepticism that the impact of a one-time subsidy won’t last long, Cooke said more subsidy programs will likely follow. He added that China’s “aggressive” 5% GDP growth target and prioritization of consumption indicate that Beijing will do more to support growth — without relying as much on the old playbook of infrastructure spending.

Deer Stags' Rick Muskat on the impact of tariffs on China on his shoe business

Chinese Premier Li Qiang last week delivered an annual report on government work that named boosting consumption as the top task for the year ahead.

That’s the first time in a decade that Beijing has given consumption such high priority, said Laura Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. She added that the government work report cited “consumption” 27 times — the most mentions in a decade.

While Beijing has not followed the U.S. or other countries in handing out cash to consumers, Chinese policymakers have increasingly acknowledged the need to counter deflationary pressure at home.

China must focus more on domestic demand given the possibility of “new shocks” to overseas demand, Shen Danyang, head of the drafting group of the Government Work Report and director of the State Council Research Office, told reporters Wednesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

China’s retail sales grew by 3.5% last year, a sharp slowdown from 7.2% growth the prior year. In a sign of a persistent drop in demand, China’s consumer price inflation in February fell below zero for the first time in over a year, according to official data released Sunday.

If prices are too low, it becomes difficult to incentivize businesses to invest and increase consumers’ income, Chen Changsheng, member of the drafting group of the Government Work Report and deputy director of the State Council Research Office, said at the same press conference on Wednesday.

He noted that the work report called for four tasks to address the depressed prices: expanding fiscal support, working to lift consumption, using regulation to prevent price wars and making a greater effort to stabilize real estate prices.

Real estate accounts for the majority of household wealth in China. A crackdown on property market leverage in 2020 spurred a slump that only started to turn around late last year — after a high-level policy call in September to halt the real estate sector’s decline.

Stabilizing real estate can have a significant effect on boosting consumption, similar to wealth effects from a rise in the stock market, said Meng Lei, China equity strategy analyst at UBS Securities, noting expectations that the mainland China A share market has become more strategically important.

Stocks have rallied after China’s stimulus announcements in recent months.

The 300 billion yuan for the subsidies comes from an increase in ultra-long special government bonds for 2025. China said last week it is raising its deficit to 4% as it pursues “proactive fiscal policy.”

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 19: The Chinese flag flies outside the New York Stock Exchange during the initial price offering (IPO) for Alibaba Group on September 19, 2014 in New York City. The New York Times reported yesterday that Alibaba had raised $21.8 Billion in their initial public offering so far. 

Andrew Burton | Getty Images News 

Also helping sentiment are signs that Beijing appears to be turning more business friendly. Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting with entrepreneurs last month.

Once businesses are more confident, they can hire more and increase wages. The Chinese premier at the high-level meeting last week vowed more efforts to promote residents’ income growth and ease financial burdens for low-to-middle income groups.

The officials pledged more support for the care of the elderly, children and the broader healthcare system, steps seen critical to bolster the country’s safety net, allowing residents to feel comfortable spending more.

To a certain extent, these measures can help to reduce living costs and release potential consumption, said Pan Xiang, a macro foreign exchange analyst at Nanhua Futures.

Incremental pivot

Economists have long called for a structural re-calibration of the income distribution system and policies seen necessary to stimulating domestic consumption in a meaningful way.

The recent pledges signal that “the door [is] cracking open” yet still “very gradual movement of the leadership toward being comfortable with doing more direct support for consumption,” said Michael Hirson, a fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

“We’re not really there yet in terms of a very forceful push,” he added.

Before more support comes, an underdeveloped social safety net, a gloomy job market and low wages have spurred households to save rather than spend, Hirson said.

Household spending accounts for less than 40% of China’s GDP, significantly lower than the international average of roughly 60%, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

EVs, films, tourism

A look at an implementation plan, released Wednesday, from the National Development and Reform Commission reveals how China is thinking about boosting consumption.

The portion describing tasks for 2025 starts with an entire section on boosting consumption and investment. The report calls for efforts to “increase spending power” and encourage the development of products and scenarios that would encourage consumers to spend.

But it’s not a call to support all kinds of shopping.

Top of mind for policymakers is retail sales of “big-ticket items,” according to the report. China also said it would reduce restrictions on real estate transactions and automobile purchases.

Part of the plan includes developing the experience economy — immersive scenarios that combine film, video games, tourism and traditional Chinese culture — similar to the surge in tourists to historical sites associated with last year’s hit video game “Black Myth: Wukong.”

BEIJING, CHINA – JANUARY 15: People queue up in outside a Miniso store to buy co-branded goods featuring characters from the game ‘Black Myth: WuKong’ on January 15, 2025 in Beijing, China. Miniso and ‘Black Myth: WuKong’ launch co-branded products on January 15. 

Yi Haifei | China News Service | Getty Images

Chinese authorities also said they would improve “mechanisms for regular pay increases” along with the system for paid vacation days. Employees in China typically get fewer than 10 paid days off and several public holidays include days that must be made up by working for part of a weekend.

The report also discussed the continued plan for subsidizing consumer good trade-ins and upgrading equipment.

But two parts of the sub-section focused more on investment — developing talent, infrastructure and ecological projects — as well as building up “security capacity” in basic research for tech innovation and domestic food supplies.

China will soon release a more detailed plan for boosting consumption, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters Thursday.

Preliminary data indicates a sales boost from China’s initial 81 billion yuan in consumption subsidies announced in January, ahead of the this month’s parliamentary meeting.

Retail sales of new energy vehicles, for which buyers enjoy trade-in subsidies of up to 15,000 yuan, surged almost 80% to 686,000 units in February from a year earlier, data from China’s auto industry body showed on Monday.

Smartphone sales for the week of Jan. 20 to Jan. 26 surged by nearly 65% from the year-ago period to more than 9.5 million units, “and maintained a high level in the following weeks,” Counterpoint Research said in a late February report.

The analysis said subsidies are likely encouraging Chinese consumers to replace their smartphones earlier than planned, especially when artificial intelligence features are gaining prominence. The firm estimates the first-quarter subsidy to generate at least two to three points of additional growth this year in China’s smartphone sales.

Continue Reading

Finance

Trump pivot on tariffs shows Wall Street still has a seat at his table

Published

on

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.

As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.

Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.

“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.

So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.

Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.

Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.

Bond vigilantes

Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.

“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”

Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.

Ed Yardeni on tariff pause: This is a positive development for the economy

“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.

Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.

Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.

But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.

‘Chaos discount’

Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.

The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.

Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.  

“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.

Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.

Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.

Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.

“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.  

“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”

The Fed got very close to having to intervene due to market malfunction, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

Continue Reading

Finance

How the mother of all ‘short squeezes’ helped drive stocks to historic gains Wednesday

Published

on

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York. 

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.

Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.

In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.

But sometimes that can backfire.

As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.

Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.

And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.

“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

S&P 500

Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.

But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.

“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”

Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings. 

Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.

There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.

That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.

“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”

“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.

Continue Reading

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Capri, Janover, Harley-Davidson, CarMax, U.S. Steel and more

Published

on

These are the stocks posting the largest moves in midday trading.

Continue Reading

Trending