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Here’s why tariffs may curtail interest rate cuts in 2025

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A truck drives on its way to enter the United States at a border crossing at the Canada-U.S. border in Blackpool, Quebec, Canada, on Feb. 2, 2025.

Andrej Ivanov | Afp | Getty Images

‘A lot of uncertainty’ on Trump tariff policy

Of course, the situation is fluid, making a precise assessment a near impossibility, economists said.

For example, Trump said on Monday he’d pause a 25% tariff on Mexico from taking effect for a month after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to immediately send 10,000 soldiers to her country’s border to prevent drug trafficking.

Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for one month after agreement on border troops

It appears, for now, that tariffs on Canada and China will take effect Tuesday as planned.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how policies unfold,” Susan Collins, president the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, told CNBC Monday.

How tariffs may impact inflation, interest rates

Automakers prepare for tariffs on parts and goods from Mexico and Canada

Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico “would push up” PCE inflation by roughly 0.7 percentage points, relative to a no-tariff baseline, to around 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a note published Tuesday by Evercore ISI.

“That would knock out at least one and plausibly both remaining Fed cuts this year,” the Evercore note said.

In December, Fed officials forecast they’d cut interest rates twice in 2025.

“Obviously there is some uncertainty about whether these tariffs will go ahead or not, given the one-month pause of the Mexico one announced today,” Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in an e-mail. “If the tariffs go ahead, it’s unlikely that the Fed will cut again.”

While some have suggested that tariffs may push the central bank to raise interest rates again, Brown thinks that’s unlikely. Tariffs would likely be a drag on the U.S. economy, he said.

Likewise, J.P. Morgan projects that proposed tariffs would reduce U.S. gross domestic product — a measure of economic output — by 0.5 to 1 percentage point through 2026, Seydl said.

That economic drag could outweigh the inflationary impact of tariffs and eventually lead the Fed to cut rates, he said.

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Trump’s IRS Commissioner pick Billy Long grilled by Senate Democrats

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UNITED STATES – MARCH 31: Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., is seen during the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology hearing titled Connecting America: Oversight of the FCC, in Rayburn Building on Thursday, March 31, 2022.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Senate lawmakers pressed President Donald Trump‘s pick for IRS Commissioner, former Missouri Congressman Billy Long, about his opinions on presidential power over the agency, use of taxpayer data and his ties to dubious tax credits.

Long, who worked as an auctioneer before serving six terms in the House of Representatives, answered Senate Finance Committee queries during a confirmation hearing Tuesday.

One of the key themes from Democrats was Trump’s power over the agency, and Long told the committee, “the IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who provided her questions to Long in advance, asked whether Trump could legally end Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. If permitted, the move could have broad implications for the President’s power over the agency, she argued.

However, Long didn’t answer the question directly.

“I don’t intend to let anybody direct me to start [an] audit for political reasons,” he said.

Ties to dubious tax credits

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., scrutinized Long’s online promotion of the pandemic-era employee retention tax credit worth thousands per eligible employee. The tax break sparked a cottage industry of scrupulous companies pushing the tax break to small businesses that didn’t qualify.

“I didn’t say everyone qualifies,” Long said. “I said virtually everyone qualifies.”

Senators also asked about Long’s referral income from companies pushing so-called “tribal tax credits,” which the IRS has told Democratic lawmakers don’t exist.

“I did not have any perception whatsoever that these did not exist,” Long told the committee.

Senate Democrats also raised questions about donations people connected to those credits made to Long’s dormant Senate campaign, after Trump announced his nomination to head the IRS.

Direct File ‘one of the hottest topics’

While Senate Democrats grilled Long on his record, Republicans focused on questions about taxpayer service. Several Republican lawmakers voiced support for Long, including the committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho. 

If confirmed by the Senate, Long could mean a shift for the agency, which previously embarked on a multibillion-dollar revamp, including upgrades to customer service, technology and a free filing program, known as Direct File.

When asked about the future of Direct File, Long said he planned to promptly examine the program, describing it as “one of the hottest topics at the IRS.”

‘An unconventional pick’

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Student loan borrowers struggle to get into income-driven repayment plan

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Nearly 2 million federal student loan borrowers who’ve requested to be in an affordable repayment plan are stuck in a backlog of applications, waiting to be approved or denied, according to new data recently shared by the U.S. Department of Education.

The Education Department disclosed the information in a May 15 court filing in response to a legal challenge lodged by the American Federation of Teachers. The teachers’ union sued the Trump administration in March for shutting down access to income-driven repayment plan applications on the Education Department’s website.

IDR plans cap borrowers’ monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income with the aim of making their payments manageable.

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In late March, the Trump administration made the online applications available again, and said that it pulled the forms because it needed to make sure all repayment plans complied with a court order that blocked the Biden administration’s new IDR plan, known as SAVE, or the Saving on a Valuable Education plan.

Trump officials argued that the ruling had broader implications for other IDR plans, and it ended up removing the loan forgiveness component under some of the options.

The backlog complicates things for borrowers as the Trump administration restarts collection activity. The Education Department estimates that nearly 10 million people could be in default on their student loans within months.

Without access to an affordable repayment plan, student loan borrowers can be suspended on their timeline to loan forgiveness and at risk of falling behind and facing collection activity.

‘The opposite of government efficiency’

In the May court document, the Education Department disclosed that more than 1.98 million IDR applications remained pending as of the end of April. Only roughly 79,000 requests had been approved or denied during that month.

Consumer advocates slammed the findings.

“This filing confirms what borrowers have known for months: Their applications for loan relief have effectively been going into a void,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, legal director at the Student Borrower Protection Center.

The Center said that if the Education Department continued to move at its current rate, it would take more than two years to process the existing applications.

AFT President Randi Weingarten called the backlog “outrageous and unacceptable.”

“This is the opposite of government efficiency,” Weingarten said. “Millions of borrowers are being denied their legal right to an affordable repayment option.”

What’s behind the backlog

A spokesperson for the Education Dept. blamed the backlog on the Biden administration, saying that it “failed to process income-driven repayment applications for borrowers, artificially masking rising delinquency and default rates and promising illegal student loan forgiveness to win points with voters.”

“The Trump Administration is actively working with federal student loan servicers and hopes to clear the Biden backlog over the next few months,” they said.

The Biden administration put the student loan borrowers who’d enrolled in its new IDR plan, SAVE, into an interest-free forbearance while the GOP-led legal challenges to the program unfolded. Many of the currently pending IDR requests are likely from borrowers who are trying to leave that blocked plan to get into an available one.

Sarah Sattlemeyer, a project director at New America and senior advisor under the Biden administration, said that the current backlog began last year “and has existed across both the Biden and Trump administrations” as a result of the legal battle over the SAVE plan.

“It is a demonstration of how complicated the loan system is, how much uncertainty there has been over the last few years and what is at stake,” Sattlemeyer said. “There also isn’t clarity around how some applications in the backlog should or will be handled, such as those where a borrower chose an option that no longer exists on the application.”

Student loan default collection restarting

In recent months, the Trump administration has terminated around half of the Education Department’s staff, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers.

That is also likely one reason why so many of the applications haven’t been processed, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

“Perhaps the reduction in staff is affecting their ability to process the forms,” Kantrowitz said.

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Student loan delinquencies risk ‘spillovers’ to other debts, NY Fed

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Student loan default collection restarting

The Trump administration’s resumption of collection efforts on defaulted federal student loans has far-reaching consequences for delinquent borrowers.

For starters, borrowers who are in default may have wages, tax returns and Social Security payments garnished.

But involuntary collections could also have a “spillover effect,” which puts consumers at risk of falling behind on other debt repayments, according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,

As collection activity restarts, disposable income falls

‘It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things’

Until earlier this month, the Department of Education had not collected on defaulted student loans since March 2020. After the Covid pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments expired in September 2023, the Biden administration offered borrowers another year in which they would be shielded from the impacts of missed payments. That on-ramp officially ended on Sept. 30, 2024, and the Education Department restarted collection efforts on defaulted student loans on May 5.

Whether borrowers face garnishment, or opt to resume payments to get current on their loan, that’s likely to have a significant impact on their wallet.

“It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. 

After the five-year pause ended and collections are resumed, the delinquency rate for student loan balances spiked, the New York Fed found. Nearly 8% of total student debt was reported as 90 days past due in the first quarter of 2025, compared to less than 1% in the previous quarter.

Currently, around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans and roughly 5.3 million borrowers are in default, according to the Education Department. Another 4 million borrowers are in “late-stage delinquency,” or over 90 days past due on payments.

Among borrowers who are now required to make payments — not including those who are in deferment or forbearance or are currently enrolled in school — nearly one in four student loan borrowers are behind in their payments, the New York Fed found.  

As borrowers transition out of forbearance and into repayment, those borrowers may also face challenges making payments, according to a separate research note by Bank of America. “This transition will likely drive delinquencies and defaults on student loans higher and could have further knock-on effects for consumer finance companies,” Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia wrote to clients on May 15.

In a blog post, the New York Fed researchers noted that “it is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.”

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