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Fed officials are raising concerns about Trump’s tariffs and inflation

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Austan Goolsbee speaking at Jackson Hole on August 23, 2024.

David A. Grogan | CNBC

Federal Reserve officials take great pains not to comment on fiscal policy, but the looming threat from tariffs is forcing their hand.

In recent days, multiple central bank policymakers not only have noted the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s desire to slap broad-ranging duties on products from Canada, Mexico and China — and perhaps the European Union — they also have highlighted the potential impact on inflation.

Any indication that the tariffs are presenting longer-lasting pressure in prices could make the Fed hold interest rates higher for longer.

In remarks at an auto symposium Wednesday in Detroit, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cited a number of supply chain threats that include “large tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war.”

“If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs,” Goolsbee said. “That distinction will be critical for deciding when or even if the Fed should act.”

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Goolsbee is a voting member, voted to hold its benchmark interest rate steady in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% as it evaluates the evolving set of economic conditions.

The vote came amid a backdrop of gamesmanship between Trump and the largest U.S. trading partners, in which he postponed levies against Canada and Mexico but added 10% in tariffs against China, which retaliated with its own measures.

Economists generally see tariffs as having one-time impacts on prices, affecting particular goods where the duties are targeted but not acting as more widespread and more fundamental drivers of inflation. However, in this case Trump is casting a wide enough net that it could generate the kind of underlying inflation the Fed fears.

A limited road map

In an interview earlier this week with CNBC, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, also an FOMC voter, said she and her staff are studying the potential impact of tariffs, and she noted the unusual nature of the sweeping tariffs Trump has proposed.

“We have limited experience of such large and very broad-based tariffs,” she said. “There are many different dimensions, and there are second-round effects as well, which make it particularly hard to really assess what the amounts would be … We don’t know what the time frame would be that would cause a rise in a price level.”

If the tariffs were short-lived, “you’d expect the Federal Reserve would try to look through. But of course, there are many factors going on from that perspective. So I’ll just say quickly that the underlying trends in inflation in the economy really matter a lot for how, you know, how I think about policy going forward.”

Other Fed officials, such as Philadelphia President Patrick Harker and the Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, also said they are concerned about potential inflationary effects and said they also will be watching for longer-term impacts.

For his part, Chair Jerome Powell deflected multiple questions about tariffs at his post-meeting news conference last week, saying it’s too early to make judgments about fiscal policy.

“We don’t know what will happen with tariffs, with immigration, with fiscal policy, and with regulatory policy,” he said. “I think we need to let those policies be articulated before we can even begin to make a plausible assessment of what their implications for the economy will be.”

—Reuters contributed to this report.

Economics

Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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Production at the VW plant in Emden.

Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

Change in German government will deliver economic success, says CEO of German employers association

Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

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