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China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness, S&P says

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Pictured here is a commercial residential property under construction on March 20, 2024, in Nanning, capital of the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in south China.

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BEIJING — China’s fiscal stimulus is losing its effectiveness and is more of a strategy to buy time for industrial and consumption policies, S&P Global Ratings senior analyst Yunbang Xu said in a report Thursday.

The analysis used growth in government spending to measure fiscal stimulus.

“In our view, fiscal stimulus is a buy-time strategy that could have some longer-term benefits, if projects are focused on reviving consumption or industrial upgrades that increase value-add,” Xu said.

China has set a target of around 5% GDP growth this year, a goal many analysts have said is ambitious given the level of announced stimulus. The head of the top economic planning agency said in March that China would “strengthen macroeconomic policies” and increase coordination among fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial and regional policies.

High debt levels limit how much fiscal stimulus a local government can undertake, regardless of whether a city is considered a high or low-income region, the S&P report said.

Public debt as a share of GDP can range from around 20% for the high-income city of Shenzhen, to 140% for the far smaller, low-income city of Bazhong in southwestern Sichuan province, the report said.

92% of investment funds have increased their exposure to China: HSBC

“Given fiscal constraints and diminishing effectiveness, we expect local governments will focus on reducing red tape and taking other measures to improve business environments and support long-term growth and living standards,” S&P’s Xu said.

“Investment is less effective amid [the] drastic property sector slowdown,” Xu added.

Fixed asset investment for the year so far picked up pace in March versus the first two months of the year, thanks to an acceleration of investment in manufacturing, according to official data released this week. Investment in infrastructure slowed its growth, while that into real estate dropped further.

The Chinese government earlier this year announced plans to bolster domestic demand with subsidies and other incentives for equipment upgrades and consumer product trade-ins. The measures are officially expected to create well over 5 trillion yuan ($704.23 billion) in annual spending on equipment.

Officials told reporters last week that on the fiscal front, the central government would provide “strong support” for such upgrades.

S&P found that local governments’ fiscal stimulus has generally been bigger and more effective in richer cities, based on data from 2020 to 2022.

“Higher-income cities have a lead because they are less vulnerable to declines in property markets, have stronger industrial bases, and their consumption is more resilient in downturns,” Xu said in the report. “Industry, consumption and investment will remain the key growth drivers going forward.”

“Higher-tech sectors will continue to drive China’s industrial upgrade and anchor long-term economic growth,” Xu said. “That said, overcapacity in some sectors could spark price pain in the near term.”

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: NVO, AVO, OXY

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CFPB sues JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo over Zelle fraud

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Rohit Chopra, director of the CFPB, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress,” in the Dirksen Building on Nov. 30, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Friday sued the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominant transactions on it, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursements.

The CFPB said customers of the three banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo — have lost more than $870 million since the launch of Zelle in 2017. Zelle, a peer-to-peer payments network run by bank-owned fintech firm Early Warning Services, allows for instant payments to other consumers and businesses and has quickly surged to become the biggest such service in the country.

“The nation’s largest banks felt threatened by competing payment apps, so they rushed to put out Zelle,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “By their failing to put in place proper safeguards, Zelle became a gold mine for fraudsters, while often leaving victims to fend for themselves.”

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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