Federal Reserve Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller pose for a photo, during a break at a conference on monetary policy at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, in Palo Alto, California, U.S. May 6, 2022. Picture taken May 6, 2022.
Ann Saphir | Reuters
The early departure of the Federal Reserve’s top financial regulator allows for a more industry-friendly official to take his place, the latest boon for U.S. banks riding a wave of post-election optimism.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Monday that he plans to step down from his role by next month to avoid a protracted legal battle with the Trump administration, which had weighed seeking his removal.
The announcement, a reversal from Barr’s previous comments on the matter, ends his supervisory role roughly 18 months earlier than planned. It also removes a possible impediment to Trump’s deregulatory agenda.
Banks and other financial stocks were among the big winners after the election of Donald Trump in November on speculation that softer regulation and increased deal activity, including mergers, were on the way. Weeks after his victory, Trump selected hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as his nominee for Treasury Secretary.
Trump has yet to name nominees for the three major bank regulatory agencies — the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Now, with Barr’s resignation, a more precise image of incoming bank regulation is forming.
Trump is limited to picking one of two Republican Fed governors for vice chair of supervision: Michelle Bowman or Christopher Waller.
Waller declined to comment, while Bowman didn’t immediately respond to request for comment.
Bowman, whose name had already appeared on short lists for possible Trump administration roles and is considered the frontrunner, has been a critic of Barr’s attempt to force American banks to hold more capital — a proposal known as Basel III Endgame.
“The regulatory approach we took failed to consider or deliver a reasonable proposal, one aligned with the original Basel agreement yet suited to the particulars of the U.S. banking system,” Bowman said in a November speech.
Bowman, a former community banker and Kansas bank commissioner, could take on “industry-friendly reforms” around a number of sore spots for banks, according to Alexandra Steinberg Barrage, a former FDIC executive and partner at Troutman Pepper Locke.
That includes what bank executives have called an opaque Fed stress test process, long turnaround times for merger approvals and what bankers have said are sometimes unfair confidential bank exams, Barrage said.
Easier ‘Endgame’?
When it comes to the Basel Endgame, first announced in July 2023 before a toned-down proposal was released last year, it’s now more likely that its ultimate form will be far gentler for the industry, versus versions that would’ve forced large banks to withhold tens of billions of dollars in capital.
Barr led the interagency effort to draft the sweeping Basel Endgame, whose initial version would’ve boosted capital requirements for the world’s largest banks by roughly 19%. Now, Barrage and others see a final version that is far less onerous.
“Barr’s replacement could still work with the other agencies to propose a new B3 Endgame rule, but we think such a proposal would be capital-neutral industry-wide,” Stifel analyst Brian Gardner said Monday in a note. “Bowman voted against the 2023 proposal, and we expect she would lead any B3 re-write in a different direction.”
If lenders ultimately beat back efforts to force them to hold more capital, that would enable them to boost share buybacks, among other possible uses for the money.
Bank stocks traded higher Monday after Barr’s announcement, with the KBW Bank Index rising as much as 2.4% during the session. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, which have both garnered headlines for regulatory matters last year, were among the day’s biggest gainers, each rising more than 2%.
Notably, Barr is not resigning from his role as one of seven Fed governors, which preserves the current 4-3 advantage of Democrat appointees on the Fed board, according to Klaros Group co-founder Brian Graham.
“Barr’s resignation of the vice chair role, while remaining a governor, is actually very clever,” Graham said. “It preserves the balance of power for board votes for a year or so, and it constrains the choices for his replacement to those currently serving on the board.”
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart,Costco,Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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Investors may want to reducetheir exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.
Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.
“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”
She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.
The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.
Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.
“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”
She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.
“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.
ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.
“If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.
In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Able for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger.