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Euro zone inflation, July 2024

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People shopping at the downtown market, Cour Lafayette, in Toulon, on July 27, 2024.

Magali Cohen / Hans Lucas | Afp | Getty Images

Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday, even as price growth in the services sector eased slightly.

In June, inflation had come in at 2.5%, easing slightly from the 2.6% of May. Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting the headline figure for July to be unchanged from June’s reading at 2.5%.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, versus a Reuters estimate of 2.8%. The figure compared with a core print of 2.9% in June.

The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, down from the 4.1% of June.

Harmonized inflation inched higher in several key euro zone countries, including in leading economies Germany and France. In both countries, inflation had been at 2.5% in June and picked up to 2.6% in July.

The inflation rates come just a day after the release of the zone’s second-quarter gross domestic product data, which the European Union’s statistics office said grew 0.3% in the three months to the end of June.

This was above the 0.2% growth that economists polled by Reuters had expected, and came even as the euro zone’s largest economy, Germany, reported a 0.1% contraction.

Investors will now weigh how the fresh data will impact the European Central Bank’s trajectory for potential future interest rate cuts. The ECB held rates steady when it met earlier this month after reducing them in June. At the time, it left open the option for another cut in September.

The ECB Governing Council said it would continue to consider the dynamics and outlook of inflation, as well as the strength of monetary policy transmission in its decision-making. It stressed that was “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, on Wednesday said that the latest inflation figures are unlikely to significantly impact the outlook for interest rates.

“While the hotter-than-expected headline inflation could be seen as a setback for the ECB, we don’t think it necessarily changes the narrative. Indeed, economic growth remains subdued — including the Q2 GDP print — which should help inflation remain on a downtrend,” he said.

The ECB could therefore still cut interest rates in September, Lafargue noted.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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