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French budget focuses on tax hikes as analysts warn of ratings downgrades

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France presents its 2025 budget

France’s newly-installed government on Thursday presented a draft budget containing 60 billion euros ($65.6 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts, as analysts warned the package may not be enough to stave off ratings downgrades for the economy.

The 2025 budget features a greater focus on tax-raising measures than some were expecting. Analysts also flagged “politically complicated” proposals such as a delay to an inflation adjustment for pensions, and cuts to local government, the civil service and the healthcare system.

Other key elements include temporary additional taxes on large shipping firms and corporations with revenue of more than a billion euros a year, impacting around 440 companies; an income tax surcharge on households with incomes over 500,000 euros; the reintroduction of a levy on electricity consumption; and an increase in taxes and charges on airline tickets and cars with high emissions.

One of the budget’s core aims is to reduce France’s projected 6.1% deficit for 2024 to 5% of gross domestic product next year — an effort to comply with European Union rules which state a member nation’s budget deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP.

The government set a new target of meeting this rule by 2029, an extension of its previous goal of 2027. It also warned the deficit could swell to 7% next year without action.

Political challenge

The task of finding 60 billion euros in a year left the government with few options, meaning it had to turn to those which are “politically complicated,” Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium and the euro zone at Natixis, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

The fragile French government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier has already faced one vote of no confidence this week, which it survived.

The government was formed last month after fraught negotiations in the wake of the July parliamentary election, which handed the most seats to the left-wing New Popular Front — itself a relatively divided alliance — but failed to deliver any party or coalition a majority.

France hoping to avoid a hit to economic growth with tax rises and spending cuts, economist says

In acknowledgement of this, Barnier characterized the draft budget as a starting point to be debated by lawmakers and said he was open to changes that maintain its fiscal integrity.

“There will be changes and there will be heated debate regarding pensions and social security contributions,” Camatte said, with debate over the budget set to kick off on Oct. 21 and votes on various portions of it from Oct. 29.

“The problem is when you have to find 60 billion, we have never found 60 billion in one year, it would be unprecedented, and that’s why it’s not very credible to find so huge an amount, especially with only a very fragile relative majority.”

Tax focus

The policy mix underpinning the 2025 budget is “less skewed towards spending cuts and more geared towards tax increases than we anticipated,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday.

“The magnitude of the proposed consolidation and the corresponding reliance on tax increases leave us less confident in the ability of the government to meet its 2025 deficit target of 5.0%. Our previous research has found that abrupt adjustments and tax-based consolidations tend to have a lower chance of succeeding in improving the fiscal position sustainably,” they wrote, noting their own deficit forecast was 5.2%.

However, they also flagged the potential for some near-term political stability given the government’s survival of the Oct. 8 no confidence vote.

French Minister for the Economy, Finance and Industry Antoine Armand arrives at the Elysee presidential palace to attend the weekly cabinet meeting, during which France’s 2025 budget was presented, on October 10, 2024 in Paris. 

Ludovic Marin | Afp | Getty Images

This means their base case is currently for the government to pass the budget bill by the end of the year, they said, but with greater uncertainty beyond that point.

“When you need fresh money very quickly, you don’t have any other option than increasing taxes. The problem is that tax is already very elevated in France,” Natixis’ Camatte told CNBC, noting the country has the second-highest wage taxation rate in Europe.

Despite an emphasis on tax hikes, the bill’s split should see government spending cut by 40 billion euros while revenues rise by 20 billion euros, according to Erik-Jan van Harn, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.

However, he added: “Barnier’s ambitious plans are fraught with implementation risks. His government commits until 2029 but isn’t very likely to survive until then.”

Ratings risk

Questions remain over what the 2025 budget will mean for France’s economic growth, and whether the country can avoid further credit downgrades on its sovereign debt, after cuts by agencies S&P and Fitch over the last two years.

The government has spread its measures to try to avoid harming economic growth, Evelyn Herrmann, Europe economist at Bank of America Global Research, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

“There is the hope is that by doing that and by going more into perhaps the upper income groups and the particularly profitable companies — and the promise to do that temporarily — perhaps you avoid a kind of typical strong effect on growth of these measures,” she continued.

However, the Goldman Sachs analysts estimate the impact of the package on economic growth will turn from a 0.3 percentage point boost in 2024 to a 0.5 percentage point drag in 2025 and 2026; while UBS said the historically large 2% of GDP fiscal consolidation would be “likely to hurt growth.”

Statistics agency Insee this week forecast 1.1% growth for the French economy this year, which Natixis’s Camatte described as “maybe a bit too optimistic, even if it’s not unrealistic.”

“My worry is for the trajectory beyond 2025, because measures to reduce the deficit beyond 2025 are undocumented and when you are doing debt sustainability analysis, the trajectory of France is clearly a risk,” he said.

In the near-term, ratings agencies would be in a wait-and-see mode given the lack of specific detail around the budget, he added, though a negative outlook from S&P or Fitch could not be ruled out.

“At this stage it’s more keep calm and let’s decide next year to see if the spending cuts are credible or not,” Camatte said. However, he expects agency Moody’s, which has maintained a better rating on France, to go into a negative outlook this year before downgrading next year.

Rabobank’s Van Harn was even more downbeat, arguing that sharp spending cuts would “put a lid on economic growth” and that “a rating downgrade by one of the major rating agencies seems likely.”

“Stark austerity has its price. Economic growth, which is already weak, will be hampered by a sharp turn in France’s fiscal stance. The government would do well to consider the economic side effects of their policy, but the lack of political capital risks that Barnier will be forced to make the wrong decisions,” he said Friday.

“Given the risks already highlighted by [Fitch] and the comparatively optimistic nature of its earlier projections, we see a rating downgrade as likely. While clearly not a positive from a spread perspective we believe that the market is already largely pricing for such a move.”

CNBC’s Charlotte Reed contributed to this story

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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