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Donald Trump wasn’t MAGA’s only winner on Super Tuesday

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By the end of the night on Super Tuesday the 2024 presidential race remained largely unchanged. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are still the presumptive nominees. So great are their margins over their respective primary opponents that some pundits were splitting hairs over whether Mr Trump winning Texas by 60 points rather than his 65-point lead in polls boded poorly.

But beyond the unsurprising presidential results, a glance at down-ballot races shows a familiar Republican strategy playing out again. In some states MAGA Republicans are repeating their 2022 playbook by nominating extremist candidates who perform well with their base in a primary contest but face a steeper climb in a general election.

In North Carolina Mark Robinson, the state’s lieutenant-governor, won the Republican gubernatorial primary. A conspiracy theorist who has quoted Hitler and compared gay people to maggots, he attracts hard-core voters (see chart). In November he will face the state’s attorney-general, Josh Stein, a moderate Democrat. In a state that runs three points more Republican than the country, the party was poised to be especially competitive in this race to replace the current term-limited Democratic governor. Instead Mr Robinson risks alienating moderates and independents.

Chart: The Economist

Texas had a MAGA insurgency. That forced Tony Gonzales, a Republican representative, into a run-off with Brandon Herrera, a YouTube personality known as the “AK Guy” for his support of semi-automatic rifles. The state party had censured Mr Gonzales last March in part for supporting a gun-control bill in the aftermath of the Uvalde shooting in which 19 schoolchildren and two teachers were murdered. Mayra Flores, a Trump acolyte who voted against same-sex marriage, won her primary to face the incumbent Democrat, Vicente Gonzalez. And many of the Republicans who had opposed the governor, Greg Abbott, and the attorney-general, Ken Paxton, over the past two years suffered retribution. At least 17 of these candidates were either forced into run-offs or lost outright.

During the 2022 midterm elections, nominating conspiracy theorists and election-deniers proved to be a tripwire. Voters punished these candidates at the ballot box. Republicans failed to recapture the Senate and even lost a seat, missing out on the usual midterm gains for the party that does not hold the presidency. That has not stopped Republicans from doing more of the same.

Stay on top of American politics with The US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important electoral stories, and Checks and Balance, a weekly note from our Lexington columnist that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters.

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Who is (or was) the smartest person in government?

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Consumer sentiment worsens as inflation fears grow, University of Michigan survey shows

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A shopper pays with a credit card at the farmer’s market in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, March 27, 2025. 

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The deterioration in consumer sentiment was even worse than anticipated in March as worries over inflation intensified, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.

The final version of the university’s closely watched Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 57.0 for the month, down 11.9% from February and 28.2% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 57.9, which was the mid-month level.

It was the third consecutive decrease and stretched across party lines and income groups, survey director Joanne Hsu said.

“Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments,” she said.

In addition to worries about the current state of affairs, the survey’s index of consumer expectations tumbled to 52.6, down 17.8% from a month ago and 32% for the same period in 2024.

Inflation fears drove much of the downturn. Respondents expect inflation a year from now to run at a 5% rate, up 0.1 percentage point from the mid-month reading and a 0.7 percentage point acceleration from February. At the five-year horizon, the outlook now is for 4.1%, the first time the survey has had a reading above 4% since February 1993.

Economists worry that President Donald Trump’s tariff plans will spur more inflation, possibly curtailing the Federal Reserve from further interest rate cuts.

The report came the same day that the Commerce Department said the core inflation rate increased to 2.8% in February, after a 0.4% monthly gain that was the biggest move since January 2024.

The latest results also reflect worries over the labor market, with the level of consumers expecting the unemployment rate to rise at the highest level since 2009.

Stocks took a hit after the university’s survey was released, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading more than 500 points lower.

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PCE inflation February 2025:

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Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, hotter than expected; spending increases 0.4%

The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure rose more than expected in February while consumer spending also posted a smaller than projected increase, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 0.4% increase for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective numbers of 0.3% and and 2.7%.

Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices and is generally considered a better indicator of long-term inflation trends.

In the all-items measure, the price index rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with forecasts.

At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast. That came as personal income posted a 0.8% rise, against the estimate for 0.4%.

Stock market futures moved lower following the release as did Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve officials focus on the PCE inflation reading as they consider it a broader measure that also adjusts for changes in consumer behavior and places less of an emphasis on housing than the Labor Department’s consumer price index. Shelter costs have been one of the stickier elements of inflation and rose 0.3% in the PCE measure.

“It looks like a ‘wait-and-see’ Fed still has more waiting to do,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Today’s higher-than-expected inflation reading wasn’t exceptionally hot, but it isn’t going to speed up the Fed’s timeline for cutting interest rates, especially given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.”

Good prices increased 0.2%, led by recreational goods and vehicles, which increased 0.5%. Gasoline offset some of the increase, with the category falling by 0.8%. Services prices were up 0.4%.

The report comes with markets on edge that President Donald Trump’s tariff intentions will aggravate inflation at a time when the data was making slow but steady progress back to the Fed’s 2% goal.

After cutting rates a full percentage point in 2024, the central bank has been on hold this year, with officials of late expressing concern over the impact the import duties will have on prices. Economists tends to consider tariffs as one-off events that don’t feed through to longer-lasting inflation pressures, but the encompassing scope of Trump’s tariffs and the potential for an aggressive global trade war are changing the stakes.

Correction: Consumer spending increased 0.4% in February. An earlier headline misstated the number.

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