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The Federal Reserve may have pretty much just hit its 2% inflation target

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to a news conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC. 

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

This week’s inflation data provided more evidence that the Federal Reserve is nearing its objective, fresh on the heels of the central bank’s dramatic interest rate cut just a few weeks ago.

Consumer and producer price indexes for September both came in around expectations, showing that inflation is drifting down to the central bank’s 2% target.

In fact, economists at Goldman Sachs think the Fed may already be there.

The Wall Street investment bank on Friday projected that the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index for September will show a 12-month inflation rate of 2.04% when it is released later this month.

If Goldman is correct, that number would get rounded down to 2% and be right in line with the Fed’s long-held objective, a little over two years after inflation spiked to a 40-year high and unleashed an aggressive round of interest rate hikes. The Fed prefers the PCE as its inflation gauge though it uses a variety of inputs to make decisions.

“The overall trend over 12-, 18 months is clearly that inflation has come down a lot, and the job market has cooled to a level which is around where we think full employment is,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a CNBC interview Thursday after the latest consumer price data was released. “We’d like to get both of them to stay in the space where they are right now.”

Some obstacles ahead

While keeping inflation at bay may not be an easy task, the latest data indicate that though prices are not receding from their troublesome heights of a few years ago, the rate at which they are increasing is pulling back.

The 12-month rate for the all-items consumer price index was at 2.4% in September, while the producer price index, a proxy for wholesale inflation and a leading gauge for pipeline pressures, showed an annual rate of 1.8%.

Goldman’s projection that the PCE index is heading to 2% is also about in line with tracking from the Cleveland Fed.

The central bank district’s “inflation nowcasting” dashboard pegs the 12-month headline PCE rate at 2.06% for September, which would get rounded up to 2.1%. However, on an annualized pace, inflation for the entire third quarter is running at just a 1.4% rate — well below the Fed’s 2% goal.

To be sure, there are some caveats to show that policymakers still have some work to do.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy and is a metric that the Fed considers a better measure of longer-term trends, is expected to run at a 2.6% annual rate for the PCE in September, according to Goldman. Using just the consumer price index, core inflation was even worse in September, at 3.3%.

Fed officials, though, see the unexpectedly high shelter inflation numbers as a major driver of the core measure, which they figure will ease as a lower trend in rents works its way through the data.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week, addressing the rent situation, said he expects housing inflation to continue to recede while “broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”

From a policy standpoint, lower inflation opens the door for the Fed to keep cutting rates, particularly as it turns its attention to the labor market, though there’s some trepidation about how quickly it should move.

September’s half percentage point reduction to a fed funds range of 4.75% to 5% was unprecedented for an economy in expansion, and the Fed at the very least is expected to return to its normal quarter-point pace. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic even said Thursday he’d be open to skipping a move altogether at the November meeting.

“Aggressive easing would risk spiking consumer demand just as it is settling into a sustainable pace,” PNC senior economist Kurt Rankin said in a post-PPI analysis. “This result would in turn put pressure on businesses to meet that demand, re-igniting gains in those businesses’ own costs as they jockey for the necessary resources to do so.”

Futures traders, meanwhile, are betting on a near-certainty that the Fed cuts rates by a quarter point at both the November and December meetings.

Economics

UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

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UK Has a New Prime Minister Without a General Election

On July 20, Andy Burnham has been chosen to be the next Prime Minister in UK. The appointment of a new Prime Minister in the United Kingdom often raises questions from people outside the country, especially when no nationwide election has taken place. Many wonder how a new national leader can assume office without voters casting ballots. The answer lies in the UK’s parliamentary system, where the Prime Minister is not directly elected by the public but is instead chosen based on who commands the confidence of the House of Commons.

How the UK Selects Its Prime Minister

Unlike presidential systems where citizens vote directly for the head of government, the United Kingdom elects Members of Parliament (MPs) during a general election. The political party that secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons usually forms the government, and that party selects its own leader to serve as Prime Minister.

If the leader resigns, becomes unable to continue, or is replaced by their party, the governing party can choose a new leader without triggering a general election. As long as the new leader is able to maintain the confidence of Parliament, they can immediately become Prime Minister after being formally appointed by the monarch.

Why No Election Was Required

A general election is not automatically required every time the office of Prime Minister changes hands. The governing party retains its parliamentary majority because voters elected MPs rather than an individual Prime Minister. If the ruling party chooses a new leader through its internal leadership process, the government continues to operate without interruption.

This constitutional arrangement provides stability and allows the government to continue functioning during periods of political transition. It also avoids the expense and disruption of holding a nationwide election every time party leadership changes.

The King’s Constitutional Role

After a governing party elects a new leader, the monarch invites that individual to form a government. This constitutional step is largely ceremonial and follows long-established conventions. The King appoints the person most likely to command a majority in the House of Commons, ensuring continuity of government.

Although the monarch formally appoints the Prime Minister, political power rests with Parliament and the elected representatives of the British people.

Could an Election Still Happen?

Yes. A newly appointed Prime Minister has the authority to request a general election if they believe it is politically advantageous or if they seek a stronger public mandate. Parliament can also reach a point where a government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, potentially leading to an election or the formation of a new government.

In many cases, however, a new Prime Minister continues governing until the next scheduled general election.

What This Means for the UK

The UK’s parliamentary democracy is designed to ensure government continuity while respecting the results of the most recent general election. Leadership changes within the governing party do not automatically alter the composition of Parliament, which is why a new Prime Minister can take office without another nationwide vote.

Understanding this process helps explain why political transitions in the United Kingdom can appear different from those in countries with presidential systems. While the Prime Minister may change, the democratic mandate of Parliament remains in place until voters elect a new House of Commons at the next general election.

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Economics

Global Grid Upgrades Reshape Macro Economics

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Global grid upgrades reshape macro economics

On July 21, 2026, global economic analysis shifts focus toward a defining structural macroeconomic trend: the massive expansion of public and private capital deployment into high-capacity electrical grid infrastructure. As industrial electrification, automated data center hubs, and renewable energy integration accelerate worldwide, sovereign governments and institutional investors are facing a monumental economic challenge. Updating legacy power grids to meet skyrocketing demand has emerged as a primary driver of long-term capital expenditures and industrial productivity across both developed and emerging market economies.

According to international economic policy updates released this week, grid infrastructure investments are projected to exceed multi-trillion-dollar thresholds over the coming decade. Economic planners caution that without modernized, high-voltage transmission networks, regional manufacturing sectors face severe energy bottlenecks, localized power price volatility, and operational constraints. Consequently, infrastructure spending is rapidly transitioning from passive utility maintenance into a vital component of national economic competitiveness and industrial policy.

The macroeconomic ripple effects of this capital deployment are being felt across global commodity markets and labor networks. High demand for structural industrial inputs—such as copper, aluminum, specialized electrical steel, and high-capacity transformers—has created sustained pricing support for critical material producers. Simultaneously, the specialized technical labor required to manufacture and deploy modern grid hardware is driving wage growth in industrial sectors, adding a complex new layer to central bank disinflation trajectories.

For global policymakers and strategic investors, the economics of energy grid modernization represent a double-edged sword. While massive infrastructure investment boosts short-term gross domestic product (GDP) and strengthens domestic industrial foundations, it requires disciplined fiscal allocation to prevent inflationary crowding-out of private capital. Countries that efficiently streamline grid infrastructure permitting and mobilize private investment will secure lower long-term energy costs, attracting high-tech manufacturing and reinforcing sustainable economic growth.

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Economics

Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

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Global Trade Realignment and Supply Chains in 2026

The international trade architecture entering the second half of 2026 is undergoing a profound structural pivot. As major sovereign economic blocs adjust to the long-term impact of unilateral tariffs and escalating regional subsidies, traditional globalized supply chains are being rapidly replaced by bilateral trade corridors and regional alliance networks. Data released in late July 2026 highlights a significant divergence: while cross-continental freight volumes between non-aligned partners have cooled, intra-regional trade throughout North America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe has surged to record levels. This shift reflects a broader macroeconomic strategy wherein multinational corporations prioritize geopolitical resilience over pure cost minimization.

The primary economic catalyst behind this regionalization is the proliferation of sector-specific tariffs targeting critical industries, notably battery components, clean energy technology, and advanced semiconductor hardware. In response, global manufacturers have adopted multi-tier sourcing models that distribute production across intermediate partner nations before final assembly. While this strategy successfully bypasses primary import duties, it adds structural layers of logistical complexity and administrative oversight. Economists note that while total output remains robust, aggregate production costs have drifted upward, contributing to persistent baseline inflation across major consumer markets.

Simultaneously, currency settlement patterns within these regional blocs are experiencing a notable transformation. Sovereign central banks and commercial institutions are increasingly utilizing localized currency swap lines and digital clearing mechanisms to settle cross-border trade transactions. This transition reduces direct exposure to foreign exchange volatility and mitigates third-party liquidity constraints, further solidifying regional economic cohesion. However, for developing economies situated outside these primary trading alliances, the tightening of international trade networks presents severe challenges, restricting access to key export markets and foreign direct investment.

For corporate strategists and policy analysts navigating late 2026, success requires a thorough understanding of these emerging trade corridors. Organizations must conduct regular risk assessments of their multi-tier supplier networks, model tariff sensitivities under shifting geopolitical scenarios, and invest in real-time supply chain telemetry. As regional economic blocs strengthen their regulatory borders, supply chain agility and compliance fortitude will distinguish market leaders from vulnerable enterprises in the evolving global economy.

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