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ETF strategies heading into the U.S. presidential election

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Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, there could be some clear winners for exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, experts say. 

Whoever becomes president next — former President Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Kamala Harris — will leave their mark on U.S. policy, and that poses challenges to the status quo going forward, particularly when it comes to taxes, regulation and trade.

“They are risks today, but they turn out to be opportunities once we get there,” Kim Wallace, senior managing director and head of Washington policy research at market research firm 22V, said during a webinar hosted by ETF.com in late October.

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Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

The panel also included Anu Ganti, U.S. head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.

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However, most financial advisors caution against making hasty changes to your investment portfolio based on the outcome of this election.

If history is a guide, there have been times when the results on the sector level were “counterintuitive,” Hooper said.

For example, during the first Trump administration there was support for traditional energy as the country leaned toward ramping up U.S. oil production, but “interestingly, during that period we saw energy stocks underperform,” Hooper said.

Alternatively, under the Biden administration, energy stocks performed better. “Sometimes what we think might happen isn’t actually what happens,” Hooper said.

The element of surprise

Further, in 2016, the S&P 500 rose 4% in November but there was a “whopping 19% spread among sectors,” according to Ganti. “There was a huge element of surprise there,” she said. “None of us really knows what is going to happen in the future.”

“Surprise is always an element of politics and policy,” said 22V’s Wallace, “so too are expectations rooted in what you can see and price now.”

Despite the likelihood of “very significant volatility” in the near term — or at least until the election is certified in January — there are other drivers like the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cuts that will impact investors more over the longer term, Hooper said.

“Once we get beyond electoral risk in the U.S., both companies and macroeconomic fundamentals will dominate,” Wallace also said.

Buffer ETFs can protect from losses

In the meantime, “investors should be thinking about a variety of different tools to offer diversification and dampen volatility in portfolios,” said Hooper.

In this case, so-called buffer exchange-traded funds could provide some downside protection.

Buffer ETFs, also known as defined-outcome ETFs, use options contracts to offer investors a predefined range of outcomes over a set period. The funds are tied to an underlying index, such as the S&P 500.

But these ETFs also come with higher fees than traditional ETFs and typically need to be held for a year to get the full benefit.

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Personal Finance

One thing all parents should do with their estate plan

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Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc

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‘Tough conversations’ that ‘strengthen relationships’

Douglas Boneparth, a certified financial planner, agreed with Buffett’s advice to reveal your estate plan.

“These are tough conversations to have, but they’re meaningful and when approached correctly, can strengthen relationships,” said Boneparth, who is the president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth in New York City and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

Your want your children to have realistic expectations about their inheritance, Boneparth said.

“Kids’ imagination can run wild with what they think they should be getting,” he said. As a result, you should be as clear and thorough as possible about who will receive what and why.

People might worry about hurting their kids’ feelings, or hearing from one that they think something is unfair. Well, that’s exactly why you want to discuss it, and not “punt that mess for when you’re not around,” Boneparth said.

Kids’ imagination can run wild with what they think they should be getting.

Douglas Boneparth

a certified financial planner

In his letter, Buffett recalled that over the years he witnessed “many families driven apart after the posthumous dictates of the will left beneficiaries confused and sometimes angry. Jealousies, along with actual or imagined slights during childhood, became magnified.”

If the inheritance is not split equally between siblings, you’ll want to explain why, Boneparth said. Maybe one child will receive more because another got help with a down payment on a house or attended a far more expensive college, he said. A child with a spending problem might inherit a trust, Boneparth added, in which they receive their bequest in regular installments.

If one child is in a much better financial situation than another, you might explore with the more comfortable one if they’d be OK with you leaving them less, said CFP Carolyn McClanahan, founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.

Aitor Diago | Moment | Getty Images

You might ask the well-off child, McClanahan said, “‘Do you really care how I leave our assets? Because your brother is an artist and could use a little more help.'”

“That way that child is not slighted when they actually find out,” she said.

In Buffett’s letter, he writes: “There is nothing wrong with my having to defend my thoughts. My dad did the same with me.”

When ‘sharing that information can be damaging’

Buffett’s point that adult children should be invited to weigh in on the will is usually good one, said McClanahan, who is also a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

“When you’re creating your estate document, ask your children in advance what’s important to them,” McClanahan said. “That way, you can keep that in mind.”

In rare cases, it’s best for parents to withhold certain information in their will, McClanahan said.

For example, she would recommend a parent be more cautious if a child has exploited them financially. Meanwhile, if a child is irresponsible with jobs or money, learning that they stand to inherit a lot may further erode their work ethic and ambition, McClanahan said.

“If you have children who are not mature, sharing that information can be damaging,” she said, adding that she may recommend clients in these situations write a letter to their children, which they won’t see until after they’ve passed, explaining their estate decisions.

“Every family is different,” McClanahan said. “That’s why there should be no set rule.”

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Chip Leighton teenager texts show how little some kids know about money

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Chip Leighton’s viral ‘teenager texts’ highlight how little some kids know about money.

Courtesy: Chip Leighton

Chip Leighton knows how funny kids can be.

As the creator of “The Leighton Show,” his social media posts, which have collectively been seen more than 250 million times, hilariously highlight some of the texts teenagers send their parents. Many are related to money.

“A mom told me the other day that when she told her teenager that she’d registered for a 401(k) at her new job, the response was ‘How much is that in miles?'”

Leighton, who has two children of his own, receives thousands of messages from parents of teenagers across the country — some of which he uses for content. “There’s definitely a lot of good money ones,” he said.

Often questions are the most basic, from “Do I need to tip the eye doctor?” to “Hey, is the ATM going to be open later?”

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Leighton said it’s not necessarily that kids know less about financial topics today, it’s simply that these questions are more likely documented in a text now.

“I tell parents not to sweat it, but there are a few doozies in there,” he said.

Among other recent queries: “What is generational wealth and why don’t we have it?” and “Do I have a trust fund?” Another classic: “What is my net worth?”

His new book “What Time Is Noon?” covers some of the best — or worst — texts from teenagers.

One section is devoted entirely to money-related topics, often related to a first job or taxes. With no shortage of material, a sequel is likely to follow, he said.

Leighton retired from a corporate career last year. Being a social media content creator is now his full-time second act.

The value of learning financial basics

In many ways, these could be teachable moments, Leighton said — and there has been growing momentum to cover these topics in high school.

As of 2024, only half of all states require or are in the process of requiring high school students to take a personal finance course before graduating, according to the latest data from Next Gen Personal Finance, a nonprofit focused on providing financial education to middle and high school students.

“In the absence of a national or state-wide strategy to teach youth about personal finance in schools,” there is something to be said for online communities that “openly talk about money and finances,” said Billy Hensley, NEFE’s president and CEO. Hensley is also a member of the CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board.

However, there should an “overall strategy for your individual financial management,” he said.

Parents want schools to step up in teaching kids financial literacy

Further, students with a financial literacy course under their belt have better average credit scores and lower debt delinquency rates as young adults, according to data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s Investor Education Foundation, which seeks to promote financial education.

In addition, a 2018 report by the Brookings Institution found that teenage financial literacy is positively correlated with asset accumulation and net worth by age 25.

Among adults, those with greater financial literacy find it easier to make ends meet in a typical month, are more likely to make loan payments in full and on time and less likely to be constrained by debt or be considered financially fragile.

They are also more likely to save and plan for retirement, according to data from the TIAA Institute-GFLEC Personal Finance Index based on research collected annually since 2017.

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Millennials will spend big this holiday season, TransUnion finds

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Parents tend to splurge on their children during the holidays.

This year, 63% of millennials, many of whom now have school-age children of their own, said they plan to spend the same or more on holiday shopping as they did last year — the highest share of any generation, according to a quarterly report by TransUnion.

Millennials are also more likely to say their income went up over the last few months and that they expect their earnings potential to increase again in the year ahead. TransUnion polled 3,000 adults in October.

“I see a lot of optimism going into the holiday season,” said Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president and head of global research and consulting.

For many in this group, recent wage gains have outpaced rising prices and, although the broader unemployment rate has ticked higher, “we are still seeing a steady employment situation,” Wise said. “When people have jobs, that confidence is going to translate into spending.”

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“It’s clear that millennials will play the largest role this holiday shopping season with the greatest expected spend,” Wise said.

Holiday spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 is forecast to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.17 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared with last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers surveyed in September said they still had not paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to a holiday spending report by NerdWallet, which polled more than 1,700 adults.  

Holiday spending may lead to holiday debt

While most shoppers — 74% — use credit cards to buy holiday gifts, 28% will dip into savings to make their purchases, and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services, NerdWallet found. Survey respondents could choose multiple payment methods.

Buy now, pay later is one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is expected to become more popular in the weeks ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts buy now, pay later spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day record of $993 million.

However, managing multiple buy now, pay later loans with different payment dates may make it more likely for consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than with credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

Market Navigator: Buy now, pay later boom

Sometimes, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0% interest, according to Marshall Lux, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

“If used properly, it’s great,” Lux said.

“But a lot of people are going to spread out purchases over a longer period of time and then you get into high interest and a cycle of debt,” he said.

The more buy now, pay later accounts consumers have open at once, the more prone they become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

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