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Georgia’s black Republicans have a battle plan for 2024

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On the last Sunday of Black History Month there was real energy in Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. Between gospel songs that made even your agnostic correspondent feel something spiritual, a trio of children reminded the congregation of the church’s political prominence. Martin Luther King junior was baptised there and preached there until he died. Over the years church members became lawmakers, and today a little girl told parishioners, with a grin, that Georgia’s first black senator is their pastor. Sitting behind her Raphael Warnock, one of two Peach State Democrats who helped flip control of the Senate in early 2021, reached out for a fist-bump as cheers erupted in the pews.

The night before a very different set of black Georgians had come together. In a converted downtown warehouse the Georgia Black Republican Council held its first-ever masquerade ball. Ranchers and representatives took to the stage to give Trumpian speeches. Women dressed in red sequinned gowns and fur stoles nibbled at fried chicken while chatting about their plans to get friends to break with tradition and vote Republican in November.

At roughly 30%, Georgia has the highest share of black voters of any battleground state. Over the past two decades an influx of black people into metro-Atlanta made Georgia the only Deep South state that Democrats can compete in. In 2020 Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win there since 1992. But with a Biden-Trump rematch looming, Democrats fear they are losing ground with their most loyal voting bloc.

In the decade to 2023 the share of black men who identified as Democrats fell from 80% to 62% nationwide. For women it dropped from 84% to 74%. Black youngsters are particularly unenthused about Mr Biden. Republicans in Georgia see an opportunity. The governor’s race in 2022 was the first time that both candidates actively chased black voters. Stacey Abrams spent $100m courting them while Brian Kemp, who ultimately beat her, deployed black surrogates, campaigned at black-owned businesses and stressed his record of appointing black judges. In December a group of Democratic strategists published a report warning that even the slightest drop in black turnout this year could hand Donald Trump a victory in the state.

Georgia’s black Republicans think three issues can sway their brethren: education, crime and immigration. Mesha Mainor, a state representative who left the Democratic Party in July to become a Republican, says that black pupils suffer disproportionately from failing public schools. Last year Atlanta’s white high-school graduation rate was 12 percentage points above the black one. On March 20th the state Senate passed a bill to give families $6,500 vouchers for private-school tuition. She thinks Republicans’ crusade for school choice should help them pick up voters of all political stripes.

Angry about the border

On crime black communities tend not to favour liberal policies—and Georgia Republicans plan to capitalise on that. For the past year Atlanta has been divided over a plan to build a $90m police-training facility dubbed “cop city” by protesters. Notably, a black councilwoman proposed it, the city’s black mayor has endorsed it and an Emory University survey from last year found that a minority of black residents opposed it. Jalen Johnson, a deputy sheriff and city commissioner in Albany, Georgia, says he can’t remember a single time he has delivered a death notification to a white family. Republican tough-on-crime policies, he says, resonate more when it’s always “black boys getting shot”. He notes that during Mr Trump’s presidency there was also real progress on prison reform.

Days after a Venezuelan immigrant was arrested for killing a nursing student in Athens in late February, Kelly Loeffler, who lost her Senate seat to Mr Warnock three years ago, convened a meeting at a renowned Atlanta soul-food restaurant. Over dinner black panellists spoke about how resentful they feel about Mr Biden’s policies towards people who cross the southern border illegally. Black Georgians have watched loved ones go to jail for dealing marijuana, one said, while migrants who break the law by sneaking into America walk free and are even rewarded with government and non-profit aid. They hope to drum up that same anger in black Democrats in this cycle.

The swing state’s black electorate still leans overwhelmingly left. But the young black Georgians who have converted to the conservative cause are bent on evangelising. A band of college women at the masquerade ball said they will no longer tolerate candidates taking their votes for granted. For some it was Ms Abrams, a prominent black Democrat who ran for Georgia’s governor twice, who taught them that they, too, have a voice in politics. When they thought about it, they realised they were being played by their party.

“A lot of times it started with a brother,” says Michaelah Montgomery, a 25-year-old who grew up during Barack Obama’s presidency and now runs the Atlanta chapter of an organisation called BLEXIT. “We all trusted him because he looked like us and spoke at our church.” But that is no longer enough. If there is one thing that she and the Democratic strategists worried about losing Georgia can agree on, it is that Mr Biden will have to spend bigger and work harder to get the black vote this year. The days of the token fish fry are over.

Economics

EC President von der Leyen

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The European Union is preparing further countermeasures against U.S. tariffs if negotiations fail, according to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed 20% tariffs on the bloc on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen’s comments come after retaliatory duties were announced by the bloc after the U.S. imposed tariffs on  last month in a bid to protect European workers and consumers. The EU at the time said it would introduce counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods.

Previously suspended duties — which were at least partially in place during Trump’s first term as president — are set to be re-introduced alongside a slew of additional duties on further goods.

Industrial-grade steel and aluminum, other steel and aluminum semi-finished and finished products, along with their derivative commercial products, such as machinery parts and knitting needles were set to be included. A range of other products such as bourbon, agricultural products, leather goods, home appliances and more were also on the EU’s list.

Following a postponement, these tariffs are expected to come into effect around the middle of April.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

ADP jobs report March 2025:

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Attendees check in during a job fair at the YMCA Gerard Carter Center on March 27, 2025 in the Stapleton Heights neighborhood of the Staten Island borough in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Private payroll gains were stronger than expected in March, countering fears that the labor market and economy are slowing, according to a report Wednesday from ADP.

Companies added 155,000 jobs for the month, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 120,000, the payrolls processing firm said.

The upside surprise comes amid worries that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs could deter firms from adding to headcount and in turn slow business and consumer activity. Trump is set to announce the next step in his trade policy Wednesday at 4 p.m.

Hiring was fairly broad based, with professional and business services adding 57,000 workers while financial activities grew by 38,000 as tax season heats up. Manufacturing contributed 21,000 and leisure and hospitality added 17,000.

Service providers were responsible for 132,000 of the positions. On the downside, trade, transportation and utilities saw a loss of 6,000 jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3,000.

On the wage side, earnings rose by 4.6% year over year for those staying in their positions and 6.5% for job changers. The gap between the two matched a series low last hit in September, suggesting a lower level of mobility for workers wanting to switch jobs.

Still, the overall numbers indicate a solid labor market. Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the level of open positions is now almost even with available workers, reversing a trend in which openings outnumbered the unemployed by 2 to 1 a couple years ago.

The ADP report comes ahead of the more closely watched BLS measure of nonfarm payrolls. The BLS report, which unlike ADP includes government jobs, is expected to show payroll growth of 140,000 in March, down slightly from 151,000 in February. The two counts sometimes show substantial disparities due to different methodologies.

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Economics

Trump tariffs’ effect on consumer prices debated by economists

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The U.S. government is set to increase tariff rates on several categories of imported products. Some economists tracking these trade proposals say the higher tariff rates could lead to higher consumer prices.

One model constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston suggests that in an “extreme” scenario, heightened taxes on U.S. imports could result in a 1.4 percentage point to 2.2 percentage point increase to core inflation. This scenario assumes 60% tariff rates on Chinese imports and 10% tariff rates on imports from all other countries.

The researchers note that many other tariff proposals have surfaced since they published their findings in February 2025. 

Price increases could come across many categories, including new housing and automobiles, alongside consumer services such as nursing, public transportation and finance. 

“People might think, ‘Oh, tariffs can only affect the goods that I buy. It can’t affect the services,'” said Hillary Stein, an economist at the Boston Fed. “Those hospitals are buying inputs that might be, for example, … medical equipment that comes from abroad.” 

White House economists say tariffs will not meaningfully contribute to inflation. In a statement to CNBC, Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that “as the world’s largest source of consumer demand, the U.S. holds all the leverage, which means foreign suppliers will have to eat the economic burden or ‘incidence’ of the tariffs.” 

Assessing the impact of the administration’s full economic agenda has been a challenge for central bank leaders. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at the meeting in March. 

The Fed targets its overnight borrowing rate at between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the effective federal funds rate at 4.33% on March 31, according to the New York Fed. The core personal consumption expenditures price index inflation rate rose to 2.8% in February, according to the Commerce Department. Forecasts of U.S. gross domestic product suggest that the economy will continue to grow at a 1.7% rate in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than what was forecast in January.  

Consumers in the U.S. and businesses around the world are bracing for impact. 
 
“There is a reason why companies went outside of the U.S.,” said Gregor Hirt, chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors. “Most of the time it was because it was cheaper and more productive.” 

Watch the video above to learn how much inflation tariffs may cause.

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