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Crunching the right numbers | Accounting Today

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Too many accounting firms are relying on outdated or inappropriate data to measure their success, and Sarah Dobek of Inovautus Consulting lays out a much more forward-looking set of data for them to work with.

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Transcripts are generated using a combination of speech recognition software and human transcribers, and may contain errors. Please check the corresponding audio for the authoritative record.

Dan Hood (00:04):

Welcome to here with Accounting. Today, I’m editor-in-chief Dan Hood. How do you know if your firm is growing? Well, hopefully you’re measuring it — and you’re measuring the right things.

Here to talk about the key performance indicators that you should be looking at for growth is Sarah Dobek, the president and founder of Inovautus Consulting, a well-known consultant to accounting firms. Sarah, thanks for joining us.

Sarah Dobek (00:23):

Thanks Dan for having me.

Dan Hood (00:25):

Alright, well let’s just jump right in. Are they looking at the right KPIs, particularly for growth? There are other KPIs one might want to look at, but let’s talk specifically about the ones for growth. Are they looking at the right ones?

Sarah Dobek (00:35):

I think it depends on the firm. I would say that by and large, this is one of those things that firms evolve in. I think data has become much more important to accounting firms and the evolution of business intelligence, analytics and power bi. All of those things are enhancing this conversation, but I still think there’s a lot of room. So I think a lot of firms are still relying on historical information. What business did we close and where did our leads come from? If we’re even tracking that along with what I would call to be kind of historical and standard profitability metrics, like billable hours and realization. And I’m not going to say that those are wrong numbers. There’s a place for some of those numbers, but I think that if we’re looking at evaluating growth, there is a much larger spectrum of KPIs that firms should really be looking at today.

Dan Hood (01:31):

And it sounds like one of those things there is that they should be looking at current numbers as supposedly historical things. We’re talking more about a dashboard than about a report that you get out at the end of the month.

Sarah Dobek (01:41):

Yeah, I mean, absolutely. I mean, to some level, analytics are always going to be historical in nature, but if you can get them more real time, they become more valuable. I think part of the challenge is that we wait usually until the end of the year to look at our numbers, or many firms have historically done that or quarter end. And it’s hard to make changes when we start talking about growth if we don’t know where we’re going to be. And so being able to start to look at information that is more real time becomes really important. A question that we get all the time, we’re sitting in the middle of the year as we record this podcast. And a question I get, are we going to hit our numbers? Are we going to hit our growth goals for the year? And being able to answer that question is really important. Firm leadership because it impacts investments and staffing and so many other things. And so we can’t do that if we say, well, we got to wait till the end of the year and see what our billable numbers are at.

Dan Hood (02:38):

Yes, by that point it’s a little late. Well, let’s talk about, you’ve mentioned some of the numbers that might not be what they should be paying attention to. We’re not getting rid of them, we’re not throwing them out entirely. Know some of them maybe. But what are the numbers that on a daily basis you should be looking at going forward? You would just say you want to know now whether you’re going to be in a good shape to hit on third the quarter or the year. What should be looking on a day-to-day basis?

Sarah Dobek (03:06):

So let’s start with sales metrics. I think those are really important. When we start answering the question, are we going to hit our goals for the year? One of the places we start firms is understanding what’s going on in their sales process. And so that’s going to look like progress against our goals. And there’s a lot of places that we generate new revenue inside of the firm. And historically firms have looked at what new business has been brought in, but they can’t answer, is it business that’s going to happen this year is a business that’s going to happen next year? Which is a highly relevant question in any accounting profession because sometimes we’re closing tax work that we won’t begin until next year or an audit or something along those lines. The other is what’s the average deal size of what we’re closing to? What are our win rates look like?

(03:54):

Because those allow us to be able to start to forecast whether or not we’re going to hit our goals. And if we aren’t tracking a lot of this information and this data, it becomes really hard to answer that question. Usually in year one, we can’t very accurately predict whether we’re going to hit our goals, but if we know what our conversion rates are, if we have an idea of what all of this looks like, we have a better idea of confidently saying, yes, we are on track to hit that, or no, we aren’t on track to hit, that becomes important. The other is what’s happening with our marketing. Marketing plays a really important role in growth, and if we have a marketing function in the firm, they should be paying attention to what’s happening. If marketing is expected to do lead generation and we’re doing anything around inbound strategy, what does that lead qualification look like? What do our conversion rates look like? What’s happening with that information? And I will honestly say, Dan, that there’s a lot of firms that are not prepared for this. They’d either don’t have the software and the tracking mechanisms to be able to answer those questions or they’re not being expected to. The firms are managing their bandwidth and saying, we really just want to focus on referrals. They’re still a lot of accounting firms that sit primarily in that bucket, but those marketing metrics are as important. That leads into your sales pipeline.

Dan Hood (05:16):

Right?

Sarah Dobek (05:18):

Go ahead.

Dan Hood (05:19):

No, there’s so many things going on. We need a much longer, we need a to three day long podcast to talk about a lot of these things. But at some point I want to talk about different roles, KPIs, that different roles should be just touched on it there. Marketing, the marketing people, salespeople or business owner. The people will be looking at the pipeline in a way that, I mean that maybe the leadership of the firm is, right? They’re relying on the sales team, marketing team, biz team to tell them, Hey, our pipeline’s fine, or Oh no, our pipeline’s there or everyone, we’ve got enough people at enough of the stages that we need to be to know that they’re going to fill into the next number that maybe the leaders are looking at, which is new business. But Joel, well actually let’s go there. I mean, let’s talk about different levels of the firm. How different are the KPIs that different people at the firm are going to be looking at and that different levels of the firm are going to be looking at? Yeah,

Sarah Dobek (06:12):

That’s a great question. So I think that as a firm leader, we’re looking holistically at how the firm is tracking against their goals. And there’s a couple of important things that I would think that we want to look at it as a leader. One is, are we on track and are we growing? And what does that look like month over month? There can be a little bit of ebb and flow in public accounting around when billings go out and things like that, but we should be tracking up. We shouldn’t be far behind more than 30 days on some of our goals unless we know there’s a significant reason or there’s a deal out there. The other thing that I think is really important is what type of work are we bringing in? A big focus for firms in the last couple of years has been what is our average deal size and is that going up?

(07:02):

We really have to protect all this work firms have been doing to size their client bases. And so that’s a core metric and KPI that we look at across the board. And if that number is going down, huge red flag, that number should be going up. It should be staying somewhat consistent around the average size of the deals and even paying attention the granularity of that, which is who are we bringing into the firm? Is it aligned with our industry focus or size of firm that we’re looking for? And if it doesn’t, then we need to figure something out really quickly there and put a stop to that for some of those metrics. The other thing that we need to be looking at is our client retention. Attrition is a big factor in growth, and we’ve not paid enough attention to that. And there’s attrition for a lot of reasons.

(07:50):

There’s a ton of consolidation going on in the market, and I think that looking at the current client base and what that typically looks like, but also looking at m and a transactions, I just had this conversation with a client the other day, which is we have a lot of clients that are going through deals and we’re going to have to replace that revenue next year. And that is fairly significant revenue for this client. They’re all really good clients, but they have very high priced average size client relationships. And so that’s become a factor in our forecasting. And so part of the exercise that we take them through in the fall is anticipating out who’s told you they’re in the middle of a transaction or looking at a valuation. And while the firm can help leading up to that, and there’s some great dollars that they’ll do, they’ll get a little bit of work on the backend, but that relationship’s going to change and that’s going to go from maybe a client to a B or a C client, just if you’re purely looking at revenue.

Dan Hood (08:48):

So get as much out, at least you can,

(08:50):

But then get ready to know that. I mean, you hear different numbers, but generally people say somewhere between 10 and 15% of the average firm’s clients will turn it over in any given year. And as you said, there’s a lot of m and a going on, not just in the profession but outside it. That’s got to have an impact. A lot of business owners and clients are retiring. That’s all changes. What kind of services are going to need from each? So all things you need to be paying attention to, much more important than your average number of billable hours. For instance. There’s a couple of questions here about different KPIs that I wanted to get into. And one of them is, do you find that for firms at different stages of their growth, Guilford say a very small firm versus a firm that’s going from five to 10 million to 10 to $20 million, really making that big leap to a new sort of governance level, do you find that the KPIs are different for all of them or is it it’s pretty much the same kind of things as everybody needs to be paying attention to?

Sarah Dobek (09:48):

Yeah, we’re first growing something. It’s all about how are we getting in front of people? My age old for 23 years, I’ve been saying, people don’t know you exist. They can’t buy your services. It’s like having a business out there without a business sign. And I always joke with my clients, they’re the best kept in secret when they come to us. And our goal is not to make them the best kept in secret anymore. This isn’t a club that you get into and then you find out about what we do. And so on the early stage growth of any practice area or new service line, our goal is brand awareness. So we need to figure out how do we reach that brand awareness and what does market penetration look like? This is a term that accounting firms are like, excuse me, what? But it’s really like, how much of the market are we taking, right? We’re never going to own a hundred percent of a market

(10:39):

And what does that look like? And when we’re opening up, it’s a wide open field, but what does that look like and how are we bringing in clients and how are we getting in front of them? And so all of our metrics are about brand awareness typically. And then what does our client acquisition costs look like? Because usually investing heavily into that brand awareness, once we get into a growth stage, it’s more about scalability. We start looking at client retention numbers. We’re looking at average size of engagement. What does our operational piece look like? We need to make sure that we’re profitable and sometimes in early stage growth, we’re not yet profitable in the way that we want to be. How are we expanding in services? What does adoption of those services look like? And that’s when we tend to get into more of the sales metrics and the sales pipeline data is when we’re in a growth stage, and then when we’re mature, we’re looking back at market saturation and what our expansion strategy is, we’re typically bringing in a lot more innovation. And there’s not always as many metrics around that, but it’s more about market leadership and what are we doing? And oftentimes our pricing model changes. We’re in demand when we’re in more of a mature stage for that, and we’re really dialed into our profit margins and our industry recognition looks a lot different, our PR and publicity. So at each one of these stages and maturity level on our marketing, we’ll be looking at different metrics. And some of them are more important than others in some of these stages,

Dan Hood (12:16):

But you can definitely tie them into what stage you in terms of how well you’re known and where your clients are coming from and et cetera, et cetera. Absolutely. Yes. Very cool. Excellent. Alright, we’re going to take a quick break, but when we come back, I want to talk about some other KPIs that people might be looking at and how firms might be thinking about gathering all this information and then presenting it and make sure that the right people get it at the right times. But for now, like I said, we’re take a quick break.

(12:44):

Alright, and we’re back with Sarah Doak about consulting, talking about key performance indicators, particularly around growth. So far most of our focus has been on KPIs for growth and how you should measure them and the different measurements you’re going to make at different stages of your growth as a firm and your maturity as a firm. But I want to just take a step aside and say, are there other KPIs that you think firms should be looking at beyond just the ones related to growth or they’re the ones that you think are relevant that maybe they’re not paying as much attention to us, they should.

Sarah Dobek (13:12):

Yeah, so I think not necessarily, it doesn’t always translate into a number, but the answers we want to be able to, or the things we want to be able to answer related to marketing. So for our marketing leaders is what’s working and what’s not working. And this is a question leaders ask all the time. As we look at marketing budgets and we invest in things, and oftentimes our practice leaders don’t get involved other than asking the question. And as marketers and leaders in our marketing teams, we have to be able to address that, right? And we need to know what’s moving the needle and what’s not moving the needle because we all have limited resources. And this is a really hard thing in accounting firms, a lot of sacred cows. And part of our job as marketers is sometimes to unearth those sacred cows and it’s icky, sticky work that isn’t fun.

(14:03):

And quite honestly, it challenges people’s identity because we think we’re doing something really well. And then we come to find out there’s not really a return on that investment that we’re making on the sales side, our sales leaders and people, we have to be able to project and forecast what we’re doing to answer that question for our leaders. Are we going to hit our goals? And how are people performing and where are their issues? The biggest thing that sales data does is brings a line of sight for us on where we need to be working on things. We sometimes have this human perception that we’re doing better than we are, and unfortunately data has this way of bringing to light when we’re not doing that and it’s a benefit and a curse. And then the other is just for our larger leaders, the typical things that you would be looking at, but also how are we innovating? Innovation should be part of everything we’re doing, and I don’t have a magical number for innovation, but if we aren’t evolving our operations, if we are not figuring out how to use technology to do something, if we aren’t improving our infrastructure, if we aren’t doing a better job of delegating, man, that’s what I would be all over as a leader. And there’s not a magic number for that other than I would say it probably shows up in profitability and bandwidth resources.

Dan Hood (15:25):

Yeah. Well, I mean, yeah, I suppose to go back to the sales, the things you’re tracking about sales and new clients and so on. One thing you might be tracking is how many new engagements are for new services, how many new engagements are for new things you’re doing? What percentage of our businesses from stuff we were in offering last year, I always come back to three MI think has a number, something like 20 or some ridiculous percentage, 20 to 25% of their products needed to be new every year, which led to make a lot of total unnecessary products, but they worked for them. I’m not going to quibble, but so it’s fascinating because there is that to say it’s a difficult thing to measure that innovation. It’s also there’s all kinds of other KPIs people talk about in terms of mentoring and staff development and career development for your staff and recruiting, retention. That all could be sort of difficult to measure, but at least need to be born in mind

Sarah Dobek (16:19):

As we go forward. Well, my definition of innovation, Dan, is just a little bit different than maybe the rest of the markets. A lot of times we think of innovation as something that is brand new. I think of innovation as small baby steps towards refinement around what we’re doing. And so innovation could be something as simple. I remember when we rolled out our AI note taker, like what a game changer that was for our team to be able to shave off 10 or 15 minutes in handling recaps that we do for our clients and the detail that was needed. I can’t tell you how many times our team goes back to the notes that we use in our a I note taker from client meetings and how powerful that’s been for the work that we do. And to me, it wasn’t a large budget increase. It didn’t require a huge change in the process of what we do, but man, what an impact. And so I considered that an innovation when we rolled that out last year, and it’s been great. And so when we think about innovation, I want us to think about those small little things that impact our growth that can really make a big difference in our practice. And that can happen in a lot of sales and marketing in what we’re doing to grow our firms.

Dan Hood (17:33):

And as you say, very hard to measure, right? How do you measure if every task takes you 30 seconds less? How are you measuring that, right? And still it’s half the time you to spend, so Excellent. Well, let’s talk a little bit about all this information. One of the things people talk about routinely within accounting firms is the difficulty of getting information from one system to another. Or as we’ve talked about, the difficulty of actually putting numbers to a thing that you want to measure. There may be many KPIs that you want that are difficult to find within your systems if they can exist at all. How do you look at or who should be gathering all this information and how should it be being shared with the appropriate decision makers going to lead aside who the appropriate decision makers are? That’s a totally different discussion, but who should be gathering this information and how should they be sharing it?

Sarah Dobek (18:18):

It’s probably going to be a mix of people, Dan, inside of the firm, you’re going to be pulling on data that’s going to be coming out of the practice management system. So whoever in the firm is responsible or can be responsible for pulling the reporting data that’s needed out of there is important. There’s usually a big cleanup exercise that we watch firms go through when we start pulling metrics like this because we find a lot of data that just hasn’t been cleaned in a while or maintained in the way that it should have been. So we’re missing industry data, so we can’t segment by industry or our billing codes might be a mess. And that needs to be aligned so that we’re really clear what billing codes line up to tax or audit or cas to get the granularity that we want around the decisionmaking and the numbers that we’re looking for.

(19:03):

And so usually when we’re doing this, there’s some level of reporting coming from there. If we have a CRM system, a lot of the sales data is going to come out of the CRM system and in fact, that can be merged with some of the practice management data in some instances. And so dashboard reporting can be created. And then on the marketing side, all of it’s going to come out of the marketing technology that’s being used. And again, sometimes that links in with the sales data. If you’re on something like a HubSpot that has marketing automation and A CRM for firms that use different systems like a Salesforce or whatever, they have different plugins and software that will go along with those. So it’s going to come from a lot of different places. I think the key is to understand with each one of these functions, what do we need to know?

(19:46):

What are we looking at? And start with where you’re at. I have firms that we still use Excel spreadsheets for because we have stuff in constant contact and we’ve got stuff in Google Analytics and we have to bring that together. And I have firms that we have dashboards for that sit on a marketing automation platform. And so there’s no right or wrong other than to say, start with where you’re at, begin pulling what you can, and then eventually over time you’ll evolve it to where you want it to be. And we’ve got lots of firms that are building all those disparate resources into dashboards in their firms too when they’re kind of broken up, like tons of firms that have Power BI dashboards or Tableau where you name the branded software for it that are putting these types of things together.

Dan Hood (20:29):

I want to ask you one last quick question about that. Do you find generally speaking that that cleanup, the sort of massive cleanup that goes into getting the data is that most often, I think you think do it once and then you’re generally, you’re good going forward, as long as you maintain it properly? Or is it the kind of thing you’re doing every month or every week to do? I never say many different

Sarah Dobek (20:47):

Varieties. I encourage firms to learn from the cleanup process and put processes in place to maintain the data because if you are doing the dashboard reporting, like I talked about, whether that’s living in a CRM system or living in a BI system or whatever it looks like, I encourage there to be a process around it. And when firms are using that data, I often find that the management of the quality of data becomes easier because there’s a line of sight on where there’s discrepancies and when we have a line of sight, we can quickly fix it. The challenge with data in accounting firms is that we never had a line of sight. We didn’t know when data changed between one system and another, so we couldn’t update it. There was no notifications. We’d have to do these massive exports and match data. Dan, I can’t even tell you what I did early in my career and how many hours I spent matching accounting from data to get to some of these reports all summer. The first job that I worked in all summer, I spent doing this and today clicks of a button and it’s there. It’s amazing to

Dan Hood (21:46):

Me. Well, I mean, that’s one nice thing, right? Is the systems for doing this, for measuring these KPIs, for gathering them, for disseminating them, for being able to analyze them, they’re all getting better. Pretty costly, almost on a regular basis every week here about a new recording system with new capabilities. AI is obviously going to be making huge changes in here for all of us, but hopefully at the very least, it’ll get easier. It’ll certainly be more useful and more powerful. Very cool. Sarah Beck of Nevada Consulting, thank you so much for joining us.

Sarah Dobek (22:16):

All right, thanks, Dan for having me.

Dan Hood (22:18):

Thank you all for listening. This episode of On Air was produced by a Accounting Today with audio production by Wen-Wyst Jeanmary. Rate or review us on your favorite podcast platform and see the rest of our content on Accountingtoday.com. Thanks again to our guest and thank you for listening.

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Senate unveils plan to fast-track tax cuts, debt limit hike

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Senate Republicans unveiled a budget blueprint designed to fast-track a renewal of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and an increase to the nation’s borrowing limit, ahead of a planned vote on the resolution later this week. 

The Senate plan will allow for a $4 trillion extension of Trump’s tax cuts and an additional $1.5 trillion in further levy reductions. The House plan called for $4.5 trillion in total cuts.

Republicans say they are assuming that the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts will cost zero dollars.

The draft is a sign that divisions within the Senate GOP over the size and scope of spending cuts to offset tax reductions are closer to being resolved. 

Lawmakers, however, have yet to face some of the most difficult decisions, including which spending to cut and which tax reductions to prioritize. That will be negotiated in the coming weeks after both chambers approve identical budget resolutions unlocking the process.

The Senate budget plan would also increase the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion, compared with the $4 trillion hike in the House plan. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections. 

“This budget resolution unlocks the process to permanently extend proven, pro-growth tax policy,” Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo, an Idaho Republican, said. 

The blueprint is the latest in a multi-step legislative process for Republicans to pass a renewal of Trump’s tax cuts through Congress. The bill will renew the president’s 2017 reductions set to expire at the end of this year, which include lower rates for households and deductions for privately held businesses. 

Republicans are also hoping to include additional tax measures to the bill, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap and some of Trump’s campaign pledges to eliminate taxes on certain categories of income, including tips and overtime pay.

The plan would allow for the debt ceiling hike to be vote on separately from the rest of the tax and spending package. That gives lawmakers flexibility to move more quickly on the debt ceiling piece if a federal default looms before lawmakers can agree on the tax package.

Political realities

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Wednesday, after meeting with Trump at the White House to discuss the tax blueprint, that he’s not sure yet if he has the votes to pass the measure.

Thune in a statement said the budget has been blessed by the top Senate ruleskeeper but Democrats said that it is still vulnerable to being challenged later.

The biggest differences in the Senate budget from the competing House plan are in the directives for spending cuts, a reflection of divisions among lawmakers over reductions to benefit programs, including Medicaid and food stamps. 

The Senate plan pares back a House measure that calls for at least $2 trillion in spending reductions over a decade, a massive reduction that would likely mean curbing popular entitlement programs.

The Senate GOP budget grants significantly more flexibility. It instructs key committees that oversee entitlement programs to come up with at least $4 billion in cuts. Republicans say they expect the final tax package to contain much larger curbs on spending.

The Senate budget would also allow $150 billion in new spending for the military and $175 billion for border and immigration enforcement.

If the minimum spending cuts are achieved along with the maximum tax cuts, the plan would add $5.8 trillion in new deficits over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The Senate is planning a vote on the plan in the coming days. Then it goes to the House for a vote as soon as next week. There, it could face opposition from spending hawks like South Carolina’s Ralph Norman, who are signaling they want more aggressive cuts. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson can likely afford just two or three defections on the budget vote given his slim majority and unified Democratic opposition.

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How asset location decides bond ladder taxes

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Financial advisors and clients worried about stock volatility and inflation can climb bond ladders to safety — but they won’t find any, if those steps lead to a place with higher taxes.

The choice of asset location for bond ladders in a client portfolio can prove so important that some wealthy customers holding them in a taxable brokerage account may wind up losing money in an inflationary period due to the payments to Uncle Sam, according to a new academic study. And those taxes, due to what the author described as the “dead loss” from the so-called original issue discount compared to the value, come with an extra sting if advisors and clients thought the bond ladder had prepared for the rise in inflation.

Bond ladders — whether they are based on Treasury inflation-protected securities like the strategy described in the study or another fixed-income security — provide small but steady returns tied to the regular cadence of maturities in the debt-based products. However, advisors and their clients need to consider where any interest payments, coupon income or principal accretion from the bond ladders could wind up as ordinary income, said Cal Spranger, a fixed income and wealth manager with Seattle-based Badgley + Phelps Wealth Managers.

“Thats going to be the No. 1 concern about, where is the optimal place to hold them,” Spranger said in an interview. “One of our primary objectives for a bond portfolio is to smooth out that volatility. … We’re trying to reduce risk with the bond portfolio, not increase risks.”

READ MORE: Why laddered bond portfolios cover all the bases

The ‘peculiarly bad location’ for a bond ladder

Risk-averse planners, then, could likely predict the conclusion of the working academic paper, which was posted in late February by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus in the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University: Tax-deferred retirement accounts such as a 401(k) or a traditional individual retirement account are usually the best location for a Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder. The appreciation attributes available through an after-tax Roth IRA work better for equities than a bond ladder designed for decumulation, and the potential payments to Uncle Sam in brokerage accounts make them an even worse asset location.

“Few planners will be surprised to learn that locating a TIPS ladder in a taxable account leads to phantom income and excess payment of tax, with a consequent reduction in after-tax real spending power,” McQuarrie writes. “Some may be surprised to learn just how baleful that mistake in account location can be, up to and including negative payouts in the early years for high tax brackets and very high rates of inflation. In the worst cases, more is due in tax than the ladder payout provides. And many will be surprised to learn how rapidly the penalty for choosing the wrong asset location increases at higher rates of inflation — precisely the motivation for setting up a TIPS ladder in the first place. Perhaps the most surprising result of all was the discovery that excess tax payments in the early years are never made up. [Original issue discount] causes a dead loss.”

The Roth account may look like a healthy alternative, since the clients wouldn’t owe any further taxes on distributions from them in retirement. But the bond ladder would defeat the whole purpose of that vehicle, McQuarrie writes.

“Planners should recognize that a Roth account is a peculiarly bad location for a bond ladder, whether real or nominal,” he writes. “Ladders are decumulation tools designed to provide a stream of distributions, which the Roth account does not otherwise require. Locating a bond ladder in the Roth thus forfeits what some consider to be one of the most valuable features of the Roth account. If the bond ladder is the only asset in the Roth, then the Roth itself will have been liquidated as the ladder reaches its end.”

READ MORE: How to hedge risk with annuity ladders

RMD advantages

That means that the Treasury inflation-protected securities ladder will add the most value to portfolios in a tax-deferred account (TDA), which McQuarrie acknowledges is not a shocking recommendation to anyone familiar with them. On the other hand, some planners with clients who need to begin required minimum distributions from their traditional IRA may reap further benefits than expected from that location.

“More interesting is the demonstration that the after-tax real income received from a TIPS ladder located in a TDA does not vary with the rate of inflation, in contrast to what happens in a taxable account,” McQuarrie writes. “Also of note was the ability of most TIPS ladders to handle the RMDs due, and, at higher rates of inflation, to shelter other assets from the need to take RMDs.”

The present time of high yields from Treasury inflation-protected securities could represent an ample opportunity to tap into that scenario.

“If TIPS yields are attractive when the ladder is set up, distributions from the ladder will typically satisfy RMDs on the ladder balance throughout the 30 years,” McQuarrie writes. “The higher the inflation experienced, the greater the surplus coverage, allowing other assets in the account to be sheltered in part from RMDs by means of the TIPS ladder payout. However, if TIPS yields are borderline unattractive at ladder set up, and if the ladder proved unnecessary because inflation fell to historically low levels, then there may be a shortfall in RMD coverage in the middle years, requiring either that TIPS bonds be sold prematurely, or that other assets in the TDA be tapped to cover the RMD.”

READ MORE: A primer on the IRA ‘bridge’ to bigger Social Security benefits

The key takeaways on bond ladders

Other caveats to the strategies revolve around any possible state taxes on withdrawals or any number of client circumstances ruling out a universal recommendation. The main message of McQuarrie’s study serves as a warning against putting the ladder in a taxable brokerage account.

“Unsurprisingly, the higher the client’s tax rate, the worse the outcomes from locating a TIPS ladder in taxable when inflation rages,” he writes. “High-bracket taxpayers who accurately foresee a surge in future inflation, and take steps to defend against it, but who make the mistake of locating their TIPS ladder in taxable, can end up paying more in tax to the government than is received from the TIPS ladder during the first year or two.”

For municipal or other types of tax-exempt bonds, though, a taxable account is “the optimal place,” Spranger said. Convertible Treasury or corporate bonds show more similarity with the Treasury inflation-protected securities in that their ideal location is in a tax-deferred account, he noted.

Regardless, bonds act as a crucial core to a client’s portfolio, tamping down on the risk of volatility and sensitivity to interest rates. And the right ladder strategies yield more reliable future rates of returns for clients than a bond ETF or mutual fund, Spranger said.

“We’re strong proponents of using individual bonds, No. 1 so that we can create bond ladders, but, most importantly, for the certainty that individual bonds provide,” he said.

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Accounting

Why IRS cuts may spare a unit that facilitates mortgages

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Loan applicants and mortgage companies often rely on an Internal Revenue Service that’s dramatically downsizing to help facilitate the lending process, but they may be in luck.

That’s because the division responsible for the main form used to allow consumers to authorize the release of income-tax information to lenders is tied to essential IRS operations.

The Income Verification Express Service could be insulated from what NMN affiliate Accounting Today has described of a series of fluctuating IRS cuts because it’s part of the submission processing unit within wage and investment, a division central to the tax bureau’s purpose.

“It’s unlikely that IVES will be impacted due to association within submission processing,” said Curtis Knuth, president and CEO of NCS, a consumer reporting agency. “Processing tax returns and collecting revenue is the core function and purpose of the IRS.”

Knuth is a member of the IVES participant working group, which is comprised of representatives from companies that facilitate processing of 4506-C forms used to request tax transcripts for mortgages. Those involved represent a range of company sizes and business models.

The IRS has planned to slash thousands of jobs and make billions of dollars of cuts that are still in process, some of which have been successfully challenged in court.

While the current cuts might not be a concern for processing the main form of tax transcript requests this time around, there have been past issues with it in other situations like 2019’s lengthy government shutdown.

President Trump recently signed a continuing funding resolution to avert a shutdown. But it will run out later this year, so the issue could re-emerge if there’s an impasse in Congress at that time. Republicans largely dominate Congress but their lead is thinner in the Senate.

The mortgage industry will likely have an additional option it didn’t have in 2019 if another extended deadlock on the budget emerges and impedes processing of the central tax transcript form.

“It absolutely affected closings, because you couldn’t get the transcripts. You couldn’t get anybody on the phone,” said Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president of National One Mortgage Corp.’s Southeast division.

There is an automated, free way for consumers to release their transcripts that may still operate when there are issues with the 4506-C process, which has a $4 surcharge. However, the alternative to the 4506-C form is less straightforward and objective as it’s done outside of the mortgage process, requiring a separate logon and actions.

Some of the most recent IRS cuts have targeted technology jobs and could have an impact on systems, so it’s also worth noting that another option lenders have sometimes elected to use is to allow loans temporarily move forward when transcript access is interrupted and verified later. 

There is a risk to waiting for verification or not getting it directly from the IRS, however, as government-related agencies hold mortgage lenders responsible for the accuracy of borrower income information. That risk could increase if loan performance issues become more prevalent.

Currently, tax transcripts primarily come into play for government-related loans made to contract workers, said Crescenzo.

“That’s the only receipt that you have for a self-employed client’s income to know it’s valid,” he said.

The home affordability crunch and rise of gig work like Uber driving has increased interest in these types of mortgages, he said. 

Contract workers can alternatively seek financing from the private non-qualified mortgage market where bank statements could be used to verify self-employment income, but Crescenzo said that has disadvantages related to government-related loans.

“Non QM requires higher downpayments and interest rates than traditional financing,” he said.

In the next couple years, regional demand for loans based on self-employment income could rise given the federal job cuts planned broadly at public agencies, depending on the extent to which court challenges to them go through.

Those potential borrowers will find it difficult to get new mortgages until they can establish more of a track record with their new sources of income, in most cases two years from a tax filing perspective. 

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