A banner plays up China’s trade-in policy at a home goods expo in Qingdao, Shandong province, China, on June 1, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s plan to boost consumption by encouraging trade-ins has yet to show significant results, several businesses told CNBC.
China in July announced allocation of 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in ultra-long special government bonds to expand its existing trade-in and equipment upgrade policy, in its bid to boost consumption.
Half that amount is aimed at subsidizing trade-ins of cars, home appliances and other bigger-ticket consumer goods, while the rest is for supporting upgrades of large equipment such as elevators. Local governments can use the ultra-long government bonds to subsidize certain purchases by consumers and businesses.
While the targeted move to boost consumption surprised analysts, the measures still require China’s cautious consumer to spend some money up front and have a used product to trade in.
“We are not aware of companies that have seen this translate, since the promulgation of the measures, into concrete incentives on the ground in China,” Jens Eskelund, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters earlier this week.
“Our encouragement would be that now we focus on execution [for] visible, measurable results,” he said.
The chamber’s analysis found that the central government policy’s total budgeted amount is about 210 yuan ($29.50) per capita. Given that “only a portion of [it] will reach household consumers, it is unlikely that this scheme alone will significantly increase domestic consumption,” organization said in a report published Wednesday.
Analysts are not overly optimistic about the extent to which the trade-in program could support retail sales.
UBS Investment Bank Chief China Economist Tao Wang said in July that the new trade-in program could support the equivalent of about 0.3% of retail sales in 2023.
China’s retail sales for August are due Saturday morning. Retail sales in June rose by 2%, the slowest since the Covid-19 pandemic, while July sales growth saw a modest improvement at 2.7%.
New energy vehicle sales, however, surged by nearly 37% in July despite a drop in overall passenger car sales, according to industry data.
The trade-in policy more than doubled existing subsidies for new energy and traditional fuel-powered vehicle purchases to 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan per car, respectively.
Waiting for elevator modernization
In March and April, China had already started to roll out policy broadly supporting equipment upgrades and consumer product trade-ins. Around the measures announced in late July, officials noted 800,000 elevators in China had been used for more than 15 years, and 170,000 of those had been in service for more than 20 years.
Two major foreign elevator companies told CNBC in August they had yet to see specific new orders under the new program for equipment upgrades.
“We are still at the very early stage on this whole program right now,” said Sally Loh, president of China operations for U.S. elevator company Otis. Businesses know about the overall monetary amount, she said, but “as to how much is being allocated to elevators, this hasn’t really been clarified.”
“We do see that definitely there is a lot of interest by the local government to make sure this kind of funding from the central government is being effectively deployed to the residential buildings that most need this replacement,” she said, noting the announced funding “really helps to resolve some of the financing issues that we saw were a big concern for our customers.”
Otis’ new equipment sales fell by double digits in China during the second quarter, according to an earnings release. It did not break out revenue by region.
Finnish elevator Kone said its Greater China revenue fell by more than 15% in the first six months of 2024 year on year to 1.28 billion euros ($1.41 billion), dragged down by the property slump. That was still more than 20% of Kone’s total revenue in the first half.
“Definitely we’re excited about the opportunity. We’ve been excited about it for a long time,” said Ilkka Hara, CFO of Kone. “This is more of a catalyst that will enable many to make the choice.”
“I definitely see opportunity in the future,” he said. “How quickly it materializes, that’s hard to say.”
Hara pointed out that new elevators can save more energy versus older models, and said Kone plans to grow its elevator service business in addition to unit sales.
Secondhand market outlook
Central government policies can take time to get implemented locally. Several major cities and provinces have only in the last few weeks announced details on how the trade-in program would work for residents.
For ATRenew, which operates stores for processing secondhand goods, the ultra-long government bonds program to support trade-ins does not have a short-term impact, said Rex Chen, the company’s CFO.
But he told CNBC the policy supports the longer-term development of the secondhand goods market, and he hopes there will be more government support for building trade-in kiosks in neighborhood communities.
ATRenew focuses on pricing and resale of selected secondhand products — the company claims it became Apple’s global trade-in partner last year.
In specific categories and regions — such as mobile phones and laptops in parts of Guangdong province — trade-in volume did rise this summer, Chen said.
Trade-in orders coming from e-commerce platform JD.com have risen by more than 50% year on year since the new policy was released, according to ATRenew, which did not specify the time frame.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: T-Mobile — Shares pulled back 11% after the company’s wireless subscribers for the first quarter missed Wall Street estimates. T-Mobile reported 495,000 postpaid phone additions in the first-quarter, while analysts polled by StreetAccount were looking for 504,000. Alphabet — The Google parent company gained about 2% on the heels of better-than-expected first-quarter results . Alphabet reported $2.81 per share on revenue of $90.23 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG forecast $2.01 in earnings per share and $89.12 billion in revenue. Skechers — Shares fell 4.8% after the footwear maker posted weaker-than-expected revenue for the first quarter and withdrew its 2025 guidance due to ” macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade policies .” The company’s earnings for the quarter came in above analysts’ estimates, however. Gilead Sciences — The biopharmaceutical stock fell 2.5% after first-quarter revenue came in at $6.67 billion, missing the consensus forecast of $6.81 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. However, the company earned $1.81 per share, excluding items, in the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $1.79 a share. Saia — Shares of the shipping company fell 31% after first-quarter results missed estimates and showed a slowdown in March. Saia reported $1.86 in earnings per share on $787.6 million in revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting $2.76 in earnings per share on $812.8 million in revenue. BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform and said the issues were “company specific.” Intel — The chipmaker declined 7% after Intel’s current quarter missed investors’ expectations. Intel forecast revenue in the June quarter of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, while consensus forecasts called for $12.82 billion, per LSEG. Management anticipates earnings will break even. Intel also announced plans to reduce both its operational and capital expenses. Boston Beer — Shares of the Samuel Adams brewer were more than 1% higher after better-than-expected first-quarter results. Boston Beer notched earnings per share of $2.16 on revenue of $453.9 million, while analysts polled by FactSet were looking for 56 cents per share on revenue of $435.6 million. Boston Beer cautioned that tariffs could hurt full-year earnings. Tesla — The Elon Musk-helmed electric vehicle company surged 10%. Shares have advanced more than 17% this week as the broader market tries to recover from a steep sell-off for much of April. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Alex Harring and Sean Conlon contributed reporting. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell: Meta Platforms — The Facebook and Instagram parent jumped about 3%. Meta cut staff in its Reality Labs division, CNBC reported. Alphabet — The Google and YouTube owner climbed more than 4% after first-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations. Alphabet earned $2.81 per share on $90.23 billion in revenue for the quarter, while analysts surveyed by LSEG had estimated $2.01 per share and $89.12 billion in revenue. T-Mobile — Shares of the telecommunications company fell 5.5% after it reported fewer first-quarter wireless phone subscribers than the Street expected, seeing 495,000 postpaid phone additions versus analysts’ call for 504,000, according to StreetAccount. Earnings and revenue for the first quarter topped Street estimates. Intel — The chipmaker fell 7.2% after the outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors. Intel guided for revenue in the June quarter to come in at $11.8 billion at the midpoint, less than consensus calls for $12.82 billion, according to LSEG. Management anticipates earnings will break even. Intel also announced plans to reduce its operational and capital expenses. Gilead Sciences — The biopharmaceutical stock slid 3.9% after posting first-quarter revenue of $6.67 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $6.81 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. Gilead earned $1.81 per share, excluding items, in the quarter, while Wall Street penciled in $1.79. Skechers — The footwear maker slumped 6% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter revenue and withdrew its 2025 forward financial forecasts on account of ” macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from global trade policies .” Skechers’ bottom-line results came in above analysts’ forecasts. Charles Schwab — The financial services provider advanced 1.4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded shares to buy from neutral, calling Schwab a resilient growth stock amid an uncertain backdrop. Hasbro — The toy company rose about 1% one day after soaring 15%. Citigroup raised its investment opinion to buy from neutral, saying Hasbro’s stronger-than-expected Wizards of the Coast business outweighs any uncertainty stemming from tariff policy, according to analyst James Hardiman. Boston Beer — Shares of the Samuel Adams brewer rose nearly 3% after first-quarter results beat expectations. Boston Beer generated $2.16 in earnings per share on $453.9 million of revenue, while analysts surveyed by FactSet looked for 56 cents per share on $435.6 million in revenue. Boston Beer warned in its outlook that tariffs could hurt full-year earnings. — CNBC’s Alex Harring and Jesse Pound contributed reporting. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
“I think having that professionally managed portfolio is really beneficial to clients,” Coyne told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “We’re seeing just… greater volatility [and] uncertainty across both the equity and fixed income markets.“
According to Coyne, the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF suits investors who are looking for long-term growth.
“The objective of the fund is to outperform the S&P 500 with lower volatility and greater tax efficiency,” he said. “It’s also a more concentrated portfolio, typically holding around a hundred names.”
The T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF is down about 5% so far this year while the S&P 500 is off about 7% However, the ETF is up close to 8% over the past year — roughly identical to the S&P 500’s performance.
Coyne notes the T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF follows a similar strategy, but with a heavier weighting in top tech stocks.
“This is more of a large-cap growth product [T Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF],” he said. “There are components of characteristics of both passive and active here. This fund is actually managed by our North American directors of research. So again, strong fundamental research is going into the stock selection.”
Both the T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF and S&P 500 are down around 7% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the fund is up almost 9% over the past year. That’s less than one percent better than the S&P 500’s performance.
T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF vs. S&P 500
‘Some form of bear market’
Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn thinks investment demand for active managers will continue to be strong.
“This is the type of the environment where it [active management] can actually shine,” the firm’s senior ETF and technical strategist said. “We are in some form of bear market. This is where the active manager really can come into hand and offer their solution they are doing right.”