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China’s stock surge has echoes of the 2015 bubble. What’s different

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A customer watches stock market at a stock exchange in Hangzhou, China, on September 27, 2024. 

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — The rocket higher in Chinese stocks so far looks different from the market bubble in 2015, analysts said.

Major mainland China stock indexes surged by more than 8% Monday, extending a winning streak on the back of stimulus hopes. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit 2.59 trillion yuan ($368.78 billion), surpassing a high of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, according to Wind Information.

Over six months from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese stock market doubled in value, while leverage climbed, Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, pointed out Monday.

This time around, the market hasn’t run up as much, while leverage is lower, he said. “We’re not in the danger zone yet.”

Stock market leverage by percentage and value were far higher in 2015 than data for Monday showed, according to Wind Information.

China is a short to medium-term trade, says Hightower's Stephanie Link

The Shanghai Composite in June 2015 soared past 5,100 points, a level it has never regained since a market plunge later that summer. MSCI that year delayed adding the mainland Chinese stocks to its globally tracked emerging markets index. Also hitting sentiment was Beijing’s back-and-forth on a crackdown on trading with borrowed funds and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.

This year, the yuan is trading stronger against the greenback, while foreign institutional allocation to Chinese stocks has fallen to multi-year lows.

The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,336.5 on Monday, before mainland exchanges closed for a week-long holiday commemorating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Trading is set to resume on Oct. 8.

In the runup to the 2015 market rally, Chinese state media had encouraged stock market investment, while loose rules allowed people to buy stocks with borrowed funds. Beijing has long sought to build up its domestic stock market, which at roughly 30 years old is far younger than that of the U.S.

Strong policy signals

The latest market gains follow announcements in the last week of economic support and programs to encourage institutions to put more money into stocks. The news helped stocks rebound from roughly their lowest levels of the year. The CSI 300 rallied by nearly 16% in its best week since 2008.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday led a high-level meeting that called for halting the real estate market’s decline as well as strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China last week also cut interest rates and the amount existing mortgage holders need to pay.

“The policy is much stronger and [more] concerted this time than 2015. That said, the economy faces greater headwind[s] right now compared to back then,” said Zhu Ning, author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.”

One week of massive stock gains do not mean the economy is on its way to a similar recovery.

The CSI 300 remains more than 30% below its February 2021 high, a level that had even surpassed the index’s 2015 high.

“The Japanese experience provides an important perspective, as the Nikkei 225 Index bounced four times by an average of 34 per cent on its way to a 66 per cent cumulative drop from December 1989 to September 1998,” Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, pointed out Tuesday in a blog post that was also published in the Financial Times opinion section.

Economic data for the last few months have pointed to slower growth in retail sales and manufacturing. That raised concerns that China’s gross domestic product would not reach the full-year target of around 5% without additional stimulus.

“I think what’s missing is the key to a lot of this, that has not come out, which would be a truly confidence-boosting measure, is how are they going to fix the local government finances,” Costello said, noting local coffers once relied on land sales for revenue to spend on public services.

While Chinese authorities have cut interest rates and eased some home buying restrictions, the Ministry of Finance has yet to announce additional debt issuance to support growth.

Animal spirits at play

Peter Alexander, founder and managing director of Z-Ben Advisors, expects the level of fiscal stimulus — when it’s likely announced in late October — to be less than what markets are hoping for.

It “may have investors a little bit over their skis, as people like to say,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

He added in a written response that his experiences in 2007 and 2015 indicate the Chinese stock market rally could last for another three to six months, or abruptly end.

“This is pure animal instincts and the Chinese have been pent up for a stock market rally,” Alexander said. He added that there are market risks from how unprepared the stock trading system was for the surge of buying.

Data on the number of new retail investors in China this year wasn’t publicly available. Reports indicate brokerages have been overwhelmed with new requests, echoing how individuals piled into the stock market nearly a decade earlier. The Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday said confirming transactions at the market open had been abnormally slow.

Looking for earnings growth

“China was cheap and was missing the catalyst. … The catalyst has occurred to unlock the value,” Costello said.

“Fundamentally we need to see corporate earnings go up,” he said. “If that doesn’t go up, this is all a short-term pop.”

Beijing’s efforts earlier this year to stem a market rout included changing the head of the securities regulator. Stocks climbed, only to see the rally peter out in May.

A factor that can send stocks past May levels is that earnings per share forecasts have stabilized versus downgrades earlier this year, James Wang, head of China strategy at UBS Investment Bank Research, said in a note Monday.

Lower U.S. interest rates, a stronger Chinese yuan, increased share buybacks and more coordinated policymaker response also support gains, he said. Wang’s latest price target of $70 on the MSCI China index is now just a few cents above where it closed Monday.

— CNBC’s Hui Jie Lim contributed to this report.

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These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week

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A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. 

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

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These U.S. consumer stocks face higher China risks

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Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett

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Street's biggest Apple bear says a production move to India is unrealistic

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.

Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.

He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.

“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”

Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.

“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.

Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.

“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”

Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.

“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”

Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.

“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”

According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.

“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”

Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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