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China’s stock surge has echoes of the 2015 bubble. What’s different

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A customer watches stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, China, on September 27, 2024. 

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said.

Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit 2.59 trillion yuan ($368.78 billion), surpassing a high of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, according to Wind Information.

Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.

This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”

Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information.

China is a short to medium-term trade, says Hightower's Stephanie Link

The Shanghai Composite in June 2015 soared past 5,100 points, a level it has never regained since a market plunge later that summer. MSCI that year delayed adding the mainland Chinese stocks to its globally tracked emerging markets index. Also hitting sentiment was Beijing’s back-and-forth on a crackdown on trading with borrowed funds and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.

This year, the yuan is trading stronger against the greenback, while foreign institutional allocation to Chinese stocks has fallen to multi-year lows.

The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,336.5 on Monday, before mainland exchanges closed for a week-long holiday commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Trading is set to resume on Oct. 8.

In the runup to the 2015 market rally, Chinese state media had encouraged stock market investment, while loose rules allowed people to buy stocks with borrowed funds. Beijing has long sought to build up its domestic stock market, which at roughly 30 years old is far younger than that of the U.S.

Strong policy signals

The latest market gains follow announcements in the last week of economic support and programs to encourage institutions to put more money into stocks. The news helped stocks rebound from roughly their lowest levels of the year. The CSI 300 rallied by nearly 16% in its best week since 2008.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday led a high-level meeting that called for halting the real estate market’s decline as well as strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China last week also cut interest rates and the amount existing mortgage holders need to pay.

“The policy is much stronger and [more] concerted this time than 2015. That said, the economy faces greater headwind[s] right now compared to back then,” said Zhu Ning, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”

One week of massive stock gains do not mean the economy is on its way to a similar recovery.

The CSI 300 remains more than 30% below its February 2021 high, a level that had even surpassed the index’s 2015 high.

“The Japanese experience provides an important perspective, as the Nikkei 225 Index bounced four times by an average of 34 per cent on its way to a 66 per cent cumulative drop from December 1989 to September 1998,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, pointed out Tuesday in a blog post that was also published in the Financial Times opinion section.

Economic data for the last few months have pointed to slower growth in retail sales and manufacturing. That raised concerns that China’s gross domestic product would not reach the full-year target of around 5% without additional stimulus.

“I think what’s missing is the key to a lot of this, that has not come out, which would be a truly confidence-boosting measure, is how are they going to fix the local government finances,” Costello said, noting local coffers once relied on land sales for revenue to spend on public services.

While Chinese authorities have cut interest rates and eased some home buying restrictions, the Ministry of Finance has yet to announce additional debt issuance to support growth.

Animal spirits at play

Peter Alexander, founder and managing director of Z-Ben Advisors, expects the level of fiscal stimulus — when it’s likely announced in late October — to be less than what markets are hoping for.

It “may have investors a little bit over their skis, as people like to say,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

He added in a written response that his experiences in 2007 and 2015 indicate the Chinese stock market rally could last for another three to six months, or abruptly end.

“This is pure animal instincts and the Chinese have been pent up for a stock market rally,” Alexander said. He added that there are market risks from how unprepared the stock trading system was for the surge of buying.

Data on the number of new retail investors in China this year wasn’t publicly available. Reports indicate brokerages have been overwhelmed with new requests, echoing how individuals piled into the stock market nearly a decade earlier. The Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday said confirming transactions at the market open had been abnormally slow.

Looking for earnings growth

“China was cheap and was missing the catalyst. … The catalyst has occurred to unlock the value,” Costello said.

“Fundamentally we need to see corporate earnings go up,” he said. “If that doesn’t go up, this is all a short-term pop.”

Beijing’s efforts earlier this year to stem a market rout included changing the head of the securities regulator. Stocks climbed, only to see the rally peter out in May.

A factor that can send stocks past May levels is that earnings per share forecasts have stabilized versus downgrades earlier this year, James Wang, head of China strategy at UBS Investment Bank Research, said in a note Monday.

Lower U.S. interest rates, a stronger Chinese yuan, increased share buybacks and more coordinated policymaker response also support gains, he said. Wang’s latest price target of $70 on the MSCI China index is now just a few cents above where it closed Monday.

— CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim contributed to this report.

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UK to regulate buy now, pay later firms like Klarna and Affirm

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Klarna is synonymous with the “buy now, pay later” trend of making a purchase and deferring payment until the end of the month or paying over interest-free monthly installments.

Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The U.K. government on Monday laid out proposals to bring short-term loans under formal rules as it looks to clamp down on the “wild west” of the buy now, pay later sector.

Fintech firms like Klarna and Block’s Afterpay have flourished by offering interest-free financing on everything from fashion and gadgets to food deliveries — while at the same time stoking concerns around affordability. The space is highly competitive, with U.S. player Affirm launching in the U.K. just last year.

City Minister Emma Reynolds said in a statement Monday that the U.K.’s new rules were designed to tackle a sense of “wild west” in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) space, adding the measures “will protect shoppers from debt traps and give the sector the certainty it needs to invest, grow, and create jobs.”

Under the U.K. proposals, BNPL firms will be required to make upfront checks to ensure people can repay what they borrow and make it easier for customers to access refunds.

Consumers will also be able to take BNPL complaints to the Financial Ombudsman, a service created by the U.K. Parliament to settle disputes between consumers and financial services firms.

The rules are expected to come into force next year, according to the government.

Klarna said it has long supported calls to bring BNPL into the regulatory fold. “It’s good to see progress on regulation, and we look forward to working with the FCA on rules to protect consumers and encourage innovation,” a spokesperson for the company told CNBC via email.

“Regulation will give clarity and consistency to the sector, establishing a consistent operating environment and compliance standards for all providers,” spokesperson for Clearpay, the U.K. arm of Afterpay, said in an emailed statement.

“It will also create a more sustainable foundation for the future of BNPL as it continues to grow as an everyday payment option for consumers.”

While buy now, pay later firms have publicly expressed support for regulation, many were concerned about regulators applying outdated rules to their business models. The Consumer Credit Act, which regulates lending and borrowing in the U.K., has existed for over 50 years.

For its part, the government said it plans to adapt the Consumer Credit Act to allow for a “modern, pro-growth framework that reflects how people borrow today.”

WATCH: CNBC’s full interview with Affirm CEO Max Levchin

Watch CNBC's full interview with Affirm CEO Max Levchin

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China’s April retail sales growth of 5.1% misses expectations as consumption remains a worry

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Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China’s Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024. 

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s retail sales growth slowed in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday, signaling that consumption remains a worry for the world’s second-largest economy.

Retail sales rose 5.1% from a year earlier in April, missing analysts’ estimates of 5.5% growth, according to a Reuters poll. Sales had grown by 5.9% in the previous month.

Industrial output grew 6.1% year on year in April, stronger than analysts’ expectations for a 5.5% rise, while slowing down from the 7.7% jump in March.

Fixed-asset investment for the first four months this year, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 4.0%, slightly lower than analysts’ expectations for a 4.2% growth in a Reuters poll.

The drag from real estate worsened within fixed asset investment, falling 10.3% for the year as of April.

The urban survey-based unemployment rate in April eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in March.

The data came against the backdrop of trade tensions between China and the U.S.

U.S. President Donald Trump placed tariffs of 145% on imports from China that came into effect in April. Beijing retaliated with tariffs in kind, with 125% levies on American imports.

Trade-war fears have receded after a meeting of U.S. and Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland earlier this month led to a lower set of levies between the world’s two largest economies.

Beijing and Washington agreed to roll back most of the tariffs imposed on each other’s goods for 90 days, allowing some room for further negotiation to reach a more lasting deal.

That prompted a slew of global investment banks to raise their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year while paring back expectations for more proactive stimulus as Beijing strives to reach its growth target of around 5%.

This is breaking news. Please check back later for updates.

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Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China. 

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well. 

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”

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