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Fed survey shows lows in employment and dissatisfaction with pay

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Job seekers attends the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena on June 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida. 

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

In another sign of cracks forming in the U.S. labor market, a New York Federal Reserve survey Monday showed a slide in people reporting they are employed, a surge in those looking for work and growing dissatisfaction with pay.

The thrice-yearly measure of labor activity, confidence and satisfaction reflected growing concern in July about job security and in increase in those expecting to work past typical retirement age. Workers are still looking for higher starting salaries but are getting lower offers.

The results come with the unemployment rate ticking higher and Wall Street and Fed policymakers watching the developments closely for clues about where things are headed for the U.S. economy.

Among the findings was that, of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data that goes back to 2014. Similarly, those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.

Moreover, the level of those searching for a new job in the previous four weeks popped to 28.4%, up 9 percentage points from a year ago and another historic high going back to March 2014.

On wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Satisfaction with benefits tumbled to 56.3%, off more than 8 points from a year ago, while satisfaction with opportunities for promotion slid to 44.2%, down from 53.5% last year and most pronounced among women, those without a college degree and respondents with household incomes less than $60,000.

The typical wage offering for full-time jobs in the past four months declined slightly to $68,905 while the average “reservation wage,” or the minimum level workers would accept for a new job rose to $81,147, up about $2,500 from a year ago but fractionally below the record high in the last survey.

Finally, the expected likelihood of working past age 62 nudged up to 48.3% of respondents and increased to 34.2% of those saying they expect to work past 67, an increase of more than 2 percentage points.

While the unemployment rate of 4.3% would be considered low by historical standards, it has been on the rise lately and spurring fears of a broader erosion in the economy. July saw a gain of just 114,000 in nonfarm payrolls, so the August report, to be released in early September, will be closely watched.

Following their most recent meeting, Fed officials described job growth as having “moderated.” The central bank is widely expected to reduce its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at their next meeting in September, the first move lower in more than four years.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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