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China’s antimony export controls rattle the tungsten industry

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Pictured are are crystals of the antimony ore stibnite (antimony sulphide). 

Universalimagesgroup | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s latest export controls has rattled insiders of the critical minerals industry, and some are concerned that Beijing will leverage its global supply chain dominance in unprecedented ways.

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced Thursday that export controls on antimony would take effect Sept. 15. Antimony is used in bullets, nuclear weapons production and lead-acid batteries. It can also strengthen other metals.

“Three months ago, there’s no way [any] one would have thought they would have done this. It’s quite confrontational in that regard,” Lewis Black, CEO of Canada-based Almonty Industries, said in a phone interview. The company has said it’s spending at least $125 million to reopen a tungsten mine in South Korea later this year.

Tungsten is nearly as hard as a diamond, and used in weapons, semiconductors and industrial cutting machines. Both tungsten and antimony are on the U.S. critical minerals list, and less than 10 elements away from each other on the periodic table.

“My sector is now thinking this is getting much closer to home than graphite,” Black said, referring to China’s previous export controls. Last year, Beijing, the world’s largest graphite producer, said it would enforce export permits for the crucial battery material amid scrutiny from foreign countries worried about its dominance.

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“I can’t explain this move and I think that’s what rattled a lot of people in this sector, my customers, and they don’t have a plan B, which China is very aware of. There hasn’t been one for 30 years,” he said.

“There’s always been an equilibrium … they were never weaponized because they could create this snowball of escalation,” he said.

China accounted for 48% of global antimony mine production in 2023, while the U.S. did not mine any marketable antimony, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s latest annual report. The U.S. has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, and China dominates global tungsten supply, the report said.

“I think it’s the start of some export restrictions in a number of rare earths, minerals,” Tony Adock, executive chair of Tungsten Metals Group, said in a phone interview. He said he found it hard to believe that China would just restrict antimony.

“The way that the [Chinese Commerce Ministry] statement was written, we’ve extrapolated that to tungsten and other rare earths. It may not happen,” Adock said, noting that “tungsten is probably the highest economic importance.”

China’s Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tungsten’s military importance

The U.S. has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end semiconductors, following which Beijing announced export controls on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking.

While tungsten is also used to make semiconductors, the metal, like antimony, is used in defense production.

“China has a declining tungsten production, but tungsten is absolutely vital, far more than antimony, in military applications,” said Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.

He expects China will put export controls on tungsten by the end of the year, if not in the next month or two.

“During a situation where there’s a bit of a race to secure metals in case there is some sort of flare up in tensions, frankly we talk about South China Sea or Taiwan, you want to have as much tungsten as you can,” Ecclestone said. “But you also want people on the other side to have as least tungsten as you can engineer.”

The U.S. is already keen to reduce its reliance on China for tungsten.

Starting in 2026, the U.S. REEShore Act prohibits the use of Chinese tungsten in military equipment. That refers to the Restoring Essential Energy and Security Holdings Onshore for Rare Earths Act of 2022.

The House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party in June announced a new working group on the U.S. critical minerals policy.

Ecclestone said that last week, the niche market of antimony trading noticed that the U.S. price for buying the metal from Rotterdam was exponentially higher than the price for delivery out of Shanghai. That’s after antimony prices kept rising even after pandemic-related shipping disruptions ended, he said.

“There’s a suspicion that the Pentagon has been re-stuffing its reserves of certain metals, and most notably antimony because it needs antimony for munitions,” said Ecclestone, who founded the mining strategy firm in 2003.

The U.S. Department of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

China is acting more in retaliation “against what it views as an intrusion into its national interests,” Markus Herrmann Chen, co-founder and managing director of China Macro Group, said in an email.

He pointed out that China’s Third Plenum meeting of policymakers in July “put forward a completely new policy goal of better coordinating the entire minerals value chain, likely reflecting the further heightened supply importance of ‘strategic mineral resources’ for both business and geoeconomic interests.”

Emerging alternatives

As China seeks to ensure its national security, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are looking to tap a nascent opportunity.

“Energy Fuels has been the largest supplier of uranium oxide to the U.S. for several years supporting domestic nuclear energy production,” Mark Chalmers, president and CEO of Colorado-based Energy Fuels, said in a statement. He said the company is creating a U.S. rare earths product line.

“We recognized that our 40-year expertise working in naturally radioactive materials give us a competitive advantage to duplicate China’s success separating multiple [rare earth elements] from low-cost and plentiful monazite,” Chalmers said, referring to a mineral from which the desired metals can be extracted.

It remains unclear whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls.

“They don’t want to acknowledge that this could escalate,” Black said. “But I don’t think China wants this to escalate either. The last thing you want to create is another boogey man [at] the beginning of a U.S. election. Let’s see in a week whether this is really a policy or not.”

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Fintech unicorns watch Klarna IPO for signs of when window will reopen

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Hiroki Takeuchi, co-founder and CEO of GoCardless. 

Zed Jameson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

LISBON, Portugal — Financial technology unicorns aren’t in a rush to go public after buy now, pay later firm Klarna filed for a U.S. IPO — but they’re keeping a watchful eye on it for signs of when the market will open up again.

Last week, Klarna made a confidential filing to go public in the U.S., ending months of speculation over where the Swedish digital payments firm would list. Timing of the IPO is still unclear, and Klarna has yet to decide on pricing or the number of shares it’ll issue to the public.

Still, the development drew buzz from fintech circles with market watchers asking if the move marks the start of a resurgence in big fintech IPOs. For now, that doesn’t appear to be the case — however, founders say they’ll be watching the IPO market, eyeing pricing and eventually stock performance closely.

Hiroki Takeuchi, CEO of online payments startup GoCardless, said last week that it’s not yet time for his company to fire the starting gun on an IPO. He views listing as more of a milestone on a journey than an end goal.

“The markets have been challenging over the last few years,” Takeuchi, whose business GoCardless was last valued at over $2 billion, said in a CNBC-moderated panel at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal.

“We need to be focused on building a better business,” Takeuchi added, noting that “the rest will follow” if the startup gets that right. GoCardless specializes in recurring payments, transactions that come out of a consumer’s bank account in a routine fashion — such as a monthly donation to charity.

Lucy Liu, co-founder of cross-border payments firm Airwallex, agreed with Takeuchi and said it’s also not the right time for Airwallex to go public. In a separate interview, Liu directed CNBC to what her fellow Airwallex co-founder and CEO Jack Zhang has said previously — that the firm expects to be “IPO-ready” by 2026.

“Every company is different,” Liu said onstage, sat alongside Takeuchi on the same panel. Airwallex is more focused on becoming the best it can be at solving friction in global cross-border payments, she said.

An IPO is a goal in the company’s trajectory — but it’s not the final milestone, according to Liu. “We’re constantly in conversations with our investors shareholders,” she said, adding that will change “when the time is right.”

‘Stars aligning’ for fintech IPOs

One thing’s for sure, though — analysts are much more optimistic about the outlook for fintech IPOs now than they were before.

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“We outlined five handles to open the [IPO] window, and I think those stars are aligning in terms of the macro, interest rates, politics, the elections are out the way, volatility,” Navina Rajan, senior research analyst at private market data firm PitchBook, told CNBC.

“It’s definitely in a better place, but at the end of the day, we don’t know what’s going to happen, there’s a new president in the U.S.,” Rajan continued. “It will be interesting to see the timing of the IPO and also the valuation.”

Fintech companies have raised around 6.2 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in venture capital from the beginning of the year through Oct. 30, according to PitchBook data.

Jaidev Janardana, CEO and co-founder of British digital bank Zopa, told CNBC that an IPO is not an immediate priority for his firm.

“To be honest, it’s not the top of mind for me,” Janardana told CNBC. “I think we continue to be lucky to have supportive and long-term shareholders who support future growth as well.”

He implied private markets are currently still the most accommodative place to be able to build a technology business that’s focused on investing in growth.

However, Zopa’s CEO added that he’s seeing signs pointing toward a more favorable IPO market in the next couple of years, with the U.S. likely opening up in 2025.

That should mean that Europe becomes more open to IPOs happening the following year, according to Janardana. He didn’t disclose where Zopa is looking to go public.

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China’s Tencent sees opportunity in female Honor of Kings mobile gamers

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Tencent’s Honor of Kings mobile game drew a record 33,000 fans to watch a final competition in Beijing on Nov. 16, 2024.

CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

BEIJING — Chinese gaming giant Tencent is betting on a rise in female players worldwide for its mobile game Honor of Kings, which rolled out to the U.S. and other countries in June.

Already a hit in China, the game drew a record 33,000 fans to a Beijing stadium on Saturday to watch two teams compete for a $3 million grand prize.

Surprisingly, many in the crowd were young women, reflecting how interest in mobile games has broadened out from the stereotypical male player in the days of console and PC gaming.

Launched in China in November 2015, the game’s appeal lies in its easy learning curve and relatively short sessions of around 15 minutes. Anyone with a smartphone can play for free in real time, on the go.

“Honor of Kings became an important way for me to socialize,” said Tianyun Gao, according to CNBC’s translation of her spoken Mandarin. She started playing the game in 2017 as a sophomore in college and became a professional commentator for the game’s competitions a year later.

Gao, an English major from Shanghai, has moderated Honor of Kings’ competitions in two languages, including an international event held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, in August. She said her hope is to see esports become as mainstream as traditional sports, noting that one of her inspirations is a Chinese soccer commentator.

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Tencent ramped up its global expansion plans for Honor of Kings this year, with its subsidiary, Level Infinite, in February announcing a $15 million investment in developing the game’s tournament worldwide.

An international version of the game has been available since 2016 under different names such as Arena of Valor, but the latest global push for Honor of Kings began in 2022. The game didn’t reach the Middle East until earlier this year and only launched in the key markets of North America, Europe and Japan in June.

Less than a month later, the game topped 50 million downloads outside China, according to the company.

Overwhelmingly mobile-focused

Growth in gaming among women stems largely from their preference in playing on their smartphones, without having to invest in consoles and other technology.

“Nearly half of female players play only on mobile platforms so we have a huge addressable audience,” said Jackie Huang, head of the Honor of Kings global esports division within Tencent Games’ TiMi L1 Studio. “Women make up a significant part of our player base but we want to see this continue growing.”

He said that 45% of gamers globally are women, and that the gender composition of Honor of Kings’ users is “relatively balanced. “We strive to provide users, no matter how they identify, with [a] high quality gaming experience,” Huang said.

Gaming is Tencent’s biggest revenue driver, with international games accounting for around 28% of the its overall gaming business in the third quarter.

The company also owns Riot Games, a developer whose PC-based League of Legends has become one of the most popular names in global esports with its own annual competition. Honor of Kings, which claims 100 million players a day, uses a similar format with two teams of five players each.

Such multiplayer games are the second-most popular category for female gamers, behind puzzles, said Xiaofeng Zeng, China-based vice president at gaming research firm Niko Partners. His analysis found that 95% of women prefer mobile games.

If Honor of Kings can hold first place in China, and achieve that position overseas, then Tencent can generate half its revenue from international markets, Zeng said. He said the game’s top overseas markets by revenue are the U.S., India, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

And in the key market of Southeast Asia, Zeng said that due to a low base, female players are growing two to three times more quickly than male gamers. A newly branded Honor of Kings global championship was held last month in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, with Malaysian team Black Shrew Esports winning the $300,000 first prize.

Early stages

For now, no matter how popular Honor of Kings may be among women, the competitions remain dominated by men. The two teams competing in Beijing on Saturday consisted only of male players.

Huang pointed out that the global championship this year featured a female player from France’s Team Vitality, which is also managed and coached by women.

He attributed the Honor of King’s popularity among women to the game’s playable characters that are also female. Many of the figures, each with different powers, are based on Chinese historical or mythological figures.

In 2021, organizers of the Honor of Kings competition in China also launched a tournament for female players. This year’s womens finals are set to take place in December, with a prize of around $41,000 for the winning team.

“The pandemic was a large accelerator of females into the games space and we have continued to see increased engagement from female gamers,” said Chirag Ambwani, SVP, gaming and entertainment, at SensorTower, which focuses on mobile games.

Reasons include specialized and easy to access content, he said, adding that gaming participation grew overall.

As for Honor of Kings’ global expansion, Ambwani said SensorTower research showed “healthy growth,” with average revenue of more than $5 per user in the U.S. and Canada.

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