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China’s retail sales and industrial data miss expectations in August

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Pictured here is a shopping mall in Hangzhou, China, on Sept. 9, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in August all grew slower than expected, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Saturday.

Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. That was also slower than the 2.7% increase in July.

Industrial production rose by 4.5% in August from a year ago, lagging the 4.8% growth forecast by Reuters. That also marked a slowdown from a 5.1% rise in July.

Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the January to August period, slower than the forecast of 3.5% growth.

The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August.

Within fixed asset investment, that of infrastructure and manufacturing slowed their growth on a year-to-date basis as of August, versus July. Investment in real estate fell by 10.2% for the year through August, the same pace of decline as of July.

This weekend, Saturday is a working day in China in exchange for a holiday on Monday. The country is set to celebrate the Mid-Autumn Festival, also known as the Mooncake Festival, from Sunday to Tuesday. The next and final major public holiday in China this year falls in early October.

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Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed after a disappointing recovery from Covid-19. Policymakers have yet to announce large-scale stimulus, while acknowledging that domestic demand is insufficient.

Other data released in the last week have underscored persistent weakness in consumption.

Imports rose by just 0.5% in August from a year ago, customs data showed, missing expectations. Exports rose by 8.7%, beating expectations.

Beijing’s consumer price index for August also disappointed analysts’ expectations with an increase of 0.6% from a year ago.

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10-year Treasury yield back above 4.6% after mixed jobless claims data

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Treasury yields were slightly higher early Friday after a mixed set of data on weekly jobless claims.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was 3 basis points higher at 4.607%, slightly down from its peak earlier in the week but back above the 4.6% level it had not breached since May. The 2-year Treasury was fractionally higher at 4.334%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Yields move inversely to prices.

After the Christmas break, jobless claims data released Thursday for the week ending Dec. 21 came in 1,000 lower at 219,000, below the 225,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones.

However, continuing claims rose by 46,000 for the week ending Dec. 14 to the highest level since November 2021.

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 40 basis points in December as traders anticipate a more hawkish Federal Reserve in 2025. The central bank next meets at the end of January, when a rate hold is expected.

Monthly data on wholesale inventories is due Friday.

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