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Fed survey shows lows in employment and dissatisfaction with pay

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Job seekers attends the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena on June 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida. 

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

In another sign of cracks forming in the U.S. labor market, a New York Federal Reserve survey Monday showed a slide in people reporting they are employed, a surge in those looking for work and growing dissatisfaction with pay.

The thrice-yearly measure of labor activity, confidence and satisfaction reflected growing concern in July about job security and in increase in those expecting to work past typical retirement age. Workers are still looking for higher starting salaries but are getting lower offers.

The results come with the unemployment rate ticking higher and Wall Street and Fed policymakers watching the developments closely for clues about where things are headed for the U.S. economy.

Among the findings was that, of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data that goes back to 2014. Similarly, those who expected to become unemployed rose to 4.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from a year ago and the highest in the survey’s history.

Moreover, the level of those searching for a new job in the previous four weeks popped to 28.4%, up 9 percentage points from a year ago and another historic high going back to March 2014.

On wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023. Satisfaction with benefits tumbled to 56.3%, off more than 8 points from a year ago, while satisfaction with opportunities for promotion slid to 44.2%, down from 53.5% last year and most pronounced among women, those without a college degree and respondents with household incomes less than $60,000.

The typical wage offering for full-time jobs in the past four months declined slightly to $68,905 while the average “reservation wage,” or the minimum level workers would accept for a new job rose to $81,147, up about $2,500 from a year ago but fractionally below the record high in the last survey.

Finally, the expected likelihood of working past age 62 nudged up to 48.3% of respondents and increased to 34.2% of those saying they expect to work past 67, an increase of more than 2 percentage points.

While the unemployment rate of 4.3% would be considered low by historical standards, it has been on the rise lately and spurring fears of a broader erosion in the economy. July saw a gain of just 114,000 in nonfarm payrolls, so the August report, to be released in early September, will be closely watched.

Following their most recent meeting, Fed officials described job growth as having “moderated.” The central bank is widely expected to reduce its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at their next meeting in September, the first move lower in more than four years.

Economics

Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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Economics

Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

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IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

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Economics

Harvard has more problems than Donald Trump

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A Programme at Harvard Divinity School aspired to “deZionize Jewish consciousness”. During “privilege trainings”, working-class Harvard students were instructed that, by being Jewish, they were oppressing wealthier, better prepared classmates. A course in Harvard’s graduate school of public health, “The Settler Colonial Determinants of Health”, sought to “interrogate the relationships between settler colonialism, Zionism, antisemitism, and other forms of racism”: Will these findings by Harvard’s task-force on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias, released on April 29th, shock anyone? Maybe not. Americans may be numb by now to bulletins about the excesses, not to say inanities, of some leftist academics.

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