Personal Finance
Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
A customer walks by a display of fresh eggs at a grocery store on Sept. 25, 2024 in San Anselmo, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Progress in the fight to tame pandemic-era inflation appears to have stalled out in October, despite lower prices at the gasoline pump and a moderation in other consumer staples such as groceries.
Meanwhile, economists think policies such as import tariffs floated by President-elect Donald Trump would likely — if enacted — exacerbate the inflation rate, which hasn’t yet declined to policymakers’ long-term target.
The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, was up 2.6% in October versus a year ago — an increase from 2.4% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The reading was in line with economists’ expectations.
While that October uptick may seem like a setback, consumers can take solace that broad price pressures are continuing to ease, economists and policymakers said.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said economic data points to inflation “continuing to come down on a bumpy path.”
“One or two really good data months or bad data months aren’t going to really change the pattern at this point,” Powell said during a press conference.
Stephen Brown, deputy chief North American economist at Capital Economics, echoed that sentiment: “The overall [inflation] trend is positive,” he said.
In fact, the pickup in the annual inflation rate is at least partly due to a statistical quirk: The monthly inflation rate in October 2023 was unusually low, making the October 2024 reading look relatively high by comparison, economists said.
‘Lagged impacts’ create trouble spots
Inflation has pulled back significantly from its pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
However, there are still some trouble spots.
Auto insurance prices, for example, are up 14% since October 2023, according to CPI data.
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Vehicle insurance premiums face “upward pressure” largely due to a lag effect from earlier inflationary dynamics, Brown said.
For example, new and used vehicle prices began to surge in 2021 amid a shortage of semiconductor chips used to manufacture cars; because of that sticker shock, insurers’ cost to replace vehicles after a car accident is much higher, Brown said. Insurers also typically need approval from regulators to raise consumer premiums, a process that takes time, he said.
“Lagged impacts” are affecting other categories, too, making for overall slow progress on reining in inflation, Brown said.
Housing is the ‘major impediment’
Homes in Discovery Bay, California.
David Paul Morri | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Housing, the largest CPI category, is a key example of that lag.
Shelter inflation has throttled back painfully slowly, even as inflation in the national rental market has declined considerably, economists said.
“Market rents, newly signed leases, are experiencing very low inflation,” Powell said during the press conference.
Shelter inflation has taken a long time to adjust to that housing backdrop due to how federal statisticians compile the CPI index. In short, its slow adjustment up or down is by design.
“So that’s just a catch-up problem,” Powell said. “It’s not really reflecting current inflationary pressures.”
CPI shelter inflation heated up on a monthly basis in October, rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in September. Its annual inflation rate has declined to less than 5% from a peak of more than 8% in early 2023.
Shelter is “the continued major impediment to getting inflation all the way back,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
The Federal Reserve has a long-term annual inflation target of around 2%.
Where consumers saw some relief in October
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Consumers saw some relief at the grocery store and at the gas pump in October.
Inflation for groceries cooled on a monthly basis, to 0.1% from September to October, down from 0.4% the prior month. Grocery prices are up about 1% since October 2023.
They’re “very, very tame,” Zandi said.
That’s despite various supply-and-demand idiosyncrasies that are raising prices for certain food items, he said. For example, avian flu, which is lethal for chickens and other birds, has negatively affected egg supply and led prices to swell 30% in the past year; similarly, a poor orange crop has pushed up orange prices 7% annually.
The price for a gallon of gasoline fell 1% during the month, according to CPI data. Prices are down more than 12% in the past year.
“Gasoline prices are way down,” Zandi said. Average prices could fall further, to below $3 a gallon, he said. They were at $3.05 a gallon, on average, as of Nov. 11, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“We could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft,” Zandi said.
That weakness may be in anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies around China, said Zandi. Those may include tariffs of at least 60% on goods imported from China, which has a huge appetite for oil. If Trump’s policies were to negatively affect the Chinese economy, they’d also likely dampen China’s oil demand.
Trump policies thought to be inflationary
Trump has proposed broader tariffs, of perhaps 10% or 20% on all goods imported to the U.S. Additionally, he has announced plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and enact a package of tax cuts.
If put in place, such policies would likely stoke U.S. inflation, economists said.
“While we believe that inflation remains on a disinflationary trajectory, we now see the risks as clearly tilted to the upside,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note Monday. “These risks stem from potential policy changes rather than economic fundamentals.”
Placing an import tax on goods would likely lead U.S. companies to raise prices for those goods, for example, economists said. Fewer immigrants in the labor pool may push businesses to raise wages to attract applicants and retain workers, while tax cuts could put more money in consumers’ pockets and boost their spending.
“Indeed, we see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented,” Bank of America economists wrote.
The annual inflation would likely be around 2.1% by the end of 2025 absent Trump’s policies, said Brown of Capital Economics. If enacted, that figure would likely be around 3%, he said, as a “ballpark estimate.”
“The return of inflation to the 2% target may prove short-lived,” Brown wrote in a research note Wednesday.
However, much depends on how, when and if those policies are enacted, economists said.
Americans are growing increasingly uneasy about the state of the U.S. economy and their own personal financial situation in the face of stubborn inflation and tariff wars.
To that point, 73% of respondents said they are “financially stressed,” with 66% of that group pointing to the tariff wars as a main source, according to a new CNBC/Survey Monkey online poll.
The survey of 4,200 U.S. adults was conducted April 3 to 7.
Americans feeling financially stressed
CNBC/Survey Monkey polls from 2023, 2024, and this year have found that, on average, more than 70% of Americans said that they are stressed about their personal finances. This year’s survey found that 38% of respondents overall said they are “very stressed,” and 29% of high-earners with incomes of $100,000 or more also shared that sentiment.
Consumers are, of course, increasingly stressed by rising prices for essentials like food, energy, and shelter. This is due to a number of factors, including rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events.
In the new CNBC survey, 86% of Americans cite inflation as the top reason for their financial stress, while 75% pointed to interest rates and 66% cited tariffs.
While inflation peaked at 8% in 2022, a 40-year high, it has since cooled significantly, reaching 2.4% in March. Despite this decline, the increased prices during 2022 have led to a loss of purchasing power for Americans, meaning they can buy less with the same amount of money than before.
It would take nearly $114 today to buy what would have cost $100 in January of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And while Inflation has eased, experts do say the fallout from President Trump’s trade war threatens to put upward pressure on prices in the months to come.
Tariffs are generally considered to be inflationary, economists say. This is because tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can then be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can lead to a temporary increase in the overall inflation rate.
“We know that tariffs are inflationary,” said David McWilliams, an economist, podcaster and author. “We know that’s hitting on people’s expectations of how much money they’re going to have in their pocket in a couple of months time.”
So, when it comes to financial stress caused by tariffs, 59% of those surveyed by CNBC oppose President Trump’s tariff policy, with 72% concerned about the impact on their personal financial situation.
As a result, 32% said they have delayed or avoided making retail purchases, and 15% said they have “stocked up.”
What’s more, 34% of those surveyed said they have made changes to their investments due to recent stock market volatility from tariffs.
Handling financial stress
Many investors are concerned about their retirement savings, but financial experts say it’s important for those with a long-term perspective to understand that short-term market volatility is a distraction that’s better off ignored.
“The biggest thing is that it’s unknown, and when we don’t know things, and we can’t control things, that’s when our anxiety and our worry can spike, and it’s contagious,” said licensed therapist and executive coach George James, CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board member, a licensed therapist and executive coach.
While the market could be in for a bumpy ride over the next few months, experts say it’s best to stay the course and avoid making major portfolio changes based on the latest news.
To manage investments during the latest tariff volatility, for example, financial advisors urge investors to maintain a long-term perspective, review and potentially adjust their asset allocation, and consider diversification to mitigate risk. It’s also smart to bolster emergency funds, review your risk tolerance, and explore opportunities for tax-loss harvesting.
Financial experts also urge investors to focus on their risk appetite — and their goals.
“This is the time to evaluate short-, mid-, and long-term financial needs, concerns, and goals. Evaluation before action or inaction is essential,” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo, said in an e-mail to CNBC. “Getting specific on exact dollar targets, timelines around these targets, and their level of importance [priority] can create clarity around what should be done, if anything.”
Hinterhaus Productions | Getty Images
As investors digest the latest bond market sell-off, advisors have tips about portfolio allocation amid continued market volatility.
Typically, investors flock to fixed income like U.S. Treasurys when there’s economic turmoil. The opposite happened this week with a sharp sell-off of U.S. government bonds, which dropped bond prices as yields soared. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Treasury yields then retreated Wednesday afternoon when President Donald Trump temporarily dropped tariffs to 10% for most countries but increased levies on Chinese goods. That duty now stands at 145%.
As of Thursday afternoon, Treasury yields were down slightly.
Still, “there’s a massive amount of uncertainty,” Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told CNBC.
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Experts closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield because it’s tied to borrowing rates for products like mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. The yield climbed above 4.5% overnight on Tuesday as investors offloaded the asset. As of Thursday afternoon, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.4%.
Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, told CNBC on Thursday that bond market volatility likely added “a little more urgency” to Trump’s tariff decision.
As some investors question their bond allocations, here’s what advisors are telling their clients.
Take the ‘proactive approach’
Despite the latest bond market sell-off, there hasn’t been a recent shift in client portfolios for certified financial planner Lee Baker, owner of Apex Financial Services in Atlanta.
“I’ve been taking a proactive approach” by shifting allocations early based on the threat of future tariffs, said Baker, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
With concerns about future inflation triggered by tariffs, Baker has increased client allocations of Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, which can provide a hedge against rising prices.
Consider ‘guardrails’
Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C., has also been defensive with client portfolios.
“I’ve used instruments to give me guardrails,” such as buffer exchange-traded funds to limit losses while capping upside potential, said Johnson, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.
Buffer ETFs use options contracts to provide a pre-defined range of outcomes over a set period. The funds are tied to an underlying index, such as the S&P 500. These assets typically have higher fees than traditional ETFs.
Take a ‘temperature check’
With future stock market volatility expected, investors should revisit risk tolerance and portfolio allocations, Baker said.
“This is a good time for a temperature check,” he said.
Market turmoil has happened before and will happen again. If you can’t stomach the latest drawdowns — in stocks or bonds — this is a chance to shift to more conservative holdings, Baker said.
“We’re not selling because I’m concerned about the market,” he added. “I’m concerned about comfort level.”
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