Connect with us

Economics

Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida sees possibility of fewer rate cuts than expected this year

Published

on


Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida: I hope the Fed 'really moves into data-dependent mode'

Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank’s former vice chair said Friday.

Richard Clarida, who served as Fed governor until January 2022 and is now a global economic advisor at asset management giant Pimco, said his former colleagues need to be on guard against sticky prices that could thwart plans to ease monetary policy this year.

At its meeting earlier this week, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicated it would likely decrease rates three times this year, assuming quarter percentage point intervals. Chair Jerome Powell said receding inflation and a strong economy give policymakers room to cut.

“This may be more of a hope than a forecast,” Clarida said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I do hope that the Fed really moves into data-dependent mode, because there can be a very good case if inflation is sticky and stubborn that they shouldn’t deliver three cuts this year.”

Markets also are expecting three cuts this year, though that pricing has been scaled back after data to start the year showed inflation higher than expected.

Fed officials are banking that elevated shelter inflation is on its way down, paving the way to lower their key borrowing rate from its highest level in more than 23 years. Clarida, however, said the extent to which the Fed can cut is unclear.

“Under a pretty broad range of scenarios, they’re going to get at least one cut in this year,” he said.

However, the calculus gets different as inflation data provides mixed signals.

The Fed prefers the Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, with a particular focus on the core reading that excludes food and energy. The headline 12-month PCE reading for January was 2.4% and core was at 2.8% — both above the Fed’s 2% goal but headed in the right direction.

However, the more commonly followed consumer price index in February was at 3.2% for headline and 3.8% for core, both well above the central bank target. Moreover, the Atlanta Fed’s measure of “sticky” inflation was at 4.4% on a 12-month basis and even higher, at 5%, on a three-month annualized basis, which marked the highest since April 2023.

“If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn’t even be discussing rate cuts,” Clarida said.

He also noted that even though Powell on Wednesday said financial conditions are tight, they in fact are “a lot easier than they were in November.” A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022.

“What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate,” Clarida said. “Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting. Then of course that improves the economic outlook and potentially makes it harder to get inflation down to 2” percent.

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:



Source link

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

Published

on

AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

Continue Reading

Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

Published

on

Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

Continue Reading

Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

Published

on

Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

Continue Reading

Trending