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Friday’s jobs report for August is going to be huge. Here’s what to expect

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Andreypopov | Istock | Getty Images

Wall Street is gearing up for one of the most important economic releases of the year Friday, when the Labor Department puts out a jobs report expected to go a long way in determining the future of Federal Reserve policy.

The Wall Street consensus is for nonfarm payrolls growth of 161,000 for August and a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, according to Dow Jones.

However, recent data, including a massive downward revision to previous counts, has pointed to a sharp slowdown in hiring and has put some downside risk to that forecast.

In turn, markets are certain the Fed will start lowering interest rates in a couple weeks, with the possibility of a jumbo cut depending on what Friday’s report shows.

“The labor market has cooled faster than we originally had been told, so that’s what’s calling [Friday’s report] into question,” said Giacomo Santangelo, economist at job search site Monster. “What the Fed is going to do in response, how are they going to adjust rates, that’s why we are having this conversation.”

While job growth has been tailing off through much of 2024, the deceleration hit home for the market with a July report that showed payroll growth of just 114,000. That wasn’t even the lowest number of the year, but it followed a Fed meeting that stirred up sentiment the central bank was being too complacent about a weakening economy and might hold interest rates high for too long.

What has followed has been a series of reports indicating that while the economy is still on its feet, hiring is decelerating, the manufacturing sector is fading further into contraction, and it’s time for the Fed to start cutting before it risks overdoing its inflation fight and dragging the economy into recession.

The latest bad news came Thursday when payrolls processing firm ADP put August private job growth at just 99,000, the smallest gain since January 2021.

Contemplating the Fed’s next move

“If they’re too aggressive for too long a period of time, without easing on monetary policy, this could lead to the giant ‘R’ and we don’t even want to say the word,” Santangelo said, referring to “recession.” “If God forbid this does lead to an economic downturn, all fingers are going to point toward the Fed.”

Markets consequently are expecting the Fed to lower benchmark rates by at least a quarter percentage point when its next meeting concludes Sept. 18, with the possibility rising of a half-point reduction. The Fed hasn’t reduced its benchmark rate by half a point since the emergency cuts during the early Covid days.

Traders are pricing in a succession of cuts that would shave about 2.25 percentage points off the fed funds rate through 2025, futures contracts show. The benchmark overnight borrowing rate is currently targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.

Such an aggressive easing posture would indicate not merely an effort to normalize rates from their 23-year high but also reflect a deeper economic pullback. In the more immediate term, though, the move lower would be targeted more at a labor market still feeling aftershocks from the Covid pandemic.

Monster job search data is still heavily tilted toward health care-related positions, which have flourished in the current era, while the most common search terms are “work from home,” “part time” and “remote,” reflecting the move to a hybrid environment.

Santangelo said there also is still a substantial skills gap in the labor market, despite a sharp narrowing in the gulf between open jobs and available workers, which has contracted to about 1.1 to 1 from 2 to 1 a couple years ago.

“The jobs that are being created are not necessarily suited for the people who are getting laid off. We still have a huge skills gap. The easiest place to see that is health care,” he said. “The No.1 thing that job seekers are looking for is more flexibility. There’s that kind of gap between employers and job seekers also.”

Worries from job seekers

Workers in turn are getting more pessimistic about the state of play in the labor market.

The Zeta Economic Index, which uses artificial intelligence to track various economic metrics, is showing that concerns about jobs are accelerating — even though the broader economy is still performing well.

A measure of job market sentiment fell 1% in August and is down 4.6% from a year ago, Zeta figures show. The gauge’s “new mover index” dropped 9.9% on the month, reflecting worries over job stability.

“Despite a resilient economy … job market concerns persist. The job sentiment dip, paired with the mixed bag of consumer behavior, signals an ongoing caution in the workforce,” said David Steinberg, co-founder and chairman of Zeta Global, which compiles the index. “As the economy shows signs of a ‘soft landing,’ the persistent caution regarding job stability continues to temper broader economic optimism.”

The Zeta data mirrors a recent Conference Board survey, which reflected a sharp narrowing of the gap between respondents saying jobs were easy to find as opposed to hard to get.

Markets also will be watching the wage component of Friday’s report, though that has become less of an issue lately as inflation has moderated.

The consensus is for average hourly earnings to post a 0.3% increase on the month and a 3.7% year-over-year move, both 0.1 percentage point higher than July.

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Economics

‘He should bring them down’

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U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Win McNamee | Annabelle Gordon | Reuters

President Donald Trump on Friday lobbed his latest criticism at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as the White House’s discontent for the economic policy leader hits a fever pitch.

During a Friday afternoon question-and-answer session with reporters, Trump pointed to examples of prices going down.

“If we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too,” Trump said. “He should bring them down.”

Trump has long argued that the Fed, which sets monetary policy in the U.S., should cut down interest rates. His latest comments come as the White House has ratcheted up its attacks on Powell in recent days.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Friday that Trump and his team are assessing whether they can remove the Fed chair. Powell has said previously that he cannot be fired under law and intends to serve through the end of his term as chair in May 2026.

“The president and his team will continue to study that matter,” Hassett said at the White House after a reporter questioned if firing Powell “is an option in a way that it wasn’t before,” according to Reuters.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.” His post included the nickname of “Too Late” for Powell, a continuation of Trump’s habit of giving satirical titles to political rivals.

His use of the word “termination” raised questions around if Trump was referring to Powell’s potential removal from his post ahead of schedule. Hassett said on Friday the administration will look at if there’s “new legal analysis” that would allow for Powell’s firing.

Powell appeared to irk Trump after saying Wednesday that the president’s contentious tariff plan could drive up inflation in the near-term and create challenges for the central bank in managing goals of high employment rates and price stability. Powell said Trump’s levies — many of which are currently on pause — are “likely to move us further away from our goals.”

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks before the Economic Club of Chicago. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

Powell also said that the Fed was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

The Federal Open Market Committee has its borrowing rate currently targeted in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, where it has sat since December. Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 90% likelihood that the central bank holds rates steady again at its policy meeting next month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

As Trump’s team has scaled up criticisms, some Democrats have gone on defense. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned on Thursday that a president firing the Fed chief would be dire for U.S. financial markets.

“Understand this: If Chairman Powell can be fired by the president of the United States, it will crash markets in the United States,” Warren said on CNBC.

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China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

China Beige Book CEO: U.S. needs to articulate what they want from China

Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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Economics

Donald Trump’s approval rating is dropping

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EVEN WHEN Donald Trump does something well, he exaggerates. He won the popular vote last November for the first time in three tries, by a 1.5 point margin. “The mandate was massive,” he told Time. In fact it was the slimmest margin since 2000, but it was an improvement on Mr Trump’s two previous popular-vote losses, by 2.1 points in 2016 and 4.5 points in 2020. (He was elected in 2016 through the vagaries of the Electoral College.)

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