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Here’s the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart

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D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

Inflation cooled in August and fell to its lowest level since February 2021, which was around the time the consumer price index began to climb during the pandemic era.

This broad trend in the U.S. economy — a declining but still-positive rate of inflation — is known as “disinflation.” It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly.

However, there are also pockets of “deflation.” Their inflation rate is negative, meaning prices are falling.

Deflation has largely been happening for physical goods like cars and household appliances, though it has also appeared in categories such as gasoline and various groceries over the past year, according to the consumer price index.

That said, consumers shouldn’t expect — or root for — a broad and sustained fall in prices across the U.S. economy. That generally doesn’t happen unless there’s a recession, economists said.

‘A huge shift in demand’

Prices for “core” goods — commodities excluding those related to food and energy — have deflated by about 2% since August 2023, on average, according to CPI data.

They fell 0.2% during the month, from July to August 2024.

Mortgage rates drop on CPI data

The dynamic of falling goods prices has largely been due to a “normalization” of pre-pandemic supply-and-demand trends, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

Demand for physical goods soared in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers were confined to their homes and couldn’t spend on things such as concerts, travel or dining out. Household also had more discretionary income due to the pullback on spending coupled with federal aid.

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“We saw a huge shift in demand, in terms of the type of things people were spending on, where you weren’t going out as much,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.

The health crisis also snarled global supply chains, meaning goods weren’t hitting the shelves as quickly as consumers wanted them.

Such supply-and-demand dynamics drove up prices.

However, those economic contortions have largely eased and prices have deflated as a result, economists said.

Where prices have deflated

For example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data.

They’ve also fallen for tools, hardware and outdoor equipment (-3%), toys (-3%) and apparel like men’s suits and outerwear (-10%), women’s outerwear (-9%) and footwear (-1%).

Prices for new and used vehicles have fallen by 1% and 10%, respectively, since August 2023. Car and truck rental prices have deflated about 8%.

Car prices were among the first to surge when the economy reopened broadly early in 2021, amid a shortage of semiconductor chips essential for manufacturing.

Recent declines in car prices are largely due to “the inventory picture being more improved in the overall vehicle space,” House said. Higher financing costs have also reduced consumer demand, economists said.

Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar’s strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import items from overseas, since the dollar can buy more.

Long-term forces such as globalization have also helped, by increasing imports of more lower-priced goods from China, economists said.

Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data.

The drop is partly attributable to a decline in jet fuel prices, Capital Economics’ Brown explained.

Average aviation jet fuel prices are down about 21% from last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data. Each grocery item has its own supply-and-demand dynamics that can influence pricing, economists said.

Other categories’ deflationary dynamics may be happening only on paper.

For example, in the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics controls for quality improvements over time. Electronics such as televisions, cellphones and computers continually get better, meaning consumers generally get more for the same amount of money.

That shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.

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Personal Finance

Lenders pull incorrect amounts from student loan borrowers’ accounts

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Lenders often encourage federal student loan borrowers to enroll in automatic payments. It can seem like a good idea to do so: Borrowers don’t need to worry about missing a payment and often get a slightly lower interest rate in exchange.

However, the decision can backfire in a lending space plagued by consumer abuses, according to a new report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“Unfortunately, autopay errors were one of the most widespread, basic and consequential servicer errors we saw this year,” CFPB Student Loan Ombudsman Julia Barnard told CNBC. “These errors are incredibly costly and completely unacceptable.”

In some cases, borrowers had money pulled from their bank accounts despite never consenting to autopay, Barnard said. Other autopay users saw incorrect amounts taken or were charged multiple times in the same month.

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CNBC wrote last year about a woman who was supposed to have a $0 monthly student loan payment under the plan she was enrolled in, but was charged $2,074 one month. After that unexpected debit, she worried she wouldn’t be able to pay her mortgage.

In March, one borrower told the CFPB that their student loan servicer took $6,897 from their account when they only owed $1,048.

“Borrowers have told the CFPB that these errors have made it hard or impossible for them to cover basic needs like food, medical care and rent,” Barnard said.

What borrowers can do about autopay errors

Despite the issues some student loan borrowers experience, higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz recommends that people remain enrolled in the automatic payments.

After all, it’s one of the only ways to get an interest rate discount, he said. The savings is typically 0.25%.

In addition, he said, “they are less likely to be late with a payment.”

But some borrowers on a tight budget may prefer to forgo those benefits to make sure they’re not overcharged, experts said.

There are steps you can take to protect yourself from incorrect billing, Kantrowitz said.

You can set up an alert with your bank and get notified whenever a debit occurs over a certain amount. If you set that amount a little under what your student loan bill should be, you can use that alert to check that the debit was correct each month and also have a record of your payment history, which can be especially helpful to those working toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said.

If your loan service takes the wrong amount from your bank account, you should immediately contact the servicer and demand a refund, Kantrowitz said. You should also ask your servicer to cover any late fees from bounced checks or an overdraft, he said.

Unfortunately, Barnard says, the CFPB has heard from borrowers who weren’t able to get a timely refund.

“We’ve seen instances where borrowers have waited months or even years to receive a refund related to autopay errors,” she said.

As a result, she also suggests borrowers reach out to their bank about the incorrect payment.

“The borrowers’ financial institution may be able to quickly resolve errors in autopay amounts,” she said, so long as the borrower notifies them within 10 business days of the amount being debited.

If you run into a wall with your servicer, you can file a complaint with the Education Department’s feedback system at Studentaid.gov/feedback. Problems can also be reported to the Federal Student Aid’s Ombudsman, Kantrowitz said.

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Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024.

Allison Robbert | Via Reuters

Congressional lawmakers will soon debate expiring tax breaks and new promises from President-elect Donald Trump.

Agreeing on cuts and spending, however, could be a challenge.

With a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, Republican lawmakers can pass sweeping tax legislation through “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster. Republicans could begin the budget reconciliation process during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

But choosing priorities could be difficult, particularly amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts said Tuesday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Legislators will be “representing their districts, not their party,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said Tuesday in a panel discussion at the Brookings event.

“This is a lot more complicated than just the reds against the blues,” he said.

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‘Political divisions’ could be a barrier

With a slim majority in Congress, Republican lawmakers will soon negotiate with several blocks within their party. Some of these groups have competing priorities.

Enacted by Trump in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, is a key priority for the next administration.

Without action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks from the TCJA will expire after 2025. These include lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit, bigger estate and gift tax exemption, and a 20% tax break for pass-through businesses, among other provisions.

The more things you try to bring in, the more potential political divisions we have to navigate.

Molly Reynolds

senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution

Tax bill could take longer than expected

Since budget reconciliation involves multiple steps, policy experts say the Republican tax bill could take months.

Plus, Congress has until Dec. 20 to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. A stopgap bill could push the deadline to January or March, which could take time from Trump’s tax priorities.

“The idea that they’re going to do this in 100 days, I think, is foolish,” Gleckman said. “My over-under is Dec. 31, 2025, and that might be optimistic.”

However, the bill could get through by Oct. 1, 2025, which closes the federal government’s fiscal year, other policy experts say.

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Personal Finance

Why it helps to file early

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We are overly reliant on student loans to fund higher education, says NACAC CEO Angel Perez

This week, the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid expanded its “phased rollout” so all students can now apply for aid for the upcoming academic year.

Up until Monday, the 2025-26 FAFSA was only available to limited groups of students in a series of beta tests that began on Oct. 1.

Now, the form is open to all and the Department of Education has said it will be out of testing entirely by Nov. 22 — which puts the official launch ahead of schedule.

Typically, all students have access to the coming academic year’s form in October, but last year’s new simplified form wasn’t available until late December after a monthslong delay.

This year, the plan was to be available to all students and contributors on or before Dec. 1.

Students who submit a form during this final “expanded beta” phase before Nov. 22 will not need to submit a subsequent 2025–26 FAFSA form, the education department said.

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There are still some issues with the new form, some of which also plagued last year’s college aid application cycle, but they all have workarounds, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Altogether, this year’s rollout is “much better than last year,” he said. 

Last year, complications with the new form resulted in some students not applying at all. Ultimately, that meant fewer students went on to college.

Why it’s important to file the FAFSA early

“Students should take full advantage of the early rollout and submit their FAFSA as soon as possible,” said Shaan Patel, the CEO and founder of Prep Expert, which provides Scholastic Aptitude Test and American College Test preparation courses.

The earlier families fill out the form, the better their chances are of receiving aid, since some financial aid is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, or from programs with limited funds.

“The earlier you apply, the better your chances of securing more aid that doesn’t need to be repaid,” Patel said.

“Submitting early also means you’ll receive your financial aid award letters sooner,” he said. “This gives you ample time to compare offers from different schools and make an informed decision without feeling rushed. Finally, knowing your child’s financial aid status earlier reduces stress and allows your family to focus on other important aspects of college preparation.”

For many students, financial aid is key.

Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including federal student loans, work-study and especially grants — which have become the most crucial kind of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.

Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data. 

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