Personal Finance

Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2024 — in one chart

Published

5 months ago

October 10, 2024

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Inflation fell in September as lower gasoline prices combined with other waning price pressures in areas such as housing to bring relief to consumers’ wallets, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, was up 2.4% last month from September 2023, the bureau said.

That figure is a decline from 2.5% in August, meaning price growth slowed. It’s also the smallest annual reading since February 2021.

The September CPI figure was slightly higher than economists predicted, however.

There were some trouble spots, such as an uptick in categories including clothing, car insurance and groceries. Most appear to be “one-off” increases, though, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

“The trend on inflation remains very positive,” Zandi said. “This month was a blip and I don’t think it will be sustained.”

The CPI measures how quickly prices are rising or falling for a broad basket of goods and services, from car repairs to peanut butter and living room furniture.

Inflation has pulled back significantly from its pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022. It’s moving toward policymakers’ long-term annual target, near 2%.

“We have made substantial improvement over the past two years,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.

That said, a slowdown in the labor market has concerned economists more than inflation in recent months.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, which had raised interest rates sharply to combat high inflation starting in early 2022, began cutting them in September to take pressure off the labor market and economy.

Prices fall at the gas pump

Annual food inflation is ‘fairly tame’

Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

Food inflation over the past year has also been “fairly tame,” House said.

Grocery prices are up 1.3% since September 2023, according to the CPI.

Prices for agricultural commodities — a “major input cost” for food — have either fallen or look “more stable,” House said. Examples of agricultural commodities include corn, wheat, coffee and soybeans.

Wage growth has slowed, reducing labor costs to transport or prepare food, for example, House said. And grocery stores have offered more price incentives and promotions as consumers become more concerned about their spending, she said.

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in September, hotter than expected; annual rate increased 2.4%

That said, grocery inflation did see a large jump on a monthly basis from August to September, to 0.4% from 0%.

“I don’t think that will be sustained going forward,” Zandi said.

Individual food items have their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics that can affect pricing.

For example, egg prices rose by more than 8% from August to September, and by 40% since September 2023, largely due to another outbreak of avian flu, a contagious and lethal disease that affects chickens and other birds, said economists.

Housing inflation is declining

Housing accounts for the largest share of CPI — and has been the biggest stumbling block in getting inflation back to its target level, economists said.

“It’s a huge component,” House said. “What happens there can really move the dial when it comes to overall inflation and core inflation.”

CPI shelter inflation — which includes rental prices and an equivalent measure for homeowners — has gradually declined but remained stubbornly high. That has puzzled many economists, since real-estate data shows that growth for average rents of new tenants has been muted for about two years.

In September, shelter inflation throttled back on a monthly basis, to 0.2% from 0.5% in August.

That’s among the most encouraging signals in the latest CPI report, economists said.

“Shelter inflation is now definitively moderating,” Zandi said. “And that’s such a key part of the CPI.”

‘Slower to recede’

Housing falls into the “services” category of the economy.

Inflation for goods has largely throttled back from pandemic-era nosebleed levels as out-of-whack supply-and-demand dynamics unwind, economists said.

But services inflation “has still been pretty slow to recede,” House said.

Largely, that’s been because of shelter. But other categories also remain elevated.

Many services “rely heavily” on prices in other parts of the economy, House said. For example, insurers are now raising car insurance premiums following an earlier surge in new and used car prices.

Prices for motor vehicle insurance increased 1.2% from August to September and about 16% since September 2023, according to the CPI.

It typically takes a while for such dynamics to filter through, on paper, to the services side, she said.

“Services inflation was slower to peak on the way up and likely to be slower to recede on the way down,” she said.

Personal Finance

Social Security plans to cut about 7,000 workers. That may affect benefits

Published

13 minutes ago

March 3, 2025

Business Finance News

The Social Security Administration office in Brownsville, Texas.

Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration plans to shed 7,000 employees as the Trump administration looks for ways to cut federal spending.

The agency on Friday confirmed the figure — which will bring its total staff down to 50,000 from 57,000.

Previous reports that the Social Security Administration planned for a 50% reduction to its headcount are “false,” the agency said.

Nevertheless, the aim of 7,000 job cuts has prompted concerns about the agency’s ability to continue to provide services, particularly benefit payments, to tens of millions of older Americans when its staff is already at a 50-year low.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that it takes for them to have their claim processed,” said Greg Senden, a paralegal analyst who has worked at the Social Security Administration for 27 years.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that they have to wait to get benefits,” said Senden, who also helps the American Federation of Government Employees oversee Social Security employees in six central states.

Officials at the White House and the Social Security Administration were not available for comment at press time.

The Social Security Administration on Friday said it anticipates “much of” the staff reductions needed to reach its target will come from resignations, retirement and offers for Voluntary Separation Incentive Payments, or VSIP.

More reductions could come from “reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions” or reassignments to other positions, the agency said. Federal agencies must submit their reduction-in-force plans by March 13 to the Office of Personnel Management for approval.

Cuts may affect benefit payments, experts say

Former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley last week told CNBC.com that the continuity of benefit payments could be at risk for the first time in the program’s history.

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Other experts say the changes could affect benefits, though it remains to be seen exactly how.

“It’s unclear to me whether the staff cuts are more likely to result in an interruption of benefits, or an increase in improper payments,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare.

Improper payments happen when the agency either overpays or underpays benefits due to inaccurate information.

Top Social Security official exits after refusing DOGE access to sensitive data

With fewer staff, the Social Security Administration will have to choose between making sure all claims are processed, which may lead to more improper payments, or avoiding those errors, which could lead to processing delays, Blahous said.

Disability benefits, which require more agency staff attention both to process initial claims and to continue to verify beneficiaries are eligible, may be more susceptible to errors compared to retirement benefits, he added.

Cuts may have minimal impact on trust funds

Under the Trump administration, Social Security also plans to consolidate its geographic footprint to four regions down from 10 regional offices, the agency said on Friday.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how much savings the overall reforms will generate.

The Social Security Administration’s funding for administrative costs comes out of its trust funds, which are also used to pay benefits. Based on current projections, the trust funds will be depleted in the next decade and Social Security will not be able to pay full benefits at that time, unless Congress acts sooner.

The efforts to cut costs at the Social Security Administration would likely only help the trust fund solvency “in some miniscule way,” said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

What President Donald Trump is likely looking to do broadly is reset the baseline on government spending and employment, he said.

“I’m not disagreeing with the idea that the agency could be more efficient,” Biggs said. “I just wonder whether you can come up with that by cutting the positions first and figuring out how to have the efficiencies later.”

Personal Finance

Student loan borrowers pursuing PSLF are ‘panicking.’ Here’s what to know

Published

1 hour ago

March 3, 2025

Business Finance News

Students walk through the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

As the Trump administration overhauls the student loan system, many borrowers pursuing the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program are worried about its future.

“There’s a lot of panicking by PSLF borrowers due to the uncertainty,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

Here’s what borrowers in the program need to know about recent changes affecting the program.

IDR repayment plan applications down

Some borrowers’ PSLF progress has stalled

While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration paused the payments for enrollees through a forbearance, as well as the accrual of any interest.

Unlike the payment pause during the pandemic, borrowers in this forbearance aren’t getting credit toward their required 120 payments for loan forgiveness under PSLF. It’s unclear when the forbearance will end.

But while the applications for other IDR plans remain unavailable, borrowers in SAVE are stuck on their timeline toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. If you were on an IDR plan other than SAVE, you will continue to get credit during this period if you’re making payments and working in eligible employment.

The Education Department is now tweaking the applications to make sure all their repayment plans comply with the new court order, an agency spokesperson told CNBC last week.

It will likely be months before the Department has reworked all the applications and made them available again, Kantrowitz said.

Those who switch to the Standard plan will continue to get PSLF credit, but the payments are often too high for those working in the public sector or for a nonprofit to afford, experts said.

‘Buy back’ opportunity can help

While it’s frustrating not to be inching toward loan forgiveness for the time being, an option down the road may help, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

The Education Department’s Buyback opportunity lets people pay for certain months that didn’t count, if doing so brings them up to 120 qualifying payments.

For example, time spent in forbearances or deferments that suspended your progress can essentially be cashed in for qualifying payments.

The extra payment must total at least as much as what you have paid monthly under an IDR plan, according to Studentaid.gov.

Borrowers who’ve now been pursuing PSLF for 10 years or more should put in their buyback request sooner than later, Kantrowitz said.

“The benefit is likely to be eliminated by the Trump administration,” he said.

Keep records

Borrowers have already long complained of inaccurate payment counts under the PSLF program. While the student loan repayment options are tweaked, people could see more errors, Kantrowitz said.

“A borrower’s payment history and other student loan details are more likely to get corrupted during a transition,” he said.

As a result, he said, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov.

“It would also be a good idea to create a spreadsheet showing all of the qualifying payments so they have their own count,” Kantrowitz said.

With the PSLF help tool, borrowers can search for a list of qualifying employers and access the employer certification form. Try to fill out this form at least once a year, Kantrowitz added.

Personal Finance

Treasury Department halts enforcement of BOI reporting for businesses

Published

4 hours ago

March 3, 2025

Business Finance News

The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Jan. 27, 2025.

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Sunday announced it won’t enforce the penalties or fines associated with the Biden-era “beneficial ownership information,” or BOI, reporting requirements for millions of domestic businesses.

Enacted via the Corporate Transparency Act in 2021 to fight illicit finance and shell company formation, BOI reporting requires small businesses to identify who directly or indirectly owns or controls the company to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN.

After previous court delays, the Treasury in late February set a March 21 deadline to comply or risk civil penalties of up to $591 a day, adjusted for inflation, or criminal fines of up to $10,000 and up to two years in prison. The reporting requirements could apply to roughly 32.6 million businesses, according to federal estimates.

The rule was enacted to “make it harder for bad actors to hide or benefit from their ill-gotten gains through shell companies or other opaque ownership structures,” according to FinCEN.

In addition to not enforcing BOI penalties and fines, the Treasury said it would issue a proposed regulation to apply the rule to foreign reporting companies only.

President Donald Trump praised the news in a Truth Social post on Sunday night, describing the reporting rule as “outrageous and invasive” and “an absolute disaster” for small businesses.

Other experts say the Treasury’s decision could have ramifications for national security.

“This decision threatens to make the United States a magnet for foreign criminals, from drug cartels to fraudsters to terrorist organizations,” Scott Greytak, director of advocacy for anticorruption organization Transparency International U.S., said in a statement.

Greg Iacurci contributed to this reporting.