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Congress’ proposed Medicaid cuts may negatively impact economy: report

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A “Save Medicaid” sign is affixed to the podium for the House Democrats’ press event to oppose the Republicans’ budget on the House steps of the Capitol on Tuesday, February 25, 2024. 

Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

House Republicans have called for about $880 billion in spending cuts over the next decade that may target Medicaid, a program that provides health care and other services to millions of Americans.

The budget resolution adopted by the chamber on Feb. 25 is aimed at implementing the cuts to help pay for renewing tax cuts expiring the end of this year. The House Energy and Commerce Committee is charged with finding the savings, and Medicaid is under its jurisdiction. Of note, the resolution doesn’t specifically single out Medicaid.

“It is very hard to imagine coming up with enough savings from what’s in their jurisdiction without a hefty cut to Medicaid, just given its size,” said Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

Republicans including House Speaker Mike Johnson have said they do not plan to cut Medicaid, in keeping with President Donald Trump’s promise not to touch the program.

Neither the White House nor the Energy and Commerce Committee were immediately available for comment.

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Cuts to Medicaid would impact more than 80 million people who rely on the program for health insurance every month, including many individuals who are middle class, as well as older adults who use it for long-term care benefits, Bivens said.

Because the program is the largest federal program for alleviating poverty, cutbacks would increase hardships for already struggling families, according to new research from the Economic Policy Institute.

Moreover, Medicaid cuts of that size would also make the U.S. more vulnerable to a recession, according to the research.

Cuts may have ‘noticeable effects’ on spending

Implementing Medicaid spending cuts to extend tax breaks from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would have “noticeable effects” on economywide spending, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Republicans and Democrats have opposing views on what the impact of extending those cuts may be. While Democrats say renewing the policy would benefit the wealthiest Americans, Republicans argue it could create a windfall for low- and middle-income Americans. Research from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and the Urban Institute has found high-income taxpayers would benefit most.

High-income households would likely save the additional money they see from any tax cuts, and therefore not result in meaningful spending, EPI predicts.

In contrast, individuals who are affected by the Medicaid cuts would reduce their medical spending, such as by skipping doctors’ visits, the EPI report found. For people with less generous Medicaid coverage, higher out-of-pocket costs would limit their ability to spend in other areas.

A dollar cut to Medicaid generally has a much bigger macro effect than a dollar cut to taxes for high-income people, Bivens said. Because Medicaid beneficiaries are so income constrained, every extra dollar of funding that goes to Medicaid frees up money they can spend elsewhere, he said. Medicaid cuts curb their ability to spend.

Miller: We are optimistic despite potential Medicaid cuts

An $880 billion cut to Medicaid would prompt a 0.5% drag on economic growth, according to the Economic Policy Institute. That could nudge the unemployment rate up by about 0.3 percentage points, and leave about 550,000 people involuntarily without jobs.

To counteract the slower economic growth, the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates from about 4.25% to around 2.5%, according to the Economic Policy Institute. But that would limit the central bank’s ability to react to any other recessionary shocks that could come up.

Research from the Commonwealth Fund has found when Medicaid is expanded, additional federal funding can help promote stronger state economies. For states that implement expansions, that may boost state output, state gross products and personal incomes in those states, which also benefits the country at large, according to the research.

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How students choose a college

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Is it best to go to college or dive straight into the working world?

Ethan Bianco, 17, waited right up until the May 1 deadline before deciding which college he would attend in the fall.

The senior at Kinder High School for the Performing and Visual Arts in Houston was accepted to several schools, and had whittled down his choices to Vanderbilt University and University of Texas at Austin. Ultimately, the cost was a significant factor in his final decision.

“UT is a much better award package,” he said. In-state tuition for the current academic year is $10,858 to $13,576 a year, which would be largely covered by Bianco’s financial aid offer.

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Vanderbilt, on the other hand, consistently ranks among the best private colleges for financial aid and promises to meet 100% of a family’s demonstrated need.

The school initially offered Bianco $35,000 in aid, he said. With that package, “it would be about $40,000 more for my family to attend Vanderbilt per year.”

However, he successfully appealed his award package and leveraged private scholarships to bring the price down further — and committed to Vanderbilt on National College Decision Day.

How cost plays into college choices

For most graduating high school seniors, the math works out differently. The rising cost of college has resulted in a higher percentage of students enrolling in public schools over private ones, according to Robert Franek, editor-in-chief of The Princeton Review.

“Currently, it is about 73% of the undergraduate population — but this year, with increasing uncertainties about financial aid and changing policies about student loans, it is very likely that number will go up,” Franek said.

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Soaring college costs and looming student debt balances have pushed this trend, and this year, there are added concerns about the economy and dwindling federal loan forgiveness options. As a result, this year’s crop of high school seniors is more likely to choose local and less-expensive public schools rather than private universities far from home, Franek said.

Price is now a bigger consideration among students and parents when choosing a college, other reports also show. Financial concerns govern decision-making for 8 in 10 families, according to one report by education lender Sallie Mae, outweighing even academics when choosing a school

“Choosing a school is a personal and individual decision,” said Chris Ebeling, head of student lending at Citizens Financial Group. Along with academics and extracurriculars, “equally important is the cost,” he said. “That needs to be weighed and considered carefully.”

Carlos Marin, 17, on National College Decision Day.

Courtesy of AT&T

On National College Decision Day, Carlos Marin, a senior at Milby High School, also in Houston, enrolled at the University of Houston-Downtown. Marin, 17, who could be the first person in his family to graduate from college, said he plans to live at home and commute to classes.

“The other schools I got into were farther away but the cost of room and board was really expensive,” Marin said.

College costs keep rising

College costs have risen significantly in recent decades, with tuition increasing 5.6% a year, on average, since 1983 — outpacing inflation and other household expenses, according to a recent report by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Deep cuts in state funding for higher education have also contributed to the soaring price tag and pushed more of the costs onto students. Families now shoulder 48% of college expenses, up from 38% a decade ago, J.P. Morgan Asset Management found, with scholarships, grants and loans helping to bridge the gap.

Nearly every year, students and their families have been borrowing more, which boosted total outstanding student debt to where it stands today, at more than $1.6 trillion.

A separate survey by The Princeton Review found that taking on too much debt is the No. 1 worry among all college-bound students.

Incoming Vanderbilt freshman Bianco qualified for a number of additional private scholarships and even received a free laptop from AT&T so that he could submit the Free Application for Federal Student Aid and fill out college applications. He said he is wary of taking out loans to make up for the difference.

“I believe that student loans can be beneficial but there’s also the assumption that you’ll be in debt for a very long time,” Bianco said. “It almost becomes a burden that is too much to bear.”

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Here are the HSA contribution limits for 2026

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The IRS on Thursday unveiled 2026 contribution limits for health savings accounts, or HSAs, which offer triple-tax benefits for medical expenses.

Starting in 2026, the new HSA contribution limit will be $4,400 for self-only health coverage, the IRS announced Thursday. That’s up from $4,300 in 2025, based on inflation adjustments.

Meanwhile, the new limit for savers with family coverage will jump to $8,750, up from $8,550 in 2025, according to the update.   

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To make HSA contributions in 2026, you must have an eligible high-deductible health insurance plan.

For 2026, the IRS defines a high deductible as at least $1,700 for self-only coverage or $3,400 for family plans. Plus, the plan’s cap on yearly out-of-pocket expenses — deductibles, co-payments and other amounts — can’t exceed $8,500 for individual plans or $17,000 for family coverage.

Investors have until the tax deadline to make HSA contributions for the previous year. That means the last chance for 2026 deposits is April 2027.

HSAs have triple-tax benefits

If you’re eligible to make HSA contributions, financial advisors recommend investing the balance for the long-term rather than spending the funds on current-year medical expenses, cash flow permitting.

The reason: “Your health savings account has three tax benefits,” said certified financial planner Dan Galli, owner of Daniel J. Galli & Associates in Norwell, Massachusetts.  

There’s typically an upfront deduction for contributions, your balance grows tax-free and you can withdraw the money any time tax-free for qualified medical expenses. 

Unlike flexible spending accounts, or FSAs, investors can roll HSA balances over from year to year. The account is also portable between jobs, meaning you can keep the money when leaving an employer.

That makes your HSA “very powerful” for future retirement savings, Galli said. 

Healthcare expenses in retirement can be significant. A single 65-year-old retiring in 2024 could expect to spend an average of $165,000 on medical expenses through their golden years, according to Fidelity data. This doesn’t include the cost of long-term care.

Most HSAs used for current expenses 

In 2024, two-thirds of companies offered investment options for HSA contributions, according to a survey released in November by the Plan Sponsor Council of America, which polled more than 500 employers in the summer of 2024. 

But only 18% of participants were investing their HSA balance, down slightly from the previous year, the survey found.

“Ultimately, most participants still are using that HSA for current health-care expenses,” Hattie Greenan, director of research and communications for the Plan Sponsor Council of America, previously told CNBC.

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There’s a higher 401(k) catch-up contribution for some in 2025

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Richvintage | E+ | Getty Images

If you’re an older investor and eager to save more for retirement, there’s a big 401(k) change for 2025 that could help boost your portfolio, experts say.

Americans expect they will need $1.26 million to retire comfortably, and more than half expect to outlive their savings, according to a Northwestern Mutual survey, which polled more than 4,600 adults in January.

But starting this year, some older workers can leverage a 401(k) “super funding” opportunity to help them catch up, Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida, previously told CNBC.

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Here’s what investors need to know about this new 401(k) feature for 2025.

Higher ‘catch-up contributions’

For 2025, you can defer up to $23,500 into your 401(k), plus an extra $7,500 if you’re age 50 and older, known as “catch-up contributions.”

Thanks to Secure 2.0, the 401(k) catch-up limit has jumped to $11,250 for workers age 60 to 63 in 2025. That brings the max deferral limit to $34,750 for these investors.   

Here’s the 2025 catch-up limit by age:

  • 50-59: $7,500
  • 60-63: $11,250
  • 64-plus: $7,500

However, 3% of retirement plans haven’t added the feature for 2025, according to Fidelity data. For those plans, catch-up contributions will automatically stop once deferrals reach $7,500, the company told CNBC.

Of course, many workers can’t afford to max out 401(k) employee deferrals or make catch-up contributions, experts say.

For plans offering catch-up contributions, only 15% of employees participated in 2023, according to the latest data from Vanguard’s How America Saves report.

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However, your eligibility for higher 401(k) catch-up contributions hinges what age you’ll be on Dec. 31, Galli explained.

For example, if you’re age 59 early in 2025 and turn 60 in December, you can make the catch-up, he said. Conversely, you can’t make the contribution if you’re 63 now and will be 64 by year-end.   

On top of 401(k) catch-up contributions, big savers could also consider after-tax deferrals, which is another lesser-known feature. But only 22% of employer plans offered the feature in 2023, according to the Vanguard report.

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