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Donald Trump’s DEI assessment

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The Economist has been handed a confidential memo by a consultancy with way too much time on its hands

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Economics

The Biden administration pursued a mistaken policy on LNG exports

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“WE CAN NOW assess the future of natural gas exports based on the facts.” So declared Jennifer Granholm, America’s outgoing energy secretary, in a statement published on December 17th. It accompanied a research report from the Department of Energy (DoE) on the implications of increased exports of American liquefied natural gas (LNG). Despite her reassuring tone, this was a sharp-elbowed effort to place an obstacle in the way of the incoming Trump administration.

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Economics

How the Democrats wandered away from America’s workers

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“Free trade’s just a dandy concept/Advertisers tell us so/Don’t you question, don’t you doubt it/You’re so stupid. You don’t know.” So goes a song Sherrod Brown composed on his guitar back in 1993, when he was a freshman congressman from Ohio helping lead the fight against ratifying the North American Free Trade Agreement. The new president, Bill Clinton, was a Democrat, too, and he had agonised during his campaign over the trade deal, negotiated by his Republican predecessor. He eventually came out in support of it while promising to strengthen its protections for workers and the environment. The new protections did not go nearly far enough for Mr Brown, and his song expressed his aggravation with what he saw as a blinkered and patronising uniformity of elite opinion. In the end Mr Clinton rallied enough Democrats to join with most Republicans to ratify the treaty.

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Economics

Bank of England holds rates but vote split surprises markets

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The Bank of England pictured in December 2024.

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LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday ended its last meeting of the year with a decision to leave interest rates unchanged, after U.K. inflation rose to an eight-month high.

Analysts had widely expected a rate hold at the December meeting, as policymakers remain concerned with stubborn services inflation and wage growth.

The BOE has already taken its key rate from 5.25% to 4.75% this year in two quarter-percentage-point moves.

In a deviation from expectations, three members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce rates, while six were in favor of a hold. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast only one member would vote to cut.

Sterling pared gains against the U.S. dollar directly following the BOE announcement, trading 0.2% higher at 12:22 p.m. The greenback staged a broad rally on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point but signaled a more hawkish outlook for 2025. It gave up some gains on Thursday morning.

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In a statement, the BOE said the increase in U.K. headline inflation in November to 2.6% was slightly higher than previously expected, adding that services inflation remained “elevated.”

BOE staff also downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024, now predicting no growth, compared with the 0.3% expansion predicted in its November report.

U.K. growth figures have come in weaker than expected in recent months, with the economy posting a surprise 0.1% contraction in October.

Money markets this week pared back bets on the pace of further trims next year after the publication of data on inflation and summer wage growth, and are now pricing in roughly 50 basis points of upcoming cuts, down from an outlook of around 70 basis points’ worth of cuts on Monday.

“The split vote decision and the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that a February interest rate cut remains very much in play, if not yet a done deal,” Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said in emailed comments.

“The Bank of England risks backing itself into a corner over the pace of policy loosening because, with inflation likely to drift higher, the timing of future interest rate cuts could become increasingly complex, especially if stagflation fears become reality.”

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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