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Hedge funds performed better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones, history shows

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. 

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There’s been a rush of enthusiasm on Wall Street regarding Donald Trump’s election win, but hedge funds actually generate more alpha when the White House is occupied by a Democrat president than a Republican one, according to HFR, collating data going back to 1991.

When compared with the S&P 500, the industry underperformed regardless of who was president. But during Democratic administrations, the gap was about 183 basis points, with hedge funds delivering average, annualized returns of 10.16%, compared to 11.99% from the S&P 500. The underperformance gap during Republican administrations was 331 basis points. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

When compared with the a bond index, HFR found that hedge funds under both parties outperformed – with stronger alpha when a Democrat was in the White House.

The total net asset flows were higher under Republican administrations (about $450 billion) than Democratic ones (about $400 billion), even though since 1991, Democrats served six more years in the highest office than Republicans.

Surprisingly, the way that hedge fund participants donate in elections was a bit more tilted toward one party. According to a recent report by Open Secrets, in the 2024 election cycle, individuals in the industry donated $31 million to Democratic candidates, while almost half that amount — $16 million — went to Republican candidates.

Of course the takeaway here is that hedge fund returns are far more correlated with positioning relative to various asset-class performances than particular policies by the administration. So, it’s hard to make any predictions about what the next four years entails for the industry.

At Wednesday’s 14th annual Delivering Alpha event, we should get a sense as to how money managers may be reconfiguring their portfolios.

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Insiders at UnitedHealth are scooping up tarnished shares

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Key Points

  • UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
  • Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
  • Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.

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Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says

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U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on January 30, 2024.

Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve will look to reduce its headcount by 10% over the next couple of years, including offering deferred resignation to some older employees, central bank chair Jerome Powell said in a memo.

“Experience here and elsewhere shows that it is healthy for any organization to periodically take a fresh look at its staffing and resources. The Fed has done that from time to time as our work, priorities, or external environment have changed,” Powell said in a memo obtained by CNBC.

The central bank chief added that he has instructed leaders throughout the Fed “to find incremental ways to consolidate functions where appropriate, modernize some business practices, and ensure that we are right-sized and able to meet our statutory mission.” One method for shrinking the staff will be to offer a voluntary deferred resignation program to employees of the Federal Reserve Board who would be fully eligible to retire at the end of 2027.

The central bank said in its 2023 annual report that it had just under 24,000 employees. A 10% reduction would bring that number below 22,000.

The memo comes as the Trump administration has pushed for cost cuts across civil service agencies, spearheaded by Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Musk has previously called the Fed “absurdly overstaffed.” Powell’s memo did not mention Musk or DOGE as a factor in the decision to shrink headcount.

The planned staff cuts were first reported by Bloomberg News.

— CNBC’s Matt Cuddy contributed reporting.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: AMAT, NVO, CAVA, VST

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