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Georgia’s black Republicans have a battle plan for 2024

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On the last Sunday of Black History Month there was real energy in Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. Between gospel songs that made even your agnostic correspondent feel something spiritual, a trio of children reminded the congregation of the church’s political prominence. Martin Luther King junior was baptised there and preached there until he died. Over the years church members became lawmakers, and today a little girl told parishioners, with a grin, that Georgia’s first black senator is their pastor. Sitting behind her Raphael Warnock, one of two Peach State Democrats who helped flip control of the Senate in early 2021, reached out for a fist-bump as cheers erupted in the pews.

The night before a very different set of black Georgians had come together. In a converted downtown warehouse the Georgia Black Republican Council held its first-ever masquerade ball. Ranchers and representatives took to the stage to give Trumpian speeches. Women dressed in red sequinned gowns and fur stoles nibbled at fried chicken while chatting about their plans to get friends to break with tradition and vote Republican in November.

At roughly 30%, Georgia has the highest share of black voters of any battleground state. Over the past two decades an influx of black people into metro-Atlanta made Georgia the only Deep South state that Democrats can compete in. In 2020 Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win there since 1992. But with a Biden-Trump rematch looming, Democrats fear they are losing ground with their most loyal voting bloc.

In the decade to 2023 the share of black men who identified as Democrats fell from 80% to 62% nationwide. For women it dropped from 84% to 74%. Black youngsters are particularly unenthused about Mr Biden. Republicans in Georgia see an opportunity. The governor’s race in 2022 was the first time that both candidates actively chased black voters. Stacey Abrams spent $100m courting them while Brian Kemp, who ultimately beat her, deployed black surrogates, campaigned at black-owned businesses and stressed his record of appointing black judges. In December a group of Democratic strategists published a report warning that even the slightest drop in black turnout this year could hand Donald Trump a victory in the state.

Georgia’s black Republicans think three issues can sway their brethren: education, crime and immigration. Mesha Mainor, a state representative who left the Democratic Party in July to become a Republican, says that black pupils suffer disproportionately from failing public schools. Last year Atlanta’s white high-school graduation rate was 12 percentage points above the black one. On March 20th the state Senate passed a bill to give families $6,500 vouchers for private-school tuition. She thinks Republicans’ crusade for school choice should help them pick up voters of all political stripes.

Angry about the border

On crime black communities tend not to favour liberal policies—and Georgia Republicans plan to capitalise on that. For the past year Atlanta has been divided over a plan to build a $90m police-training facility dubbed “cop city” by protesters. Notably, a black councilwoman proposed it, the city’s black mayor has endorsed it and an Emory University survey from last year found that a minority of black residents opposed it. Jalen Johnson, a deputy sheriff and city commissioner in Albany, Georgia, says he can’t remember a single time he has delivered a death notification to a white family. Republican tough-on-crime policies, he says, resonate more when it’s always “black boys getting shot”. He notes that during Mr Trump’s presidency there was also real progress on prison reform.

Days after a Venezuelan immigrant was arrested for killing a nursing student in Athens in late February, Kelly Loeffler, who lost her Senate seat to Mr Warnock three years ago, convened a meeting at a renowned Atlanta soul-food restaurant. Over dinner black panellists spoke about how resentful they feel about Mr Biden’s policies towards people who cross the southern border illegally. Black Georgians have watched loved ones go to jail for dealing marijuana, one said, while migrants who break the law by sneaking into America walk free and are even rewarded with government and non-profit aid. They hope to drum up that same anger in black Democrats in this cycle.

The swing state’s black electorate still leans overwhelmingly left. But the young black Georgians who have converted to the conservative cause are bent on evangelising. A band of college women at the masquerade ball said they will no longer tolerate candidates taking their votes for granted. For some it was Ms Abrams, a prominent black Democrat who ran for Georgia’s governor twice, who taught them that they, too, have a voice in politics. When they thought about it, they realised they were being played by their party.

“A lot of times it started with a brother,” says Michaelah Montgomery, a 25-year-old who grew up during Barack Obama’s presidency and now runs the Atlanta chapter of an organisation called BLEXIT. “We all trusted him because he looked like us and spoke at our church.” But that is no longer enough. If there is one thing that she and the Democratic strategists worried about losing Georgia can agree on, it is that Mr Biden will have to spend bigger and work harder to get the black vote this year. The days of the token fish fry are over.

Economics

ADP jobs report March 2025:

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Attendees check in during a job fair at the YMCA Gerard Carter Center on March 27, 2025 in the Stapleton Heights neighborhood of the Staten Island borough in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Private payroll gains were stronger than expected in March, countering fears that the labor market and economy are slowing, according to a report Wednesday from ADP.

Companies added 155,000 jobs for the month, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 120,000, the payrolls processing firm said.

The upside surprise comes amid worries that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs could deter firms from adding to headcount and in turn slow business and consumer activity. Trump is set to announce the next step in his trade policy Wednesday at 4 p.m.

Hiring was fairly broad based, with professional and business services adding 57,000 workers while financial activities grew by 38,000 as tax season heats up. Manufacturing contributed 21,000 and leisure and hospitality added 17,000.

Service providers were responsible for 132,000 of the positions. On the downside, trade, transportation and utilities saw a loss of 6,000 jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3,000.

On the wage side, earnings rose by 4.6% year over year for those staying in their positions and 6.5% for job changers. The gap between the two matched a series low last hit in September, suggesting a lower level of mobility for workers wanting to switch jobs.

Still, the overall numbers indicate a solid labor market. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the level of open positions is now almost even with available workers, reversing a trend in which openings outnumbered the unemployed by 2 to 1 a couple years ago.

The ADP report comes ahead of the more closely watched BLS measure of nonfarm payrolls. The BLS report, which unlike ADP includes government jobs, is expected to show payroll growth of 140,000 in March, down slightly from 151,000 in February. The two counts sometimes show substantial disparities due to different methodologies.

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Economics

Trump tariffs’ effect on consumer prices debated by economists

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The U.S. government is set to increase tariff rates on several categories of imported products. Some economists tracking these trade proposals say the higher tariff rates could lead to higher consumer prices.

One model constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston suggests that in an “extreme” scenario, heightened taxes on U.S. imports could result in a 1.4 percentage point to 2.2 percentage point increase to core inflation. This scenario assumes 60% tariff rates on Chinese imports and 10% tariff rates on imports from all other countries.

The researchers note that many other tariff proposals have surfaced since they published their findings in February 2025. 

Price increases could come across many categories, including new housing and automobiles, alongside consumer services such as nursing, public transportation and finance. 

“People might think, ‘Oh, tariffs can only affect the goods that I buy. It can’t affect the services,'” said Hillary Stein, an economist at the Boston Fed. “Those hospitals are buying inputs that might be, for example, … medical equipment that comes from abroad.” 

White House economists say tariffs will not meaningfully contribute to inflation. In a statement to CNBC, Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that “as the world’s largest source of consumer demand, the U.S. holds all the leverage, which means foreign suppliers will have to eat the economic burden or ‘incidence’ of the tariffs.” 

Assessing the impact of the administration’s full economic agenda has been a challenge for central bank leaders. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at the meeting in March. 

The Fed targets its overnight borrowing rate at between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the effective federal funds rate at 4.33% on March 31, according to the New York Fed. The core personal consumption expenditures price index inflation rate rose to 2.8% in February, according to the Commerce Department. Forecasts of U.S. gross domestic product suggest that the economy will continue to grow at a 1.7% rate in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than what was forecast in January.  

Consumers in the U.S. and businesses around the world are bracing for impact. 
 
“There is a reason why companies went outside of the U.S.,” said Gregor Hirt, chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors. “Most of the time it was because it was cheaper and more productive.” 

Watch the video above to learn how much inflation tariffs may cause.

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Economics

Trump’s tariff gambit will raise the stakes for an economy already looking fragile

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks alongside entertainer Kid Rock before signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House on March 31, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

President Donald Trump is set Wednesday to begin the biggest gamble of his nascent second term, wagering that broad-based tariffs on imports will jumpstart a new era for the U.S. economy.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

As the president prepares his “liberation day” announcement, household sentiment is at multi-year lows. Consumers worry that the duties will spark another round of painful inflation, and investors are fretting that higher prices will mean lower profits and a tougher slog for the battered stock market.

What Trump is promising is a new economy not dependent on deficit spending, where Canada, Mexico, China and Europe no longer take advantage of the U.S. consumer’s desire for ever-cheaper products.

The big problem right now is no one outside the administration knows quite how those goals will be achieved, and what will be the price to pay.

“People always want everything to be done immediately and have to know exactly what’s going on,” said Joseph LaVorgna, who served as a senior economic advisor during Trump’s first term in office. “Negotiations themselves don’t work that way. Good things take time.”

For his part, LaVorgna, who is now chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, is optimistic Trump can pull it off, but understands why markets are rattled by the uncertainty of it all.

“This is a negotiation, and it needs to be judged in the fullness of time,” he said. “Eventually we’re going to get some details and some clarity, and to me, everything will fit together. But right now, we’re at that point where it’s just too soon to know exactly what the implementation is likely to look like.”

Here’s what we do know: The White House intends to implement “reciprocal” tariffs against its trading partners. In other words, the U.S. is going to match what other countries charge to import American goods into their countries. Most recently, a figure of 20% blanket tariffs has been bandied around, though LaVorgna said he expects the number to be around 10%, but something like 60% for China.

What is likely to emerge, though, will be far more nuanced as Trump seeks to reduce a record $131.4 billion U.S. trade deficit. Trump professes his ability to make deals, and the saber-rattling of draconian levies on other countries is all part of the strategy to get the best arrangement possible where more goods are manufactured domestically, boosting American jobs and providing a fairer landscape for trade.

The consequences, though, could be rough in the near term.

Potential inflation impact

On their surface, tariffs are a tax on imports and, theoretically, are inflationary. In practice, though, it doesn’t always work that way.

During his first term, Trump imposed heavy tariffs with nary a sign of longer-term inflation outside of isolated price increases. That’s how Federal Reserve economists generally view tariffs — a one-time “transitory” blip but rarely a generator of fundamental inflation.

This time, though, could be different as Trump attempts something on a scale not seen since the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs in 1930 that kicked off a global trade war and would be the worst-case scenario of the president’s ambitions.

“This could be a major rewiring of the domestic economy and of the global economy, a la Thatcher, a la Reagan, where you get a more enabled private sector, streamlined government, a fair trading system,” Mohamed El-Erian, the Allianz chief economic advisor, said Tuesday on CNBC. “Alternatively, if we get tit-for-tat tariffs, we slip into stagflation, and that stagflation becomes well anchored, and that becomes problematic.”

Tariffs could be a major rewiring of the domestic and global economy, says Mohamed El-Erian

The U.S. economy already is showing signs of a stagflationary impulse, perhaps not along the lines of the 1970s and early ’80s but nevertheless one where growth is slowing and inflation is proving stickier than expected.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its projection for economic growth this year to barely positive. The firm is citing the “the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence” and second-order impacts of tariffs as administration officials are willing to trade lower growth in the near term for their longer-term trade goals.

Federal Reserve officials last month indicated an expectation of 1.7% gross domestic product growth this year; using the same metric, Goldman projects GDP to rise at just a 1% rate.

In addition, Goldman raised its recession risk to 35% this year, though it sees growth holding positive in the most-likely scenario.

Broader economic questions

However, Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, thinks the recession risk is even higher at 40%, and not just because of tariff impacts.

“We were already on the pessimistic side of the spectrum,” he said. “A lot of that is coming from the fact that we didn’t think the consumer was strong enough heading into the year, and we see growth slowing because of the tariffs.”

Tilley also sees the labor market weakening as companies hold off on hiring as well as other decisions such as capital expenditure-type investments in their businesses.

That view on business hesitation was backed up Tuesday in an Institute for Supply Management survey in which respondents cited the uncertain climate as an obstacle to growth.

“Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs,” said a manager in the transportation equipment industry. “There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it’s harder to project how they will affect business.”

While Tilley thinks the concern over tariffs causing long-term inflation is misplaced — Smoot-Hawley, for instance, actually ended up being deflationary — he does see them as a danger to an already-fragile consumer and economy as they could tend to weaken activity further.

“We think of the tariffs as just being such a weight on growth. It would drive up prices in the initial couple [inflation] readings, but it would create so much economic weakness that they would end up being net deflationary,” he said. “They’re a tax hike, they’re contractionary, they’re going to weigh on the economy.”

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