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High inflation and interest rates are coming at a bad time for Biden

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The booming economy is exacerbating a key vulnerability for President Biden heading into the height of campaign season, as inflation and interest rates could remain higher until deep into the final weeks of the presidential election.

Fresh data this week shows inflation picked up again in March, in the latest sign that the economy is overheating. Unexpectedly strong job growth, wages and consumer spending are a plus for most Americans but bad for inflation. The higher inflation reading makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates — and mortgage rates — elevated until late in the year, possibly until days after the election, eluding much political gain for Biden.

“It’s really a case of bad luck,” said Karen Dynan, a professor at Harvard University and former Treasury Department chief economist. “The Biden administration has made some big strides but it’s up against one of the most disruptive economies in decades. Rate cuts would be a welcome development for a lot of people, but the prospects for cuts have really changed given what’s happening with inflation.”

Gasoline prices, in particular, have always played an outsize role in how Americans feel about the economy. The average gallon of gas has been creeping up in the past two months to $3.63 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA. Fears of rising prices could already be weighing on Americans anew, as consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly in April, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.

A booming economy can fuel inflation if spending is so robust that consumers are willing to pay ever-higher prices for goods and services. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and so far Americans have been more than happy to splurge on services like dining out, travel and hotel stays, despite inflation. That’s forced businesses to ramp up hiring — and raise wages — which in turn pushes prices even higher.

Biden aides point out that the current inflation reading, at 3.5 percent, is below what it was at similar points in President Bill Clinton’s and President Ronald Reagan’s tenures, when year-on-year inflation was at 3.6 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively. Both went on to win reelection.

“Our agenda to lower costs on behalf of working families is as urgent today as it was yesterday,” said Jared Bernstein, chair of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers. “We’re just going to keep our heads down and continue fighting to lower costs from prescription drugs to junk fees to housing and child care.”

For much of his presidency, Biden has struggled with his message on the economy. When inflation first started to beset the country in the months after the pandemic, the president and his team settled on describing it as “transitory,” trying to signal to voters that the spike was temporary and would subside. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the White House started using the phrase “Putin’s price hike,” blaming the war for rising gas prices.

As inflation dropped, Biden try to rebrand “Bidenomics,” originally used derisively by conservative media, in an attempt to gain credit from voters for a booming job market and growing economy. But as economists have struggled to explain the topsy-turvy economy after covid, Biden has struggled, too.

The president and his aides have been frustrated that they have not received more credit for avoiding a recession and passing massive legislation, specifically the infrastructure law and the CHIPS Act, which will transform the United States’ roads and bridges and turbocharge a domestic semiconductor industry. Aides have been divided over how to sell Biden’s legislative accomplishments while many Americans say they are having trouble affording groceries and other household items.

That dispute spilled into public view this week after Politico published audio of former White House chief of staff Ron Klain, who remains close to Biden, criticizing the White House’s economic messaging. During a conference, Klain said Biden spends too much time touting new bridges and not enough on rising prices.

The White House says Biden can, and must, do both.

“He understands what the Americans are facing,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters this week when asked about Klain’s comments. “And he’s talked at almost every — every event that he’s had — crisscrossing the country after the State of the Union — about lowering costs, how important it is, and how there’s more work to do. You hear that.”

On Saturday, the White House put out a new memo on the economy, debuting a message centered on Trump, warning that if he’s reelected inflation would climb higher.

“While President Biden’s vision for economic growth is based on strengthening the middle class, lowering prices, and defeating inflation, MAGAnomics is the opposite – a recipe for supercharging inflation and costs for the middle-class with policies that put the wealthy above everyone else,” Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, wrote in the memo.

But, as inflation heats back up, the White House is under renewed pressure to quell Americans’ economic anxieties. Stock markets tumbled this week as investors realized a rate-cut was no longer imminent.

Bank of America this week said it does not expect the Fed to begin scaling back on interest rates until December, six months later than its original forecast. “We no longer think policymakers will gain the confidence they need to start cutting in June,” Michael Gapen, the bank’s U.S. economist said in an analyst note. It also expects the Fed to cut less than it had previously thought.

The president this week took the unusual step of commenting on the Fed’s next move, saying he stands by his prediction that the central bank will cut rates by the end of the year. Biden has generally been careful to keep his distance from the Fed, saying he respects the central bank’s independence.

In a twist, the election itself could delay the Fed’s plans. Investors generally expect the central bank to steer clear of policy changes in the lead-up to the presidential race, out of concern that it could be seen favoring one candidate over another.

“It’s hard to imagine the Fed cutting rates aggressively before November,” said Glenn Hubbard, a professor at Columbia Business School who served as an economic adviser to President George W. Bush. “I just don’t see it happening — that’s not a political judgment, it’s just arithmetic.”

Inflation, which peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, has come down dramatically since then, with meaningful drops in just about every category of goods and services. In some cases, big-ticket items like cars, furniture and appliances, have actually gotten cheaper in the past year.

But in recent months, progress has petered out. Inflation picked up in March — with prices up 3.5 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.2 percent increase the month before. A range of basics — including car insurance, women’s coats, pork chops and visits to the vet — were about 3 percent more expensive than they were in February.

Chad Barrett, 36, who owns a solar-panel business in West Palm Beach, Fla., says inflation and high borrowing costs have forced him to reconsider his vote for Biden. Barrett, a lifelong Democrat who once campaigned for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), plans to cast a “protest vote,” either for a third-party candidate or a write-in.

Until this week, Barrett had been hopeful that the Fed would start lowering interest rates in the next couple of months, offering some relief. But that seems unlikely now — which means he’s already getting notices from lenders that his borrowing costs will go up soon.

“All I hear is, ‘This economy is great, it’s amazing,’ but I’m a millennial who doesn’t own a home and everything is going up in cost,” he said. “It’s a mix of disappointment and frustration.”

In his rematch against former president Donald Trump, Biden has increasingly tried to contrast his economic record with Trump’s.

“We’re in a situation where we’re better situated than we were when we took office where we — inflation was skyrocketing,” Biden said at a news conference Wednesday. “And we have a plan to deal with it, whereas the opposition — my opposition talks about two things. They just want to cut taxes for the wealthy and raise taxes on other people. And so, I think they’re — they have no plan. Our plan is one I think is still sustainable.”

As the president struggles to connect on the economy, though, his campaign is eager to focus on the issue of abortion. Democrats have found electoral success since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, and they are spending millions of dollars to remind voters that Trump was the architect of that decision. As states around the country institute even more restrictive abortion bans, Democrats are optimistic the issue will outweigh the economy for core Democratic base voters, but also potentially disaffected Republicans.

In Fultonville, N.Y., Pam Marshall and her community have been hit hard by rising prices. But the single mom, who left the Republican Party after the Jan. 6 attack, says abortion rights take precedence over economic issues. She plans to vote for Biden in November.

“Everyone here is struggling — I’m giving money to my son and his family, I see folks standing in line at the food bank,” said Marshall, an IT project manager. “But we need a functional government.”

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Why tax-loss harvesting can be easier with ETFs

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Izusek | E+ | Getty Images

Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.

The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

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After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.

“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.

That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.

In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

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Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.

When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule.

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Older voters prioritized personal economic issues on Election Day: AARP

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Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.

Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new post-election poll released by the AARP.

Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive Congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by two percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.

Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by seven points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by two points.

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The AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.

Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.

Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.

“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.

“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.

For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.

More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

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Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  

Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by two points.  

Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”

“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.

Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Non-financial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.

The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.

“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.

For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to the AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.

Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.

“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Here’s what to expect on mortgage rates into early 2025

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Pekic | E+ | Getty Images

Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 

Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.

While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.

Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”

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Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, Chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”

Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.

But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.

From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.

If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.

Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.

“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with kids are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz explained. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.

For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 

It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.

Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs like closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refi is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.

If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.

If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said.

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