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Euro zone inflation, July 2024

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People shopping at the downtown market, Cour Lafayette, in Toulon, on July 27, 2024.

Magali Cohen / Hans Lucas | Afp | Getty Images

Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday, even as price growth in the services sector eased slightly.

In June, inflation had come in at 2.5%, easing slightly from the 2.6% of May. Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting the headline figure for July to be unchanged from June’s reading at 2.5%.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, versus a Reuters estimate of 2.8%. The figure compared with a core print of 2.9% in June.

The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, down from the 4.1% of June.

Harmonized inflation inched higher in several key euro zone countries, including in leading economies Germany and France. In both countries, inflation had been at 2.5% in June and picked up to 2.6% in July.

The inflation rates come just a day after the release of the zone’s second-quarter gross domestic product data, which the European Union’s statistics office said grew 0.3% in the three months to the end of June.

This was above the 0.2% growth that economists polled by Reuters had expected, and came even as the euro zone’s largest economy, Germany, reported a 0.1% contraction.

Investors will now weigh how the fresh data will impact the European Central Bank’s trajectory for potential future interest rate cuts. The ECB held rates steady when it met earlier this month after reducing them in June. At the time, it left open the option for another cut in September.

The ECB Governing Council said it would continue to consider the dynamics and outlook of inflation, as well as the strength of monetary policy transmission in its decision-making. It stressed that was “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, on Wednesday said that the latest inflation figures are unlikely to significantly impact the outlook for interest rates.

“While the hotter-than-expected headline inflation could be seen as a setback for the ECB, we don’t think it necessarily changes the narrative. Indeed, economic growth remains subdued — including the Q2 GDP print — which should help inflation remain on a downtrend,” he said.

The ECB could therefore still cut interest rates in September, Lafargue noted.

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Why stricter voting laws no longer help Republicans

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“The Republicans should pray for rain”—the title of a paper published by a trio of political scientists in 2007—has been an axiom of American elections for years. The logic was straightforward: each inch of election-day showers, the study found, dampened turnout by 1%. Lower turnout gave Republicans an edge because the party’s affluent electorate had the resources to vote even when it was inconvenient. Their opponents, less so.

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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