TEGERNSEE, GERMANY — Top German business leaders, economists and politicians descended onto a small, picturesque Bavarian town situated next to the iconic Tegernsee lake last week to share their hopes and discuss what’s at stake for the new government.
Buoyed by recent positive market sentiment for Europe’s largest economy, attendees at the summit were united in their call for the new administration to step up and honour campaign promises. Any missteps would likely not be tolerated, with some business leaders warning the government cannot allow itself a “lazy summer.”
Despite rain and low hanging clouds providing a somewhat dreary backdrop to the event, which has been dubbed the “Davos of Germany,” the promise of new beginnings enveloped the summit and the atmosphere was buzzing with excitement for potential changes the newly-appointed Chancellor Friedrich Merz could initiate.
The view across the Tegernsee from the Ludwig Erhard Summit
Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC
Big expectations for the government were commonplace, with concerns about Germany’s struggling economy and recent political turmoil seemingly having faded into the background.
The German DAX index is currently up over 18% since the beginning of this year, frequently hitting record highs in recent months. The German economy has however been in stagnation territory for over two years now, with tensions over economic, fiscal and budget policy in the previous ruling coalition and its eventual breakup continuing to weigh on expectations.
“There are very high hopes now on the new government,” Patrick Trutwein, chief risk officer and chief operating officer at the IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said during a panel moderated by CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.
He said he was feeling positive about Germany’s future considering the announcement of the major fiscal package enshrined in Germany’s constitution, as well as further potential reforms ahead and “an economy that’s pretty robust and can build on its own … productivity and competencies.”
Matthias Voelkel, CEO of Boerse Stuttgart Group, was among those feeling hopeful.
“If we look ahead and if they [the new government] do the right thing, I’m optimistic,” he told CNBC.
Audi CEO Gernot Döllner meanwhile said in a fireside chat that he was hopeful that the new government would “send an impulse into the German economy.”
The mood was also upbeat in Germany’s auto sector, which has long been struggling with competition from China, pressures from the transition to electric vehicles and has recently been hit by U.S. tariffs.
“The Germans are back,” Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, told CNBC’s Weisbach Friday. “We are competitive,” she added.
A talk at the Ludwig Erhard Summit.
Sophie Kiderlin, CNBC
But amid the positive buzz, it was clear that observers are keeping a close eye on the governments every move.
“This new government in Germany cannot allow itself a political lazy summer, I’m sorry, they’ve got to work and they’ve got to work hard,” said Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, chairman of Spitzberg Partners and former German politician.
Or as Veronika Grimm, member of the German Council of Economic Experts, told CNBC: “A lot lies ahead for the government.”
Overal the message was clear: Germany needs to get its act together.
Alexander Horn, general manager of Eli Lilly‘s Germany arm — Lilly Germany — said the business strongly welcomes the new government’s goals, but won’t tolerate any caveats.
“Specifically we expect that the declarations of intent that are in the coalition agreement will be implemented quickly, speed plays an enormously big role,” he said during a panel, according to a CNBC translation.
Boerse Stuttgart Group’s Voelkel indicated his optimism relied on action from the government, saying he was looking for moves towards “less bureaucracy, less anti-growth regulation, more innovation and particularly strengthening investment.”
The newly minted German government has set itself many of these points as policy goals, making promises to boost the country’s economy, reduce bureaucracy and boost innovation and investment during the election campaign and in its coalition agreement.
“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this,” German economy minister Katherina Reiche told CNBC on the sidelines of the summit.
A woman walks in an aisle of a Walmart supermarket in Houston, Texas, on May 15, 2025.
Ronaldo Schemidt | Afp | Getty Images
U.S. consumers are becoming increasingly worried that tariffs will lead to higher inflation, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.
The index of consumer sentiment dropped to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April, in the preliminary reading for May. That is the second-lowest reading on record, behind June 2022.
The outlook for price changes also moved in the wrong direction. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 7.3% from 6.5% last month, while long-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%.
However, the majority of the survey was completed before the U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs between the two countries. The trade situation appears to be a key factor weighing on consumer sentiment.
“Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy,” Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said in the release.
Inflation expectations are closely watched by investors and policymakers. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank wants to make sure long-term inflation expectations do not rise because of tariffs before resuming rate cuts.
A final consumer sentiment index for the month is slated to be released on May 30, and will likely be closely watched to see if the tariff pause led to an improvement in sentiment.
This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks during the 2025 National Retirement Summit in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, March 12, 2025.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Wall Street titan Jamie Dimon said Thursday that a recession is still a serious possibility for the United States, even after the recent rollback of tariffs on China.
“If there’s a recession, I don’t know how big it will be or how long it will last. Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” the JPMorgan Chase CEO said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Specifically, Dimon said he would defer to his bank’s economists, who put recession odds at close to a toss-up. Michael Feroli, the firm’s chief U.S. economist, said in a note to clients on Tuesday that the recession outlook is “still elevated, but now below 50%.”
Dimon’s comments come less than a week after the U.S. and China announced that they were sharply reducing tariffs on one another for 90 days. The U.S. has also implemented a 90-day pause for many tariffs on other nations.
Thursday’s comments mark a change for Dimon, who said last month before the China truce that a recession was likely.
He also said there is still “uncertainty” on the tariff front but the pauses are a positive for the economy and market.
“I think the right thing to do is to back off some of that stuff and engage in conversation,” Dimon said.
However, even with the tariff pauses, the import taxes on goods entering the United States are now sharply higher than they were last year and could cause economic damage, according to Dimon.
“Even at this level, you see people holding back on investment and thinking through what they want to do,” Dimon said.
Pope Benedict XVI held a synod in 2012 to discuss evangelisation in an increasingly secular world. One of the most dynamic speakers was an American priest named Robert Prevost. The then-leader of the Augustinian order delivered a brief but profoundly countercultural speech, criticising “Western mass media” for fostering sympathy with anti-Christian practices like “abortion, homosexual lifestyle, euthanasia”. With time the future pope evolved. “Doctrine hasn’t changed,” he told Catholic News Service after Pope Francis made him a cardinal in 2023. “But we are looking to be more welcoming and more open.”