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Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show

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WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting agreed to cut interest rates but were unsure how aggressive to get, ultimately deciding on a half percentage point move in an effort to balance confidence on inflation with worries over the labor market, according to minutes released Wednesday.

The meeting summary detailed reasons that policymakers decided to approve a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points for the first time in more than four years, and showed members divided over the economic outlook.

Some officials hoped for a smaller, quarter percentage point reduction as they sought assurance that inflation was moving sustainably lower and were less worried about the jobs picture.

Ultimately, only one Federal Open Market Committee member, Governor Michelle Bowman, voted against the half-point cut, saying she would have preferred a quarter point. But the minutes indicated that others also favored a smaller move. It was the first time a governor had dissented on an interest rate vote since 2005 for a Fed known for its unity on monetary policy.

“Some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes stated.

“Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved,” the document added. “A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.”

Markets moved little following the release, with major averages continuing on pace for big gains.

Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected.

In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000, much more than expected, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%.

The data has helped cement expectations that while the Fed likely is in the early days of an easing cycle, future cuts likely would not be as aggressive as the September move. Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials in recent days have backed the expected 50 basis points in reductions by the end of 2024 as indicated by the “dot plot” unofficial forecast released after the September meeting.

The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came “in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks” against the labor market. The minutes noted that “a substantial majority of participants” favored the larger move, without specifying how many were opposed. The term “participants” suggests involvement of the full FOMC rather than just the 12 voters.

The minutes also noted that some members favored a reduction at the July meeting that never materialized.

Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move.

At his post-meeting news conference, Powell used the term “recalibration” to sum up the decision to cut, and the term also appears in the minutes.

“Participants emphasized that it was important to communicate that the recalibration of the stance of policy at this meeting should not be interpreted as evidence of a less favorable economic outlook or as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments of the appropriate path,” the minutes stated.

Such a recalibration would bring policy “into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market.” Supporters of the 50 basis point cut “also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks.”

Under normal circumstances, the Fed prefers to cut in quarter-point increments. Previously, the central bank moved by half a point only during Covid and, before that, the 2008 financial crisis.

Market pricing is pointing to the fed funds rate ending 2025 in the 3.25%-3.5% range, about in line with the median projection of a 3.4% rate, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch. Futures markets previously had been indicating a more aggressive path and in fact now are pricing in about a 1-in-5 chance that the Fed does not cut at its Nov. 6-7 meeting.

The bond market, though, has been acting differently. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.

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Morgan Stanley picks China stocks to ride out a worst-case scenario in U.S. tensions

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Elon Musk endorses Trump’s transition co-chair Howard Lutnick for Treasury secretary

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Elon Musk at the tenth Breakthrough Prize ceremony held at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures on April 13, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.

The Hollywood Reporter | The Hollywood Reporter | Getty Images

On Saturday, Elon Musk shared who he is endorsing for Treasury secretary on X, a cabinet position President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce his preference to fill.

Musk wrote that Howard Lutnick, Trump-Vance transition co-chair and CEO and chairman of Cantor Fitzgerald, BGC Group and Newmark Group chairman, will “actually enact change.”

Lutnick and Key Square Group founder and CEO Scott Bessent are reportedly top picks to run the Treasury Department.

Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, also included his thoughts on Bessent in his post on X.

“My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice,” he wrote.

“Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt so we need change one way or another,” he added.

Musk also stated it would be “interesting to hear more people weigh in on this for @realDonaldTrump to consider feedback.”

Howard Lutnick, chairman and chief executive officer of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, left, and Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., during a campaign event with former US President Donald Trump, not pictured, at Madison Square Garden in New York, US, on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

In a statement to Politico, Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt made it clear that the president-elect has not made any decisions regarding the position of Treasury secretary.

“President-elect Trump is making decisions on who will serve in his second administration,” Leavitt said in a statement. “Those decisions will be announced when they are made.”

Both Lutnick and Bessent have close ties to Trump. Lutnick and Trump have known each other for decades, and the CEO has even hosted a fundraiser for the president-elect.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that Lutnick has already been helping Trump review candidates for cabinet positions in his administration.

On the other hand, Bessent was a key economic advisor to the president-elect during his 2024 campaign. Bessent also received an endorsement from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, according to Semafor.

“He’s from South Carolina, I know him well, he’s highly qualified,” Graham said.

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Protecting your portfolio against risks tied to Trump’s tariff plan

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Biggest Risks After the Rally: Trade & Top Valuations

Money manager John Davi is positioning for challenges tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.

Davi said he worries the new administration’s policies could be “very inflationary,” so he thinks it is important to choose investments carefully.

“Small-cap industrials make more sense than large-cap industrials,” the Astoria Portfolio Advisors CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

Davi, who is also the firm’s chief investment officer, expects the red sweep will help push a pro-growth, pro-domestic policy agenda forward that will benefit small caps.

It appears Wall Street agrees so far. Since the presidential election, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, is up around 4% as of Friday’s close.

Davi, whose firm has $1.9 billion in assets under management, also likes staying domestic despite the tariff risks.

“We’re overweight the U.S. I think that’s the right playbook in the next few years until the midterms,” added Davi. “We have two years of where he [Trump] can control a lot of the narrative.”

But Davi plans to stay away from fixed income due to challenges tied to the growing budget deficit.

“Be careful if you own bonds for sure,” said Davi.

Since the election, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is up 3% as of Friday’s close.

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