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Here’s what to watch out for in the 2025 housing market

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Miniseries | E+ | Getty Images

Housing is not cheap — whether you’re buying or renting

In October, the median sales price for a single-family home in the U.S. was $437,300, up from $426,800 a month prior, according to the latest data by the U.S. Census. 

Meanwhile, the median rent price in the U.S. was $1,619 in October, roughly flat or up 0.2% from a year ago and down 0.6% from a month prior, according to Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.

While it can be difficult to exactly pinpoint how the housing market is going to play out in 2025, several economists lay out predictions of what’s likely to happen next year in a new report by Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.

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“If the housing market were going to crash, it would have already crashed by now,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “The housing market has been so resilient to interest rates going up as high as they have.”

Here are five housing market predictions for 2025, according to Fairweather and other economists. 

Home price growth will return to pre-pandemic levels

Closing the Deal with the Property Brothers

Despite predictions of growth slowing, there may still be some volatility in prices.

In fact, home price appreciation might stay flat, or less than 1%, going into the 2025 spring home buying season, said Selma Hepp, economist at CoreLogic.

But the possibility of President-elect Donald Trump enacting some of his economic policies could drive home prices much higher, said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree. 

“We kind of have some mixed signals right now in terms of what may or may not happen to home prices,” he said. 

General tariffs on foreign goods and materials as well as mass deportations could result in higher construction costs and slower home-building activity. If fewer homes are built in a supply-constrained market, prices might grow much higher, said Channel.

Flattening rents, with more room to negotiate

At a national level, the median asking rent price in the U.S. will likely stay flat over the course of a year in 2025, as new rental inventory becomes available, according to Redfin.

“If rents are flat, and people’s wages continue to grow, that means people have more money to spend,” Redfin’s Fairweather said, as well as increase their savings.

More than 21 million renter households are “cost-burdened,” meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on housing costs, according to 2023 U.S. Census data.

A stable rental market will also give renters more strength to negotiate with landlords. In some areas, property managers are already offering concessions like one month rent free, a free parking space or waiving fees, experts say.

Rents likely to come down in 2025, says Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman

However, “it’s December,” Channel said. “Rent prices typically decline in the colder months of the year,” as fewer people are apartment hunting in the late fall and winter seasons. 

If would-be buyers continue to be priced out of the for-sale market next year through high home prices and mortgage rates, competition in the rental market may ensue, he said.

Also keep in mind that the typical rent price you see will depend on what’s going on in your local market, Hepp explained.

For instance: Austin, Texas was the “epicenter of multi-family construction,” she said, meaning a lot of new supply was added into the city’s rental market, bringing rental costs down. The metro area’s rent prices fell by 2.9% from a year ago, CoreLogic found.

In contrast, supply-constrained metropolitan areas like Seattle, Washington, D.C., and New York City, are experiencing high rent growth of 5% annually. 

A ‘bumpy’ and ‘volatile’ year for mortgage rates

Redfin forecasts mortgage rates will average 6.8% in 2025, and hover around the low-6% range if the economy continues to slow.

Yet experts expect 2025 will be a “bumpy” and “volatile” year for mortgage rates.

Borrowing costs for home loans could spike if policies like tax cuts and tariffs are enacted, putting upward pressure on inflation. 

“We’re sort of in uncharted territory. It’s really tough to say exactly what’s going to happen,” said LendingTree’s Channel. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again in November as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win. Since then, mortgage rates have somewhat stabilized — for now.

“Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, recently told CNBC.

More home sales than in 2024

Pent-up demand from buyers and sellers on the sidelines may drive home transactions next year. 

“People have waited long enough,” Fairweather said. 

About 4 million homes are expected to be sold by the end of 2025, an annual increase between 2% and 9% from 2024, according to Redfin. 

The market is piling on with “people who need to move on with their lives,” like buyers who are getting new jobs and need homes suitable for life changes, and sellers who have delayed moving plans, Fairweather said. 

While more buyers are expected to hit the market next year, the level of competition may not be as aggressive as in recent years, when bidding wars were the norm.

Other affordability factors may come into play, like rising insurance costs and property taxes, in turn slowing down competition, said CoreLogic’s Hepp. 

“We’ll definitely see more buyers out there,” she said. “But I don’t see the competition heating up to the levels that it has over the last few years.” 

Climate risks will bake into homes prices

The hidden reason some U.S. homes are losing value

What’s more challenging, “every part of the country is vulnerable” because the weather patterns are changing, she said. “Lately, there have been these atmospheric rivers in California that have caused days of heavy flooding, and those homes aren’t built for that.”

While there’s a lot of focus on Florida for hurricane risks, the state is more prepared for this natural disaster, unlike areas like Asheville, North Carolina, a mountainous city battered by the hurricane Milton earlier this year. 

“We will probably see insurance increase pretty broadly because that mismatch between what homes were built for and the climate that they are going to be facing in the coming years,” she said.

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Cities where you can quickly save a 20% home down payment

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Cofotoisme | E+ | Getty Images

How long it takes you to save for a 20% down payment on a home depends in part on where you live. 

In a pricey area such as New York City, it could take the typical buyer roughly 10.85 years to save $173,000, which is 20% of the median list price of $865,000 for a home, according to a report by RealtyHop, a real estate investment agency.

RealtyHop measured the “barrier to homeownership” for the top 100 U.S. cities by population. The analysis is based on median list price using more than 1.5 million residential listings, as well as median household income data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It assumes a household saves 20% of its annual gross income and intends to make a 20% down payment.

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In each of the five cities with the lowest barrier to homeownership, the savings timeline is less than four years.

Detroit has the lowest barrier to homeownership, the report found. 

In Detroit, potential homebuyers who earn about $39,575 — the median household income in the area — need just 2.53 years to come up with a 20% down payment on a home purchase, the report found. That amounts to $20,000 for a home priced at $100,000.

Cleveland, Ohio, is the runner-up: A potential buyer in the area needs 3.55 years to save $27,800, or 20% of a home that costs $139,000, the median listing price in the area.

Rounding out the top five are Baltimore; Buffalo, New York; and Pittsburgh.

Even in cheap cities, there can be savings roadblocks

Big expenses can derail your down payment savings timeline, even in a city where homes are less expensive.

A separate report by Zoocasa, a Canada-based real estate website and brokerage, found that homebuyers with children on average take longer to come up with a 20% down payment versus buyers without children because of expenses such as child care costs.

Potential homebuyers with children in Detroit, for example, need roughly 20.3 years to save for a 20% down payment from scratch, according to Zoocasa. Meanwhile, homebuyers without children in the area need about 4.2 years to come up with a 20% down payment if they’re starting off without prior savings, the report found.

Rising home prices can represent another challenge, said Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree.

“The more expensive real estate is where you want to live, the more you’ll probably want to save for a down payment,” Channel said.

The median list price for homes in Los Angeles, for example, is about $1.13 million, RealtyHop found. LA tops the list of five cities with the biggest barriers to homeownership, followed by Irvine, California; Miami; New York City; and Anaheim, California.

Even the cheapest real estate price on the “high barrier” list — No. 3, Miami — is $699,000, nearly three times pricier than the most expensive city on the “low barrier” list, Pittsburgh.

If a typical household in LA aimed for a 20% down payment, they would need to save $1,339 a month for roughly 14.10 years, the report found.

Why you might not need to put 20% down

In many cases, a 20% down payment is not required for you to buy a home.

In the third quarter of 2024, the average down payment was 14.5% and the median amount was $30,300, according to Realtor.com data. That’s down from 14.9% and $32,700 in the second quarter of 2024, the site found.

Some mortgages require much smaller down payments. For instance, the Department of Veterans Affairs offers VA loan programs; those who qualify can put down as little as 0%. Mortgages from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, referred to as USDA loans, aim to help buyers purchase homes in rural areas and also offer 0% down payment options. 

Federal Housing Administration loans, or FHA loans, can require as little as 3.5% down for qualifying borrowers, which include first-time buyers, low- and moderate-income buyers, and buyers from minority groups. 

The disappearance of the starter home

The benefit of a smaller down payment is that you can become a homeowner faster, and with less saved up, experts say. 

But if you decide to buy a home with less cash upfront, you’ll likely end up with higher monthly mortgage payments

“If you put less money toward a down payment, you’re going to end up with a larger loan,” Channel said.

Additionally, private mortgage insurance is usually added on to the monthly cost when the buyer puts less than 20% down on the home, he said.

PMI can cost anywhere from 0.5% to 1.5% of the loan amount per year, depending on factors such as your credit score and your total down payment, according to The Mortgage Reports. For example, on a loan for $300,000, mortgage insurance premiums could cost from $1,500 to $4,500 a year, or $125 to $375 a month, the site found.

“That’s another kind of payment that might be bundled in with your mortgage that further increases your housing costs,” Channel said. 

How to come up with your own savings timeline

Where you want to live long-term and what your financial circumstances are can help you figure out your own down payment savings timeline, according to Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage.

First, you need to have a good household budget — understand how much money you make, the amount you typically spend and what you’re able to save in a given month, said Cohn. 

“Can you cut back on how much you spend? Can you increase your savings? … Can you save your bonuses every year?” she said. 

Then, find out what a house in your desired location typically costs. “It would be important for a buyer to go out and get an understanding of what price point would work for them,” Cohn said. 

You also have to save for closing costs, which can vary substantially from place to place, Cohn said.

Average closing costs can range from roughly 2% to 6% of the loan amount, according to NerdWallet. So a $300,000 mortgage could require from $6,000 to $18,000 in closing costs on top of the down payment, it said.

To figure out what closing costs typically amount to in your desired area, ask a mortgage broker or a real estate agent, she said. 

Overall, you want to set realistic goals for yourself and take the time you need to get there. 

“Go as slow or as quickly as you need to,” LendingTree’s Channel said. “Ensure that you’re making good choices.”

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How Trump’s second term could mean the downfall of the FDIC, CFPB

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Here's what to expect from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE

Sweeping changes may be in store once President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Among them could be the closure of numerous federal agencies and regulators.

Trump will be sworn in for a second nonconsecutive term in the White House on Jan. 20. Already, he has suggested major cuts to federal spending.

To that end, Trump named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy co-chairs of a new outside advisory board dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. 

As part of its agenda, advisors to the government-efficiency group reportedly inquired about the possibility of shrinking or dismantling the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, according to a December report in The Wall Street Journal. In a Nov. 27 post on X, Musk also suggested the White House should “delete” the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, another independent agency. “There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies,” he wrote in the post.

Trump’s transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

The future of the FDIC

Most bank account holders take for granted the fact that their deposits are insured.

Since its creation during the Great Depression, the FDIC has secured up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank, in each account ownership category. And over nearly a century, no depositor has lost FDIC-insured funds due to a bank failure

“That’s one of its legacies,” said William Isaac, who was named chairman of the FDIC by former President Ronald Reagan and headed the agency during the banking crisis of the 1980s.

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In place of the independent agency, the Trump administration could task the Treasury Department with overseeing deposit insurance, according to reports.

“There may be great value in downsizing or eliminating overlapping agencies while still keeping key underlying functions they serve,” said Tomas Philipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “For example, one proposal is to have Treasury insure bank-deposits rather than an additional agency such as FDIC.”

“It’s important to separate what government activities are being performed from who or how many agencies are in charge,” Philipson said. “Holding constant the activities being regulated, the fewer agencies the better.”

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“I think it’s a terrible idea,” Isaac said of abolishing the agency. “The FDIC has brought about stability like we’ve never seen before.”

Others also argue that eliminating the FDIC would undermine the consumer lending system and leave some savers vulnerable.

“Getting rid of the FDIC would be a disaster for the U.S. economy and its preeminent status as a financial center,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School. “Deposits are an abundant, cheap source of capital for American financial institutions.”

“Large banks may do fine without FDIC protections on their clients. But an end to federal insurance on them would be a serious drag on regional financial institutions that provide a major source of consumer lending and small-business financing,” House said.

Ultimately, because Congress controls the appropriation of federal funds, any proposal to eliminate the FDIC or any other agency would require congressional action.

The future of the CFPB

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has a much shorter track record than the FDIC. The watchdog group was created by Congress on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis to enforce consumer protection laws. 

Since then, the CFPB has issued roughly 35 regulatory reports, including a 2024 effort to insulate Americans from credit card late fees.

“The CFPB is a recent creation and U.S. markets clearly functioned well for decades without it,” said Columbia’s House. “But recent increases in market concentration and power for a handful of firms in several major economic sectors makes the CFPB a critical force in balancing business and consumer interests.”

Unlike the FDIC, the CFPB draws its funding from the Federal Reserve system. Because it does not rely on an annual appropriation from Congress, it is somewhat insulated from political pressure.

However, the Consumer Bankers Association says the agency has increasingly “advanced ideologically-driven policies,” particularly over the last four years.

“The incoming administration and Congress have a unique and important opportunity to institute meaningful reforms to the CFPB, in both the immediate and long-term, that can help transform the agency into the credible and durable regulator Americans deserve,” CBA President and CEO Lindsey Johnson said in an email.

The CBA also released a white paper Tuesday outlining recommended changes to the CFPB, which include repealing or rescinding recent rules and guidance.

Consumers, however, are largely in favor of the CFPB’s actions, according to advocates. The agency protects “hard-working people from predatory practices and discrimination in financial services,” Richard Dubois, executive director of the National Consumer Law Center, said in a statement.

If the CFPB is dismantled, that could mean consumers would see some of those protections overturned — and it’s unclear what government entity, if any, might pick up the agency’s efforts for new or emerging issues. The CFPB has been investigating digital payment apps and buy now, pay later services, for example.

But there may still be room for streamlining, Isaac said.

“Surely we are wasting a lot of money. Anything we can cut out that’s not necessary — that’s fat — needs to be cut,” he said.

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What to expect from travel prices in 2025

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Osaka, Japan.

Jiale Tan | Moment | Getty Images

The new year has many travelers thinking ahead to 2025 vacation plans — and how much those trips may cost.

About half — 51% — of Americans say flight cost will determine their destination choices this year, according to Skyscanner. And 50% said hotel costs are a factor.

The average person has paid more for travel of late: Airline fares were up 8% in December, on an annual basis, and hotel costs had increased 2%, according to the consumer price index.

But travelers can still find deals, experts said.

They may find the best bargains by going abroad in 2025 — especially by visiting the Asia-Pacific region, experts said.

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Airfare for international trips is down 4% this year compared with 2024, according to a recent Kayak analysis. About two-thirds of all flight searches for travel in 2025 are for international flights, it found.

Conversely, airfare for U.S. flights in 2025 is up 3% from last year, Kayak said.

Kayak’s analysis examined its internal search data between May 1 and Oct. 31, 2024, for travel in 2025.

Domestic fares in January are about 12% higher relative to the same month last year, according to Hopper, a travel site. They’re expected to stay above 2023 and 2024 levels until at least halfway through the year.

“Overall, it’s going to be a more expensive year than last year” for domestic travel, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper.

Largely, that’s because flying domestically in 2024 was cheap, as airlines “flooded the market” with seat inventory, Berg said.

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“Prices this year are very similar to prices in 2023,” she said. “And 2024 really threw us for a loop in how low they got.”

Meanwhile, long-haul fares to Europe, South America, Oceania and Asia are flat or lower to start the year, Berg said.

Of course, a trip abroad is likely to be more costly on a dollar basis than one closer to home: The average round-trip U.S. flight cost about $300 in January, versus $685 to South America, $750 to Europe and about $1,100 to Asia, according to Hopper.

Average hotel rates abroad and in the U.S. are similar to 2024, according to Kayak.

Rental cars are 8% and 4% more expensive for international and domestic rates, respectively, it said.

Why Asia is ‘the best bargain’

Sapporo, Japan.

Sergio Formoso | Moment | Getty Images

A ‘new market equilibrium’ for airfare

Daniel Garrido | Moment | Getty Images

Airfare to Asia-Pacific destinations is pulling back from high levels following the Covid-19 pandemic, Berg said.

Asian nations were generally slower to reopen their borders and drop Covid restrictions relative to other countries. Now, airlines are adding flight routes, boosting supply and lowering seat prices, Berg said.

“We have to see what the new market equilibrium will be,” Berg said.

Jet fuel prices — a major input cost for airlines — were down 11% in January from last year, Hopper said.

Like Asia, travel to the Caribbean is also the cheapest in three years, with airfare down 17% compared with 2024, according to Kayak.

Hotel deals more likely for off-season travel

Tips for saving money on travel in 2025

Colton Stiffler | Moment | Getty Images

There are some ways consumers can reliably save money on travel expenses.

1. Flexibility is ‘key’

“Flexibility is really the key to saving on travel,” Berg said.

This applies to many aspects of travel, including destination, the time of year you visit that locale and the days of the week you travel, experts said.

For example, it’s generally cheaper to fly midweek. Hotel stays have a similar dynamic. The bottom line: Weekends are probably pricier.

“Adjusting your [hotel] stay to midweek instead of weekends or traveling during the off-season can lead to substantial savings,” Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet, wrote in an e-mail.

Seasonality has a “huge effect” on flight costs, Fish said.

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A bucket-list trip to Europe in August will be expensive and crowded, but traveling in September or October can save you 30%, Berg said. Visit a city instead of taking a beach trip during spring break, or wait until fall to head to Europe, Fish recommended.

Experts also recommend travel “dupes,” a less-trodden but similar alternative to a popular destination.

Also be open to alternative airports, French said.

“Many cities are served by multiple airports,” she said. “Rather than fly into, say San Francisco International Airport, consider flying into Oakland International Airport, which is a similar distance to most parts of the city for a trip to San Francisco.”

2. Book at the right time

Domestic flights are often cheaper when bought about one to three months ahead, French said. International travelers should book two to eight months in advance.

Last-minute airfare deals are rare, so book in advance for maximum availability and generally lower prices, she said.

The logic isn’t always the same for hotels: Travelers can sometimes find last-minute deals on room rates in certain markets, Fish said.

3. Book directly with your hotel

Many hotels offer price-match guarantees or loyalty member discounts that aren’t available on third-party booking sites, French said.

“Third-party booking sites can be great to browse and compare hotels against each other on that site, but once you’ve narrowed down the hotel you want to book, check its price elsewhere (including the direct hotel website, or even bank travel portals),” she wrote in an e-mail.

4. Set flight alerts

Use tools such as Google Flights or Hopper to monitor prices and snag deals when fares drop, French said.

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