Economics
Here’s what to expect from a key inflation reading
Shoppers are seen in a Kroger supermarket in Atlanta on Oct. 14, 2022.
Elijah Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Images
Rising gasoline prices likely put a floor under inflation in February, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to take a go-slow approach with interest rate reductions.
Economists expect that prices across a broad spectrum of goods and services rose 0.4% on the month, just ahead of the January pace for 0.3%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month.
On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The respective 12-month readings in January were 3.1% and 3.9%.
Though it has fallen sharply since its peak in mid-2022, inflation’s resilience almost certainly will assure no Fed rate cuts at its next meeting March 19-20, and possibly into the summer, according to current market pricing. Markets were rattled in January when the CPI data came in higher than expected, and Fed officials shifted their rhetoric afterward to a more cautious tone about easing policy.
“While we do not expect the trend in inflation to re-accelerate this year, less clear progress over the next few months is likely to keep the Fed searching for more confidence that inflation is on course to return to target on a sustained basis,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a recent client note.
Energy prices had eased earlier in the winter, putting some downward pressure on headline readings.
But Wells Fargo estimates that energy services rebounded 4% in February, leading to an increase at the pump, where a gallon of regular gas is up about 20 cents, or more than 6%, from a month ago, according to AAA.
The bank also estimates that goods prices have held their ground despite an easing in supply chain pressures and pressure from higher interest rates. On the brighter side, the House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check.
Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast.
The bank’s economists now expect core CPI to run at a 3.3% rate this year, up from the previous 2.8% estimate. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate of 2.2%.
Wells Fargo isn’t alone in expecting a higher pace of inflation.
In its February survey of consumers, the New York Fed found that while respondents held to their one-year outlook for inflation at 3%, their expectations at the three- and five-year horizons accelerated to 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, both well ahead of the central bank’s 2% target.
While increases in gas prices can play an outsize role in monthly fluctuations for the survey, the outlook for gas price increases was actually relatively benign.
An Atlanta Fed measure of “sticky price” inflation held at 4.6% on a 12-month basis in January. The gauge is weighted toward items such as housing and insurance, and Fed officials are hoping that shelter costs decrease through the year, taking some pressure off the cost of living gauges.
On Thursday, the BLS will release the February producer price index, which measures what producers get for their goods and services at the wholesale level. The two indexes will be the last inflation data the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will see before it meets next week.
Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.
Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.
Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.
Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.
Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.
People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.
On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.
Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.
Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.
Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.
Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.
At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.
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