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Democrats struggle to limit the loss of black voters in Georgia

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The drift of black voters away from the Democratic Party has become a touchstone of the 2024 election. In Georgia, the anxieties of the Kamala Harris campaign are hard to miss. On one night in Atlanta it deployed music moguls to run a “Brothas and Brews” event. Then it released an “opportunity agenda for black men”, promising to give more business loans, protect cryptocurrency and legalise marijuana. To press her closing arguments Ms Harris is sitting down with Charlamagne tha God and other influencers.

Four years ago, Mr. Biden won the state by a razor-thin margin of 11,779 votes. If turnout remains constant this year, a gap like that among black voters would amount to a deficit of 139,000 votes for Ms Harris.

Donald Trump’s allies are pouring it on as early voting opens in Georgia: “For the last three and a half years the Democrats haven’t given a damn about black men unless they’re dead or gay,” Michaelah Montgomery, a black Republican activist, roared onstage at a rally featuring Mr Trump on October 15th. In the packed audience, black men in suits stood and clapped as white women looked on, beaming. Liberals can seem befuddled about why some black voters are turning to Mr Trump but the defectors are often moved by the same issues as other supporters: jobs and reinvesting at home. “You can’t fund other countries if your own backyard is on fire,” says Kiersen Harris, a 22-year-old security guard who plans to vote for Mr Trump.

Mr Biden’s narrow win in Georgia, the first by a Democrat since 1992, was one of the most remarkable results of the 2020 election. It announced that Democratic presidential candidates could again compete in old Dixie after years of mostly fruitless effort. An influential prophet of the turnaround was Stacey Abrams, a Democratic politician who had argued for years that the state was ripe for flipping. Anything less than full investment in Georgia “would amount to strategic malpractice”, she told national Democrats in 2019.

Stacey Abrams, photographed in her back yard in Decatur, Georgia.

Image: Rita Harper

Why was she right? In the two decades to 2020 Georgia’s voting population grew by 1.9m. Nearly half of that growth came from black voters—the largest percentage-point increase in any state’s black electorate. New voters came mostly from New York and Florida, but also the Caribbean and Africa. They bolstered the state’s well-established black elites. Black voters born outside Georgia are now more than twice as likely as black natives to have a college degree. This was a double advantage for Democrats, who increasingly rely on college-educated and minority voters.

Georgia, black people as % of population

By census tract, 2022

Share of total votes cast

by Black voters, 2020, %

Sources: Catalist; OpenStreetMap; Federal Election Commission;
Redistricting Data Hub; The Economist

Georgia, black people as % of population

By census tract, 2022

Share of total votes cast by Black voters, 2020, %

Sources: Catalist; OpenStreetMap; Federal Election Commission;
Redistricting Data Hub; The Economist

Georgia, black people as % of population

Share of total votes cast by black voters,

2020, %

Sources: Catalist; OpenStreetMap; Federal Election Commission;

Redistricting Data Hub; The Economist

Now Mr Biden’s achievement in 2020 lies on a knife’s edge. If Ms Harris does not match Mr Biden’s share of the black vote, she would need to make up votes among white voters, who skew Republican. But whereas Mr Biden won 30% of the white vote in Georgia, polls show Ms Harris up by just one point, at 31%. If that finding proves accurate she can afford to drop just two percentage points with black voters, not the ten shown in current polls.

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Democrats’ struggles with black voters are not new, or confined to Georgia. The party’s presidential candidates won an average of 87.5% of the black vote between 1984 and 2004. Barack Obama changed the equation and won 96% in 2008. “It was a lightning-in-the-bottle moment,” says Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic strategist. Since 2012, however, Democrats have fallen back towards their pre-Obama norm. Black support slipped to 90% by 2020, but a surge in turnout that year—200,000 more black voters in Georgia, in particular—masked the decline. More black votes even at a slightly lower margin delivered Democrats a significant net gain. The alarm for Ms Harris is that polls show her attracting the lowest share of any Democratic nominee in decades. The national Economist/YouGov polls have her at 83.5%, while other polls find her share as low as 78%.

Jobs on their mind

Lower turnout this year could exacerbate Ms Harris’s problem. In 2020 Georgia had two Senate races that attracted national attention and ultimately determined control of the chamber. This time there are no statewide contests to motivate voters disaffected by the presidential candidates. And the black migration that helped Democrats win in 2020 seems to have slowed. Data from L2, an analytics firm, show that of the 187,000 voters who moved to Georgia since 2020 only 24% are black, half the share of those who came before.

Source: YouGov/The Economist

Perhaps the most striking feature of black voters’ evolving outlook is that young black men see less salience in the civil-rights movement than did their parents’ generation. Just 65% of black men under 30 say civil rights are an issue that is very important to them, compared with 84% of those over 65. Auburn Avenue, a black business district that was once the epicentre of Atlanta’s civil-rights movement, is now hollowed out and quiet. “Thinking about racial politics is a luxury,” says a black millennial who works in Georgia politics. “These days young people are more concerned about jobs.”

Ms Abrams reckons this is a messaging problem—fears about the futures of black men and their access to jobs “are inherently civil-rights issues”, she says. She argues that the idea that black voters are moving away from Democrats is “an extrapolation that is not warranted yet”, especially as polling suggests that black women are heavily motivated by Ms Harris.

Ms Abrams and her peers are confident that the Harris campaign can defy the polls. “We saw some similar softness two years ago and we ended up closing that gap,” says Lauren Groh-Wargo, a longtime Georgia operative. Political scientists have shown that tight-knit black communities have strictly enforced political norms, to include voting for Democratic candidates, even as conservatism has become more popular. Trump-curious black voters may yet be persuaded to back Ms Harris by pastors and women in their extended families. If they express support for Mr Trump “out loud in black spaces, research suggests it’s not going unchallenged,” says Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University. Most undecideds, she thinks, will break in the end for Ms Harris.

Top: Thomas Anderson, who is 36 years old, is not voting this year in part because “our votes don’t matter”. He considers job creation the most important issue.
Bottom: William Owen, a 54-year-old salesman for Frito-Lay, is leaning towards voting for Kamala Harris. He grew up in council housing and sees affordable housing as the election’s most important issue.

Image: Rita Harper

At Fade Away Cutz in South Atlanta Richard Wright, once a candidate for Atlanta mayor and named for the black author, is getting a crisp shave. He and his barber, both middle-aged, are sceptical of the left but say they are voting for Ms Harris. They worry about the younger men who intend to back Mr Trump—and about the fallout from the campaigns’ obsessions with voters who look like them. “If Trump wins, me and you are going to have to move,” Mr Wright tells his barber between treatments, “because black men are going to get blamed.”

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Getting the drift”

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Americans are getting flashbacks to 2008 as tariffs stoke recession fears

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Homemade barbecue pork chops. Katy Perry performs onstage during the Katy Perry The Lifetimes Tour 2025. A woman checks her receipt while exiting a store.

iStock| Theo Wargo | Hispanolistic | Getty Images

A few weeks ago, as Kiki Rough felt increasingly concerned about the state of the economy, she began thinking about previous periods of financial hardship.

Rough thought about the skills she learned about making groceries stretch during the tough times that accompanied past economic downturns. Facing similar feelings of uncertainty about the country’s financial future, she began making video guides to recipes from cookbooks published during previous recessions, depressions and wartimes.

The 28-year-old told followers that she is not a professional chef, but instead earned her stripes by learning to cook while on food stamps. From Rough’s yellow-and-black kitchen in the Chicago suburbs, she teaches viewers how to make cheap meals and at-home replacements for items like breakfast strudel or donuts. She often reminds people to replace ingredients with alternatives they already have in the pantry.

“I keep seeing this joke over and over in the comments: The old poors teaching the new poors,” Rough told CNBC. “We just need to share knowledge right now because everyone is scared, and learning is going to give people the security to navigate these situations.”

The self-employed consultant’s videos quickly found an audience on TikTok and Instagram. Between both platforms, she’s gained 350,000 followers and garnered about 21 million views on videos over the last month, by her count.

President Donald Trump’s announcement of broad and steep tariffs earlier in April has ratcheted up fears of the U.S. economy tipping into a recession in recent weeks. As Americans like Rough grow increasingly worried about the road ahead, they are harking back to the tips and tricks they employed to scrape by during dark financial chapters like the global financial crisis that exploded in 2008.

Google is predicting a spike in search volumes this month for terms related to the recession that came to define the late 2000s. Searches for the “Global Financial Crisis” are expected to hit levels not seen since 2010, while inquiries for the “Great Recession” are slated to be at their highest rate since the onset of the Covid pandemic.

Porkchops, house parties and jungle juice

On TikTok, a gaggle of Millennials and Gen Xers has stepped into the roles of older siblings, offering flashbacks and advice to younger people on how to pinch pennies. Some Gen Zers have put out calls to elders for insights on what a recession may feel like at this stage of life, having been too young to feel the full effects of the financial crisis.

“This is, potentially, at least on a large scale, the first time that millennials have been able to be the ‘experts’ on something,” said Scott Sills, a 33-year-old marketer in Louisiana. “We’re the experts on getting the rug pulled out from under us.”

Those doling out the advice are taking a trip down memory lane the to tail-end of the aughts. Cheap getaways to Florida were the norm instead of lush trips abroad. They had folders for receipts in case big-ticket purchases went on sale later. Business casual outfits were commonplace at social events because they couldn’t afford multiple styles of clothing.

Porkchops were a staple dinner given their relative affordability, leading one creator to declare that they “taste like” the Great Recession. They drank “jungle juice” at house parties, a concoction of various cheap liquors and mixers, instead of cocktails at bars.

“There’s things that I didn’t realize were ‘recession indicators’ the first time around that I thought were just the trends,” said M.A. Lakewood, a writer and professional fundraiser in upstate New York. “Now, you can see it coming from 10 miles away.”

 Customers shop for produce at an H-E-B grocery store on Feb. 12, 2025 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

To be sure, some of the discourse has centered around how inflationary pressures have made a handful of these hacks defunct. Some content creators pointed out that the federal minimum wage has sat at $7.25 per hour since 2009 despite the cost of living skyrocketing.

Kimberly Casamento recently began a TikTok series walking viewers through recipes from a cookbook that was focused on affordable meals published in 2009. The New Jersey-based digital media manager said she’s found costs for what were then considered low-budget meals ballooning between about 100% and 150%. In addition to sharing the price changes, the 33-year-old gives viewers some tips on how to keep costs down.

“Every aspect of life is so expensive that it’s hard for anybody to survive,” Casamento said. “If you can cut the cost of your meal by $5, then that’s a win.”

‘A very human thing’

This type of communal knowledge-sharing is common during times of economic belt tightening, according to Megan Way, an associate professor at Babson College who studies family and intergenerational economics. While conversations about how to slash costs or to make meals stretch typically took place among neighbors in the late 2000s, Way said it makes sense that they would now play out in the digital square with the rise of social media.

“It’s a very human thing to reach out to others when things are feeling uncertain and try to gain on their experience,” Way said. “It can really make a difference for feeling like you’re moving forward a little prepared. One of the worst things for an economy is absolute fear.”

Read more CNBC analysis on culture and the economy

Way said that Americans are quick to look back to the Great Recession for a guide because that downturn was so shocking and widely felt. However, she said there’s key differences between that economic situation and what the U.S. is facing today, such as the absence of bad debt that sparked the housing market’s crash.

Still, she said there’s broad uncertainty felt today on several fronts — be it tied to the economy, geopolitics or domestic policy priorities like slashing the federal workforce or limiting immigration. That can reignite the feeling of unpredictability about what the future will bring that was paramount during the Great Recession, Way said.

In 2025, it’s clear that economic confidence among the average American is rapidly souring. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment recorded one of its worst readings in more than seven decades this month.

With that negative economic outlook comes rising stress. When Lukas Battle made a satirical TikTok about feeling like divorces were increasingly common around the time of the Great Recession, the 27-year-old’s comments were abuzz with people talking about their parents splitting recently. (Though divorce has been seen as a cultural hallmark of the financial crisis, data shows the rate actually declined during this period.)

“There’s a second round of divorces happening as we speak,” Battle said.

Cultural parallels

That’s one of several parallels social media users have drawn between the late aughts and today. When videos surfaced of a group dancing to Doechii’s hit song “Anxiety,” several commenters on X reported feeling déjà vu to when flashmob performances were common.

Disney‘s reboot of the animated show “Phineas and Ferb,” which originally premiered in the late 2000s, similarly put the era top of mind.

Lady Gaga performing at Coachella 2017

Getty Images | Christopher Polk

“Recession pop,” a phrase mainly referring to the subgenre of trendy music that dropped during the Global Financial Crisis, has caught a second wave over the past year as Americans contended with inflation and high interest rates.

Now, in 2025, as the chorus of voices projecting a recession ahead grows, pop music has some familiar sounds.

In 2008, artists such as Miley Cyrus, Lady Gaga and Katy Perry regularly appeared on the music charts. Both Cyrus and Gaga have released new songs this year. Perry kicked off a world tour this week.

“It’s almost a permission to feel good, whether that’s through song or something,” said Sills, the marketer in Louisiana. “It’s not necessarily ignoring the problems that are here, but just maybe finding some sort of joy or fun in the midst of all of it.”

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Predictions for the Democrats’ future

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Predictions for the Democrats’ future

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ECB members say inflation job nearly done but tariff risks loom

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Guests and attendeess mingle and walk through the atrium during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, on April 24, 2025.

Jim Watson | Afp | Getty Images

After years dominated by the pandemic, supply chains, energy and inflation, there was a new topic topping the agenda at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings this year: tariffs.

The IMF set the tone by kicking off the week with the release of its latest economic forecasts, which cut growth outlooks for the U.S., U.K. and many Asian countries. While economists, central bankers and politicians have been engaged in panels and behind-the-scenes talks, many are attempting to work out whether trade tensions between China and the U.S. are — or perhaps are not — cooling.

Policymakers from the European Central Bank that CNBC spoke to this week broadly stuck a dovish-leaning tone, indicating they saw interest rates continuing to fall and few upside risks to euro zone inflation. However, all stressed the current high levels of uncertainty, the need to keep monitoring data, and the high risks to the growth outlook — sentiments also echoed by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in his interview with CNBC on Thursday.

These were some of the main messages from ECB members this week.

Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank president

On inflation and monetary policy:

“We’re heading towards our [inflation] target in the course of 2025, so that disinflationary process is so much on track that we are nearing completion. But we have the shocks, you know, and the shocks will be a dampen on GDP. It’s a negative shock to demand.”

“The net impact on inflation will depend on what countermeasures are eventually taken by Europe. Then we have to take into account the [German] fiscal push by the defense investments, by the infrastructure fund.”

“We have seen successive movements, you know, announcement [of U.S. tariffs], and then a pause, and then some exemptions. So we have to be very attentive… Either we cut, either we pause, but we will be data dependent to the extreme.”

Watch CNBC's full interview with ECB president Christine Lagarde

On market moves:

“When we had done our projections, we anticipated that… the dollar would appreciate, the euro would depreciate. It’s not what we saw. And there have been some counter-intuitive movements in various categories.”

“The German market has obviously been shocked in a positive way by the program soon to be put in place by the German government, with a commitment to defense, with a commitment to a big fund for infrastructure development.”

Klaas Knot, The Netherlands Bank president

On tariff uncertainty:

“If I look back over the last 14 years, in the initial days of the pandemic I think that was comparable uncertainty to what we have now.”

“In the short run, it’s crystal clear that the uncertainty that is created by the unpredictability of the tariff actions by the U.S. government works as a strong negative factor for growth. Basically, uncertainty is like a tax without revenue.”

On the inflation impact:

“In the short run, we will have lower growth. We will probably also have lower inflation. As we also see, the euro is appreciating as energy prices have also come down. So together with the sort of negative factor uncertainty in the short run, it’s crystal clear that it will accelerate the disinflation.”

It's 'crystal clear' that tariffs could hit growth in the short term, ECB's Knot says

“But in the medium term, the inflation outlook is not all that clear. I think there are still these negative factors. But in the medium term, you might get retaliation. You might get the disruption of global value chains, which might also be inflationary in other parts of the world than the U.S. only. And then, of course, we have the fiscal policy coming in in Europe. So this is actually a time in which you need projections.”

On a June rate cut and market pricing for two more ECB rate cuts in 2025:

“I’m fully open minded. I think it’s way too early to already take a position on June, whether it would be another cut. It will fully depend on these projections.”

“I would need to see a more structured analysis of the impact on the inflation profile ahead of us, and only then can I say whether the market is pricing fair or whether I don’t.”

Robert Holzmann, Austrian National Bank governor

On the need to wait for more data and news on tariffs:

“We have not seen this uncertainty now for years… unless the uncertainty subsides, by the right decisions, we will have to hold back a number of our decisions, and hence, we don’t know yet in what direction monetary policy should be best moved.”

“Before looking at data in detail, the question is, what kind of political decisions will be taken? Is it that we will have some tariff increases? Is it that we will have strong tariff increases? Is it that we will have retribution by high counter tariffs?”

We have not seen this much uncertainty for years, Austrian central bank governor says

On the ECB’s April rate cut:

“I think there’s a broad consensus [on rates]. But of course, at the margin, people differ.”

“My assessment is that at this time, it wasn’t clear yet to what extent [tariff] countermeasures were being taken. Because with countermeasures in Europe, prices may have increased. Without countermeasures, quite likely the price pressure is downward. And for the time being, we don’t know yet the direction.”

On the direction of interest rates:

“I think if the recent noises about an arrangement [on trade] were to be true, in this case, quite likely it is more towards the downside than the upside with regard to prices. But this can be changed with different decisions and the result of which, we may even imagine in [the] other direction. For the time being, no, it will be down.”

“There may be further cuts this year, but the number is still outstanding.”

Mārtiņš Kazāks, Bank of Latvia governor

On opportunity from tariffs:

“With all this uncertainty and vulnerability, this is also the time of opportunities for Europe.”

“It’s a time for Europe to grasp all the aspects of being an economic superpower and becoming a really fully-fledged political and geopolitical superpower, and this requires doing all the decisions that in the past, were not carried out fully.”

“This requires political will, political guts to make those decisions, and to strengthen the European economy and assert its place in a global world.”

Global vulnerability an opportunity for Europe, says ECB's Kazāks

On market reaction to tariffs:

“So far it seems to be relatively orderly … but if one looks at the spillovers to Europe, the financial markets are working more or less fine, we haven’t seen spreads exploding or anything like that.”

“But in terms, however, of the macro scenarios, this uncertainty is extremely elevated in the sense that, given the possible outcomes, the multiple scenarios and their probabilities are very similar with the baseline [tariff] scenario.”

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