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DoubleLine’s Gundlach says expect higher rates if Republicans also win House

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Jeffrey Gundlach speaks at the 24th Annual Sohn Investment Conference in New York, May 6, 2019.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday that interest rates could shoot higher if Republicans end up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.

Gundlach, a noted fixed-income investor whose firm manages over $96 billion, believes the higher government spending would require more borrowing through Treasury issuance, putting upward pressure on bond yields.

“If the House goes to Republicans, there’s going to be a lot of debt, there’s going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”

The race to control the House is undecided as of Thursday after Republicans clinched their new Senate majority. The Federal Reserve cut rates Thursday, and traders expect the central bank to cut again in December and several times in 2025.

Notable investors such as Gundlach have been voicing concerns about the challenging fiscal situation. Fiscal 2024 just ended with the government running a budget deficit in excess of $1.8 trillion, including more than $1.1 trillion dedicated solely to paying financing costs on the $36 trillion U.S. debt.

“Trump says he’s going to cut taxes … he’s very pro cyclical stimulus,” Gundlach said. “So it looks to me that there will be some pressure on interest rates, and particularly at the long end. I think that this election result is very, very consequential.”

If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add a significant amount to the nation’s debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.

Still, Gundlach, who had predicted a recession in the U.S., said the Trump presidency makes such an economic downturn less likely.

“I do think that it’s right to see the Trump victory as being as reducing the odds for near-term recession fairly substantially,” Gundlach said. “Certainly, the odds of recession drop when you have this type of agenda being promoted in plain English for the past three months by Mr. Trump.”

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Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China. 

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well. 

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”

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Finance

Pilotless planes are taking flight in China. Bank of America says it's time to buy

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While startups around the world have tried to build vehicles that can fly without a pilot, only one is certified to carry people — in China.

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Insiders at UnitedHealth are scooping up tarnished shares

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Key Points

  • UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
  • Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
  • Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.

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