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How 2024 presidential race may influence Social Security

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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are shown on screen during a debate watch party at the Cameo Art House Theatre in Fayetteville, North Carolina, Sept. 10, 2024.

Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

With the Social Security Administration facing a looming funding crisis over the next decade, it’s clear that the next U.S. president — either Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump — is poised to inherit a Social Security dilemma.

Almost 68 million Americans receive Social Security payments every month. The benefits support seniors in their retirement, disabled Americans and survivors of beneficiaries, but the future of the Social Security Administration has been in jeopardy for years.

More than 11,200 Americans are now turning 65 every day. As more retirees start to claim Social Security, there are not enough workers contributing to the program to make up for that increase in benefit payments.

When such a shortfall happens, Social Security turns to its trust funds — money that is set aside to help pay for benefits and other administrative costs.

But the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay retirement benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that time, just 79% of benefits may be payable, according to the program’s trustees.

The average retired worker would see about a $403 cut to their current average monthly benefit of $1,920.

Most Americans rank Social Security as “one of the top” or a “very important” issue that will help determine how they vote in November, a recent CNBC poll found.

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Both presidential candidates — former president Trump and Vice President Harris — have vowed to protect Social Security benefits.

But restoring the program’s solvency will require changes — benefit cuts, tax increases or a combination of both. Yet some experts say the candidates’ discussions have thus far avoided specific details on how to address that shortfall.

“We’re not seeing anyone step up and say, ‘In nine years, our main retirement program is looking at the trust of being insolvent, and that could lead to roughly a 20% benefit cut across the board of everybody,” said Jason Fichtner, chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center and executive director of the Alliance for Lifetime Income’s Retirement Income Institute.

Trump promises no taxes on Social Security benefits

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Coachella, California, U.S., October 12, 2024. 

Mike Blake | Reuters

On the campaign trail, Trump has touted an idea aimed at letting retirees keep more of their Social Security checks — ending taxes on benefits.

“Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security,” Trump wrote on July 31 in all capital letters on social media platform Truth Social.

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found 85% of voters support the idea.

Currently, retirees pay federal income taxes on up to 85% of their benefits, depending on their incomes.

Just how much taxes retirees pay on benefits is based on a formula called combined income, the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of Social Security benefits.

Married couples may pay taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their combined incomes are between $32,000 and $44,000. If their incomes are over $44,000, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxable.

Individuals may be liable for taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their incomes are between $25,000 and $34,000. If they have more than $34,000 in income, up to 85% of their benefits are taxable.

Because those thresholds do not change from year to year, more beneficiaries are paying taxes on their benefit income over time.

Ending taxes on Social Security benefits would move the insolvency date of Social Security’s trust fund closer by over one year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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And it may not make a big difference in retirees’ budgets, according to Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

The median household income for retirees is about $50,000, so the “vast majority” pay very little or nothing in taxes on their Social Security benefits, Gleckman said.

Exempting taxes on benefits would mostly help those with incomes between $63,000 and $200,000, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s research found.

But while the top 20% of households would see an average tax cut of about $1,400 after the elimination of the taxes on Social Security benefits, Gleckman explained, they would see an average tax increase of $6,500 with Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on imports.

“The net effect of what Trump is trying to do, if you look at everything including the tariffs, is probably increased taxes on retirees, even if they do get some benefit from repealing the tax on Social Security benefits,” Gleckman said.

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

Harris wants ‘wealthiest Americans’ to ‘pay their fair share’

Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris looks on as she participates a “town hall” with radio host Charlamagne Tha God, in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., October 15, 2024.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The Harris campaign’s economic plan promises to “shore up Social Security and Medicare so that these essential programs will stay solvent in the long run by making corporations and the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share in taxes.”

In budget proposals and during the State of the Union, President Joe Biden has likewise called for having high earners pay more into the program.

More specific details on how Democratic candidate Harris would restore solvency to the program as president were not available by press time.

Employers and employees each pay 6.2% of wages to Social Security up to a taxable maximum (self-employed individuals pay 12.4%). In 2024, the limit on earnings that are subject to the Social Security payroll tax is $168,600. Top earners with $1 million in gross annual wage income stopped paying into the program as of March 2, according to the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Washington Democrats have proposed reapplying those taxes for earnings over $400,000 or $250,000 in separate proposals, while also potentially raising taxes on investment income. Those tax increases would improve the program’s solvency, while also making certain benefit increases possible, per the proposals.

If Harris holds to the $400,000 threshold set by the Biden administration, her Social Security proposal would have “no impact on the vast majority of households,” according to Gleckman, since around 95% to 98% of households make that amount or less.  

“Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are fighting to lower costs and will always protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare,” campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg said in a statement.

Older Americans may feel effects of reform

As Social Security’s depletion dates get closer, any reform changes would need to phase in more quickly.

And people ages 55 and over — who are typically left out of Social Security reform proposals such as raising the retirement age — may also feel the effects of any changes, according to Fichtner.

“You don’t have a lot of time to change your retirement trajectory once you hit 55,” Fichtner said. “But now that we’re getting so close to trust fund depletion … and the magnitude is so large, I’m not sure we can actually afford from a financial standpoint to hold them harmless.”

Regardless of who is elected, it remains to be seen how much a new president can accomplish on Social Security.

With 60 votes required in the Senate to pass Social Security reform, both parties would have to agree.

Experts say it is possible lawmakers may wait until the last minute to address the issue.

“As you get closer and closer to the insolvency date, it means the benefit reductions have to be steeper and quicker, and it means the tax increases have to be more significant and faster,” Gleckman said. “So it makes it even harder.”

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Neodesha, Kansas offers incentives to entice people to move there

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Field of wheat in central Kansas is nearly ready for harvest.

Ricardo Reitmeyer | Getty Images

With a population of about 2,100, Neodesha, Kansas, is roughly 100 miles from Wichita and Topeka in Kansas and Tulsa, Oklahoma. Its claim to fame is the 65-foot-tall tower that supported the drilling framework for the first commercial oil well west of the Mississippi River, locals say. 

But as an old oil town, Neodesha has struggled with a decreasing population and an aging housing supply for years.

When the refinery formerly owned by Standard Oil Co. closed in 1971, “the population was cut in half over night,” according to Neodesha’s mayor, Devin Johnson.

“We have seen that decline as every small community has over the last 50 years,” Johnson said. “The thing with small communities is, if you are not growing, you are dying.”

Last year, Neodesha partnered with MakeMyMove, an online relocation marketplace that connects workers with communities trying to attract new residents.

Incentives include tax waivers and free college

The town is now offering qualifying new residents incentives — such as waiving state income tax through 2026 along with property tax rebates and help with day care for working parents — as well as access to existing perks, including student loan repayment assistance up to $15,000 and free college tuition through the Neodesha Promise scholarship program.

MakeMyMove, which has worked with 88 communities across the U.S., screens applicants and connects them with local resources.

Since the program launched in 2024, more than 30 people are in the process of moving to Neodesha, according to Evan Hock, MakeMyMove’s co-founder and chief operating officer.

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“We’ve awarded over $1 million in scholarships, and I feel like we are helping the community and making some real progress,” said Ben Cutler, who grew up in Neodesha and now funds the scholarship program, which started in 2020 and is available to any graduate of Neodesha High School in good standing. (Neodesha’s promise program will cover tuition at participating colleges or associate degree programs and vocational schools nationwide.) 

“One of my key focuses was helping build the community, to help in any way I could to make Neodesha a more attractive community for young families, and I think we’re making some real progress in that regard — I certainly hope so anyway,” Cutler said.

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Meanwhile, efforts are also underway to construct hundreds of new homes, apartments and duplexes in the region, along with the development of retail and commercial spaces and the renovation of several historic buildings on Main Street.

“We’ve got to cherish what we’ve got but make sure we make Neodesha an attractive place for people to come,” Johnson said.

These cities will pay you to move there

Other communities across the country have also been upping the ante with cash incentives or voucher programs for people willing to move.

For example, workers relocating to Topeka can receive up to $10,000 for rent for the first year or up to $15,000 to put toward buying a home.

Another program affiliated with the West Virginia Department of Tourism is offering a cash incentive of $12,000 along with access to free coworking spaces and outdoor recreation packages for those who move to the state for at least two years.  

The Shoals Economic Development Authority offers $10,000 in cash to full-time remote employees who are willing to relocate to the Shoals community in northwest Alabama.

“This is a cost-effective way of doing economic development,” said MakeMyMove’s Hock. The communities “usually get a return within the first year.”

However, “incentives are not the reason people actually move,” he said. Affordability is key, he said, but community also plays an important role.

“They are looking for quality of place, they want a community connection, that’s what is motivating the move,” Hock said.

‘A family-friendly place to live’

Kaitlyn and Jack Sundberg with their dogs Max and Bella in front of the home they purchased in Neodesha, Kansas.

Courtesy: Kaitlyn Sundberg

Kaitlyn Sundberg never expected that she would move to Kansas. Sundberg and her husband, Jack, lived in Southern California but struggled to save enough for the down payment on a home of their own.

“We were living with my in-laws, and we were not able to afford anything,” said Sundberg, 27.

Sundberg’s husband, who worked as an estimator for a telecom company, expanded his job search — significantly — and found an opportunity as the program manager for Southeast Kansas Inc.

When they visited Neodesha, “it just seemed like a family-friendly place to live,” Sundberg said.

“We spent a Saturday looking for a house — there were kids riding bikes,” she said, “I just cried.”

The couple moved to Neodesha with their two dogs 18 months ago, even before the incentive program launched. Sundberg now works as the executive director of the new early learning center in town after a neighbor brought over the job posting and suggested she apply for the position.

“Being away from family is the hardest part,” she said, “but I would never want to move back.”

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DOGE actions may cause Social Security benefit ‘interruption’: ex-agency head

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Then Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley testifies before the Senate Committee on the Budget on Sept. 11, 2024.

Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Social Security has never missed a benefit payment since the program first began sending individuals monthly benefits more than eight decades ago.

But the recent actions at the U.S. Social Security Administration by Elon Musk‘s so-called Department of Government Efficiency are putting monthly benefit checks for more than 72.5 million Americans at risk, former commissioner and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley told CNBC.com.

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Ahead of any interruption in benefits, “people should start saving now,” O’Malley said.

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The Social Security Administration uses multiple systems and technologies that Elon Musk has criticized for leading to errors. As commissioner, O’Malley told Congress the agency needed more funding for IT modernization.  

O’Malley said DOGE leaders are now making changes at the agency, and significant staff cuts have already led to system outages. Those intermittent IT outages may happen more frequently and for more extended periods of time until there is a “system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” he said.

Neither the Social Security Administration nor the White House responded to requests for comment by press time.

Social Security Administration leadership upheaval

The Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE, is not a federal department. And Musk, whom President Donald Trump brought on board to implement DOGE, is not an elected official.

Since its establishment, DOGE has looked to slash spending at federal government agencies.

Top Social Security official exits after refusing DOGE access to sensitive data

The cuts have led to leadership upheaval, with the recent resignation of acting commissioner Michelle King following a reported disagreement over DOGE’s access to sensitive data. O’Malley resigned from the Social Security Administration in November to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee, a race which he lost to Minnesota Democrat Ken Martin.

Trump has nominated Frank Bisignano, CEO of financial-technology company Fiserv, to serve as the new commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Bisignano has yet to sit for Senate confirmation hearings.

In the interim, Lee Dudek, who first joined the agency in 2009, has been appointed acting commissioner.

Earlier this month, Dudek posted on LinkedIn that he had been placed on administrative leave from the agency for helping DOGE representatives, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 20.

“Our continuing priority is paying beneficiaries the right amount at the right time, and providing other critical services people rely on from us,” Dudek said in a Feb. 19 statement about his appointment.

Whose benefits may be most at risk

Yet experts say the benefits Americans rely on could be at risk based on the Trump administration’s overhaul of the agency.

“The American public needs to understand that one of their major social safety nets is in dire jeopardy,” said Jill Hornick, a union official at the American Federation of Government Employees Local 1395, which primarily represents Social Security offices in Illinois.

“It’ll take a while for the effects to be felt, but they’re coming,” Hornick said, predicting what will happen to Social Security is going to be “far worse” than the planned cuts to Medicaid.

For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, she said.

On Thursday, the Social Security Administration sent a notice to employees that gives them until March 14 to decide whether to take an early buyout. Unlike a previous January offer, this now includes service employees, and staffing reductions in that area may impact how quickly the agency processes benefit claims and provides other services, Hornick said.

For example, if a woman files for a survivor benefit after her husband passes away, she needs to provide a copy of her marriage license. A Social Security employee then needs to code the system to verify they have seen that document and the applicant is eligible for benefits, Hornick said.

“Not everybody can do things electronically,” particularly the older adults and disabled individuals who the Social Security Administration serves, said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

“If you don’t have people to run an agency that requires hands-on customer service, then of course there’s a risk that you could end up with benefits being either denied or interrupted,” Freese said.

Office closures may reduce access to services

The DOGE savings web page has a list of about 45 Social Security locations where leases will be terminated, according to Rich Couture, spokesperson for AFGE SSA General Committee, a union that represents 42,000 Social Security employees nationally.

The list provides little information on the uses for the locations that are being closed. Based on the square footage listed, they may be sites used to conduct in-person hearings for disability benefits, Couture said. In one case, the location seems to be a busy New York state field office that provides general services, he said.

“If they’re going to close these offices that are busy in highly populated areas, it would suggest to me that there’s no office in this country that would be safe from having a lease terminated, especially in rural areas,” Couture said.

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In a recent statement, Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., said the moves are a “backdoor benefit cut.”

“Let me be clear — laying off half of the workforce at the Social Security Administration and shuttering field offices will mean the delay, disruption and denial of benefits,” Larson said.

In a statement to CNBC.com earlier this week, the Social Security Administration said it has not set any reduction targets, in response to reports it plans to cut 50% of its employees.

As a union, AFGE has been issuing bargaining demands in response to the agency’s recent decisions and plans to enforce employee rights through other methods as necessary, spokesperson Couture said.

While many lawsuits have been filed, it will take time to work through them, especially as the courts are now being flooded with cases tied to the Trump administration’s actions, said Nancy Altman, president of advocacy organization Social Security Works.

The biggest results may come from the pressure American voters could put on elected officials, former SSA commissioner O’Malley said.

“I think many people throughout the country are going to start bringing a lot of heat to members of Congress who have been facilitating, supporting, aiding and abetting the breaking of their Social Security and the interruption of benefits that they work their whole lives to earn,” he said. “These are earned benefits.”

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As the price of bitcoin falls, you can leverage this tax loophole

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Jaque Silva/ | Nurphoto | Getty Images

With the price of bitcoin down from a record high in January, there’s a chance for some investors to score a tax break, experts say.  

Following a post-election rally, the flagship digital currency touched $109,000 on inauguration day before falling in February. As of midday Friday, the price was around $84,000, after dipping below $80,000 overnight, according to Coin Metrics.

The latest selloff presents a tax planning opportunity, including a “loophole” that could go away amid Congressional tax negotiations, according to Andrew Gordon, a tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group.

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The strategy, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” allows you to offset profitable investments by selling declining assets in a brokerage or other taxable account. Once your losses exceed gains, you can subtract up to $3,000 per year from regular income and carry excess losses into future years. 

Some investors wait until December for tax-loss harvesting, which can be a mistake because asset volatility, particularly for digital currency, happens throughout the year, experts say. 

“You should look for these opportunities continually and take advantage of them as they occur,” Gordon said.  

You should look for these opportunities continually and take advantage of them as they occur.

Andrew Gordon

President of Gordon Law Group

The crypto wash sale ‘loophole’ 

When selling investments, there’s a wash sale rule, which blocks you from claiming a loss if you repurchase a “substantially identical” asset within a 30-day window before or after the sale.

But currently, the wash sale rule doesn’t apply to cryptocurrency, which can be beneficial for long-term digital currency investors, experts say.

“If you sell, for instance, bitcoin at a loss today and then buy it back tomorrow, you still have your loss on the books,” Gordon said. “This is an extremely effective strategy for crypto investors because they don’t have to exit their position.”

However, the strategy could disappear in the future as Congressional Republicans seek ways to fund President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda.

Sens. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo. and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., in 2023 reintroduced a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, which included closing the crypto wash sale loophole. Former President Joe Biden‘s fiscal year 2025 budget also included the proposal.

In the meantime, “the IRS gives us this loophole. We may as well take it,” Adam Markowitz, an enrolled agent at Luminary Tax Advisors in Windermere, Florida, previously told CNBC.

Of course, you should always consider your investing goals and timeline before implementing the tax strategy.

Tax Tip: Crypto Assets

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