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Euro zone inflation March 2024

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Two women hold an umbrella while sitting at an outdoor table of a cafe on April 01, 2024 in Rome, Italy. 

Emanuele Cremaschi | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone eased to 2.4% in March, according to flash figures published by the European Union’s statistics agency Wednesday, boosting expectations for interest rate cuts to begin in the summer.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the rate would hold steady against the previous month at 2.6%.

The core rate of inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, cooled from 3.1% to 2.9%, also coming in below expectations.

However, inflation in services — a key watcher for the European Central Bank — remained stuck at 4% for a fifth straight month, pointing to continued pressure from wage growth.

Another indicator for the ECB released Wednesday, the euro area unemployment rate, stood at 6.5% in February, stable against January but down from 6.6% in February 2023.

Price rises in France and Spain came in lower than forecast last week. On Tuesday, headline inflation in the bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, was estimated at a three-year low of 2.2%.

Markets expect the euro zone’s central bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in June — a position reflected in the recent messaging of ECB decision-makers. They are next set to hold a monetary policy meeting on April 11.

Even Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann, an ECB hawk who previously said it was possible that no cuts at all would take place in 2024, told Reuters this week that he did not have an “in-principle objection to easing in June.”

“The current narrative is clearly pointing to a first rate cut in June,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said in a note Wednesday. That is due to the March inflation print as well as the data on wage growth and ECB staff forecasts on gross domestic product and inflation that will be released by then, he said.

Kamil Kovar, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the release of Wednesday “poured cold water on the idea that the last mile in defeating inflation will be hardest,” and reiterated a call for five rate cuts this year.

“Inflation has declined despite a jump in energy inflation, and a boost from an early Easter. Even if the good headline number masked some less favorable details, such as services coming in hot while food prices tumbled, inflation overall is still on course to dip below 2% sometime during the summer,” Kovar said.

Economics

What would Robert F. Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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on

AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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