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Election mentions jump on company conference calls as Nov. 5 approaches

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Voters walk to cast their ballots during early voting in the presidential election at a polling station at the C. Blythe Andrews, Jr. Public Library in Tampa, Florida, U.S., November 1, 2024. 

Octavio Jones | Reuters

Executives at America’s largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles.

The word “election” came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500-listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. That’s the highest number of companies in the broad index mentioning the word during that timeframe, according to CNBC screens of the same period going back to 2004.

The economy is on the minds of everyday Americans as they head to the polls for what’s shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the same time, white-collar leaders are considering potential policy impacts on their businesses, while lamenting a general uncertainty tied to the political season.

Because of election uncertainty and a variety of other things, you can feel a little bit of caution out there,” Dover CEO Richard Tobin told analysts on the specialty manufacturer’s earnings call in late October.

FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters first pointed out the volume of companies discussing elections in recent weeks. Notably, his data found that very few executives of S&P 500 companies mentioned Harris or Trump by name, talking about the race more broadly.

‘Prudent’ clients

Multiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients.

At Tractor Supply, CEO Harry Lawton said its customer was expected to remain “prudent” like past election years. That comes after the farm-focused retailer reported a bump in emergency response sales to start the quarter following Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Southwest Airlines, meanwhile, expects a “trough” in air travel around Election Day, according to operations chief Andrew Watterson. But when it comes to booking trends, Royal Caribbean CEO Michael Bayley said there has historically been no long-term impact from presidential elections, though the cruise line may see some volatility the week of the contest.

Southwest Airlines airplanes are serviced at their gates at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on May 18, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty Images

In addition to Election Day, market participants and business leaders are also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week. Tool maker Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan listed both the election and interest rates as reasons to anticipate “choppy markets” into the first half of 2025.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 96% chance of a decrease to the borrowing cost at the November meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool as of Friday evening. That comes after the central bank in September issued its first rate cut since 2020.

Stanley Black & Decker’s Allan also pointed out Trump’s policy on taxing imports, noting that America would be “likely in a new tariff regime.” The Republican nominee has said he plans to impose a 20% tax on imports, with an extra high rate of 60% on those coming from China.

William Grogan, CFO of water infrastructure company Xylem, said the election is one factor creating a “little bit of a pause” in the industrial market for big projects. Republic Services CEO Jon Vander Ark said the waste disposal company sees “a little bit of paralysis in an election year,” but he’s optimistic heading into the end of 2024 and start of 2025.

Watching the economy

More broadly, Eric Ashleman CEO of Idex, which makes components for everything from air bags to DNA testing equipment, said the race hasn’t helped the economic backdrop recently.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by the smallest number of jobs in October going back to late 2020 due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. In this vein, Equifax said it saw softness in background screening volumes as executives consider what the outcome can mean for their businesses.

“Coming into the election, it feels like companies are being a little more prudent about the new hiring,” Equifax CEO Mark Begor said.

To be sure, some of the “election” mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care. Other firms ranging from software company Tyler Technologies to credit card giant American Express said they haven’t felt impacts from the election on the business.

“This company has been around a long time,” American Express CEO Stephen Squeri told analysts last month. “I mean, obviously, we didn’t have cards 174 years ago. But we’ve been around for lots of different elections; lots of different configurations of the House, the Senate and so forth.”

Equity Residential CEO Mark Parrell, meanwhile, said state and local government is considered more important to the business than which party is victorious on the top of the ticket. Indeed, the company is a real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.

Moving forward

Still, this cycle has appeared to engage a uniquely high number of leaders within corporate America’s largest firms. The 2024 mentions count equates to the word “election” during that timeframe coming up on calls of around one in every five companies within the S&P 500. It’s also more than triple the number of references during the same period in 2008.

D.R. Horton is seeing buyers “stay on the sidelines” given the expectation for lower mortgage rates in 2025 and the stress tied to the election, according to CEO Paul Romanowski. The homebuilder is attempting to boost demand by offering mortgage buydowns and focusing on building houses with smaller floor plans, he said.

Another member of D.R. Horton’s C-suite spoke about the election more bluntly.

“I think everybody would be happy the election is over,” chief operating officer Michael Murray told analysts on the company’s earnings call. “I think that will help buyer sentiment and the ability to move forward with their life decision.”

Economics

Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Economics

Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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Economics

Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

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IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

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