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How 2024 presidential race may influence Social Security

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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are shown on screen during a debate watch party at the Cameo Art House Theatre in Fayetteville, North Carolina, Sept. 10, 2024.

Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

With the Social Security Administration facing a looming funding crisis over the next decade, it’s clear that the next U.S. president — either Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump — is poised to inherit a Social Security dilemma.

Almost 68 million Americans receive Social Security payments every month. The benefits support seniors in their retirement, disabled Americans and survivors of beneficiaries, but the future of the Social Security Administration has been in jeopardy for years.

More than 11,200 Americans are now turning 65 every day. As more retirees start to claim Social Security, there are not enough workers contributing to the program to make up for that increase in benefit payments.

When such a shortfall happens, Social Security turns to its trust funds — money that is set aside to help pay for benefits and other administrative costs.

But the trust fund Social Security relies on to pay retirement benefits is projected to be depleted in 2033. At that time, just 79% of benefits may be payable, according to the program’s trustees.

The average retired worker would see about a $403 cut to their current average monthly benefit of $1,920.

Most Americans rank Social Security as “one of the top” or a “very important” issue that will help determine how they vote in November, a recent CNBC poll found.

Social Security is a key issue for voters, survey finds: Here’s how to maximize benefits

Both presidential candidates — former president Trump and Vice President Harris — have vowed to protect Social Security benefits.

But restoring the program’s solvency will require changes — benefit cuts, tax increases or a combination of both. Yet some experts say the candidates’ discussions have thus far avoided specific details on how to address that shortfall.

“We’re not seeing anyone step up and say, ‘In nine years, our main retirement program is looking at the trust of being insolvent, and that could lead to roughly a 20% benefit cut across the board of everybody,” said Jason Fichtner, chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center and executive director of the Alliance for Lifetime Income’s Retirement Income Institute.

Trump promises no taxes on Social Security benefits

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Coachella, California, U.S., October 12, 2024. 

Mike Blake | Reuters

On the campaign trail, Trump has touted an idea aimed at letting retirees keep more of their Social Security checks — ending taxes on benefits.

“Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security,” Trump wrote on July 31 in all capital letters on social media platform Truth Social.

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found 85% of voters support the idea.

Currently, retirees pay federal income taxes on up to 85% of their benefits, depending on their incomes.

Just how much taxes retirees pay on benefits is based on a formula called combined income, the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of Social Security benefits.

Married couples may pay taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their combined incomes are between $32,000 and $44,000. If their incomes are over $44,000, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxable.

Individuals may be liable for taxes on up to 50% of their benefits if their incomes are between $25,000 and $34,000. If they have more than $34,000 in income, up to 85% of their benefits are taxable.

Because those thresholds do not change from year to year, more beneficiaries are paying taxes on their benefit income over time.

Ending taxes on Social Security benefits would move the insolvency date of Social Security’s trust fund closer by over one year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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And it may not make a big difference in retirees’ budgets, according to Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

The median household income for retirees is about $50,000, so the “vast majority” pay very little or nothing in taxes on their Social Security benefits, Gleckman said.

Exempting taxes on benefits would mostly help those with incomes between $63,000 and $200,000, the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center’s research found.

But while the top 20% of households would see an average tax cut of about $1,400 after the elimination of the taxes on Social Security benefits, Gleckman explained, they would see an average tax increase of $6,500 with Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on imports.

“The net effect of what Trump is trying to do, if you look at everything including the tariffs, is probably increased taxes on retirees, even if they do get some benefit from repealing the tax on Social Security benefits,” Gleckman said.

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

Harris wants ‘wealthiest Americans’ to ‘pay their fair share’

Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris looks on as she participates a “town hall” with radio host Charlamagne Tha God, in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., October 15, 2024.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The Harris campaign’s economic plan promises to “shore up Social Security and Medicare so that these essential programs will stay solvent in the long run by making corporations and the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share in taxes.”

In budget proposals and during the State of the Union, President Joe Biden has likewise called for having high earners pay more into the program.

More specific details on how Democratic candidate Harris would restore solvency to the program as president were not available by press time.

Employers and employees each pay 6.2% of wages to Social Security up to a taxable maximum (self-employed individuals pay 12.4%). In 2024, the limit on earnings that are subject to the Social Security payroll tax is $168,600. Top earners with $1 million in gross annual wage income stopped paying into the program as of March 2, according to the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Washington Democrats have proposed reapplying those taxes for earnings over $400,000 or $250,000 in separate proposals, while also potentially raising taxes on investment income. Those tax increases would improve the program’s solvency, while also making certain benefit increases possible, per the proposals.

If Harris holds to the $400,000 threshold set by the Biden administration, her Social Security proposal would have “no impact on the vast majority of households,” according to Gleckman, since around 95% to 98% of households make that amount or less.  

“Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are fighting to lower costs and will always protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare,” campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg said in a statement.

Older Americans may feel effects of reform

As Social Security’s depletion dates get closer, any reform changes would need to phase in more quickly.

And people ages 55 and over — who are typically left out of Social Security reform proposals such as raising the retirement age — may also feel the effects of any changes, according to Fichtner.

“You don’t have a lot of time to change your retirement trajectory once you hit 55,” Fichtner said. “But now that we’re getting so close to trust fund depletion … and the magnitude is so large, I’m not sure we can actually afford from a financial standpoint to hold them harmless.”

Regardless of who is elected, it remains to be seen how much a new president can accomplish on Social Security.

With 60 votes required in the Senate to pass Social Security reform, both parties would have to agree.

Experts say it is possible lawmakers may wait until the last minute to address the issue.

“As you get closer and closer to the insolvency date, it means the benefit reductions have to be steeper and quicker, and it means the tax increases have to be more significant and faster,” Gleckman said. “So it makes it even harder.”

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Trump admin seeks Education Department layoff ban lifted

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A demonstrator speaks through a megaphone during a Defend Our Schools rally to protest U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to shut down the U.S. Department of Education, outside its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 21, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Reuters

The Trump administration on Friday asked the Supreme Court to lift a court order to reinstate U.S. Department of Education employees the administration had terminated as part of its efforts to dismantle the agency.

Officials for the administration are arguing to the high court that U.S. District Judge Myong Joun in Boston didn’t have the authority to require the Education Department to rehire the workers. More than 1,300 employees were affected by the mass layoffs.

The staff reduction “effectuates the Administration’s policy of streamlining the Department and eliminating discretionary functions that, in the Administration’s view, are better left to the States,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in the filing.

A federal appeals court had refused on Wednesday to lift the judge’s ruling.

In his May 22 preliminary injunction, Joun pointed out that the staff cuts led to the closure of seven out of 12 offices tasked with the enforcement of civil rights, including protecting students from discrimination on the basis of race and disability.

Meanwhile, the entire team that supervises the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, was also eliminated, the judge said. (Around 17 million families apply for college aid each year using the form, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.)

The Education Dept. announced its reduction in force on March 11 that would have gutted the agency’s staff.

Two days later, 21 states — including Michigan, Nevada and New York — filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for its staff cuts at the agency.

After President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 20 aimed at dismantling the Education Department, more parties sued to save the department, including the American Federation of Teachers.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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Health insurance coverage losses under House GOP tax, spending bill

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Fatcamera | E+ | Getty Images

The House tax and spending bill would push millions of Americans off health insurance rolls, as Republicans cut programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act to fund priorities from President Donald Trump, including almost $4 trillion of tax cuts. 

The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan legislative scorekeeper, projects about 11 million people would lose health coverage due to provisions in the House bill, if enacted in its current form. It estimates another 4 million or so would lose insurance due to expiring Obamacare subsidies, which the bill doesn’t extend.

The ranks of the uninsured would swell as a result of policies that would add barriers to access, raise insurance costs and deny benefits outright for some people like certain legal immigrants.  

The legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” may change as Senate Republicans now consider it. Health care cuts have proven to be a thorny issue. A handful of GOP senators — enough to torpedo the bill — don’t appear to back cuts to Medicaid, for example.

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The bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over a decade, CBO estimates. That’s after cutting more than $900 billion from health care programs during that time, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The cuts are a sharp shift following incremental increases in the availability of health insurance and coverage over the past 50 years, including through Medicare, Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, according to Alice Burns, associate director with KFF’s program on Medicaid and the uninsured.

“This would be the biggest retraction in health insurance that we’ve ever experienced,” Burns said. “That’s makes it really difficult to know how people, providers, states, would react.”

Here are the major ways the bill would increase the number of uninsured.

No population ‘safe’ from proposed Medicaid cuts

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pictured at a press conference after the House narrowly passed a bill forwarding President Donald Trump’s agenda on May 22 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

Federal funding cuts to Medicaid will have broad implications, experts say.

“No population, frankly, is safe from a bill that cuts more than $800 billion over 10 years from Medicaid, because states will have to adjust,” said Allison Orris, senior fellow and director of Medicaid policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The provision in the House proposal that would lead most people to lose Medicaid and therefore become uninsured would be new work requirements that would apply to states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, according to Orris.

The work requirements would affect eligibility for individuals ages 19 to 64 who do not have a qualifying exemption. Affected individuals would need to demonstrate they worked or participated in qualifying activities for at least 80 hours per month.

States would also need to verify that applicants meet requirements for one or more consecutive months prior to coverage, while also conducting redeterminations at least twice per year to ensure individuals who are already covered still comply with the requirements.

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In a Sunday interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said “4.8 million people will not lose their Medicaid coverage unless they choose to do so,” while arguing the work requirements are not too “cumbersome.”

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the work requirements would prompt 5.2 million adults to lose federal Medicaid coverage. While some of those may obtain coverage elsewhere, CBO estimates the change would increase the number of people without insurance by 4.8 million.

Those estimates may be understated because they do not include everyone who qualifies but fails to properly report their work hours or submit the appropriate paperwork if they qualify for an exemption, said KFF’s Burns.

Overall, 10.3 million would lose Medicaid, which would lead to 7.8 million people losing health insurance, Burns said.

Proposal creates state Medicaid funding challenges

Protect Our Care supporters display “Hands Off Medicaid” message in front of the White House ahead of President Trump’s address to Congress on March 4 in Washington, D.C. 

Paul Morigi | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

While states have used health care provider taxes to generate funding for Medicaid, the House proposal would put a stop to using those levies in the future, Orris noted.

Consequently, with less revenue and federal support, states will face the tough choice of having to cut coverage or cut other parts of their state budget in order to maintain their Medicaid program, Orris said.

For example, home and community-based services could face cuts to preserve funding for mandatory benefits like inpatient and outpatient hospital care, she said.

The House proposal would also delay until 2035 two Biden-era eligibility rules that were intended to make Medicaid enrollment and renewal easier for people, especially older adults and individuals with disabilities, Burns said.

States would also have their federal matching rate for Medicaid expenditures reduced if they offer coverage to undocumented immigrants, she said.

Affordable Care Act cuts ‘wonky’ but ‘consequential’

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks about the health care impacts of the Republican budget and policy bill, also known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” during a June 4 news conference in Washington, D.C.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

More than 24 million people have health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces.  

They’re a “critical” source of coverage for people who don’t have access to health insurance at their jobs, including for the self-employed, low-paid workers and older individuals who don’t yet qualify for Medicare, according to researchers at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank.

The House legislation would “dramatically” reduce ACA enrollment — and, therefore, the number of people with insurance — due to the combined effect of several changes rather than one big proposal, wrote Drew Altman, president and chief executive of KFF, a nonpartisan health policy group.

“Many of the changes are technical and wonky, even if they are consequential,” Altman wrote.

Expiring ACA subsidies add to coverage costs

ACA enrollment is at an all-time high. Enrollment has more than doubled since 2020, which experts largely attribute to enhanced insurance subsidies offered by Democrats in the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021 and then extended through 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act.

Those subsidies, called “premium tax credits,” effectively reduce consumers’ monthly premiums. (The credits can be claimed at tax time, or households can opt to get them upfront via lower premiums.)

Congress also expanded the eligibility pool for subsidies to more middle-income households, and reduced the maximum annual contribution households make toward premium payments, experts said. 

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The enhanced subsidies lowered households’ premiums by $705 (or 44%) in 2024 — to $888 a year from $1,593, according to KFF.

The House Republican legislation doesn’t extend the enhanced subsidies, meaning they’d expire after this year.

About 4.2 million people will be uninsured in 2034 if the expanded premium tax credit expires, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“They might just decide not to get [coverage] because they simply can’t afford to insure themselves,” said John Graves, a professor of health policy and medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. 

Coverage will become more expensive for others who remain in a marketplace plan: The typical family of four with income of $65,000 will pay $2,400 more per year without the enhanced premium tax credit, CBPP estimates.

Adding red tape to eligibility, enrollment

More than 3 million people are expected to lose Affordable Care Act coverage as a result of other provisions in the House legislation, CBO projects.

Other “big” changes include broad adjustments to eligibility, said Kent Smetters, professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. 

For example, the bill shortens the annual open enrollment period by about a month, to Dec. 15, instead of Jan. 15 in most states. 

It ends automatic re-enrollment into health insurance — used by more than half of people who renewed coverage in 2025 — by requiring all enrollees to take action to continue their coverage each year, CBPP said.

Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD) (C) speak alongside Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) (L) and Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) (R) outside the White House on June 4, 2025. The Senators met with President Donald Trump to discuss Trump’s “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” and the issues some members within the Republican Senate have with the legislation and its cost.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The bill also bars households from receiving subsidies or cost-sharing reductions until after they verify eligibility details like income, immigration status, health coverage status and place of residence, according to KFF.

Graves says adding administrative red tape to health plans is akin to driving an apple cart down a bumpy road. 

“The bumpier you make the road, the more apples will fall off the cart,” he said. 

Uncapping subsidy repayments

Another biggie: The bill would eliminate repayment caps for premium subsidies. 

Households get federal subsidies by estimating their annual income for the year, which dictates their total premium tax credit. They must repay any excess subsidies during tax season, if their annual income was larger than their initial estimate. 

Current law caps repayment for many households; but the House bill would require all premium tax credit recipients to repay the full amount of any excess, no matter their income, according to KFF.

While such a requirement sounds reasonable, it’s unreasonable and perhaps even “cruel” in practice, said KFF’s Altman.

“Income for low-income people can be volatile, and many Marketplace consumers are in hourly wage jobs, run their own businesses, or stitch together multiple jobs, which makes it challenging, if not impossible, for them to perfectly predict their income for the coming year,” he wrote. 

Curtailing use by immigrants

The House bill also limits marketplace insurance eligibility for some groups of legal immigrants, experts said. 

Starting Jan. 1, 2027, many lawfully present immigrants such as refugees, asylees and people with Temporary Protected Status would be ineligible for subsidized insurance on ACA exchanges, according to KFF.

Additionally, the bill would bar Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients in all states from buying insurance over ACA exchanges.

DACA recipients — a subset of the immigrant population known as “Dreamers” — are currently considered “lawfully present” for purposes of health coverage. That makes them eligible to enroll (and get subsidies and cost-sharing reductions) in 31 states plus the District of Columbia.

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How to review your insurance policy

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PUNTA GORDA – OCTOBER 10: In this aerial view, a person walks through flood waters that inundated a neighborhood after Hurricane Milton came ashore on October 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

It’s officially hurricane season, and early forecasts indicate it’s poised to be an active one.

Now is the time to take a look at your homeowners insurance policy to ensure you have enough and the right kinds of coverage, experts say — and make any necessary changes if you don’t.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane activity during this year’s season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5.

You should pay close attention to your insurance policies.

Charles Nyce

risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University

Hurricanes can cost billions of dollars worth of damages. Experts at AccuWeather estimate that last year’s hurricane season cost $500 billion in total property damage and economic loss, making the season “one of the most devastating and expensive ever recorded.”

“Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, said in the agency’s report.

Part of your checklist should include reviewing your insurance policies and what coverage you have, according to Charles Nyce, a risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University. 

“Besides being ready physically by having your radio, your batteries, your water … you should pay close attention to your insurance policies,” said Nyce.

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You want to know four key things: the value of property at risk, how much a loss could cost you, whether you’re protected in the event of flooding and if you have enough money set aside in case of emergencies, he said.

Bob Passmore, the department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, agreed: “It’s really important to review your policy at least annually, and this is a good time to do it.”

Insurers often suspend policy changes and pause issuing new policies when there’s a storm bearing down. So acting now helps ensure you have the right coverage before there’s an urgent need.

Here are three things to consider about your home insurance policy going into hurricane season, according to experts.

1. Review your policy limits

2. Check your deductibles

Take a look at your deductibles, or the amount you have to pay out of pocket upfront if you file a claim, experts say.

For instance, if you have a $1,000 deductible on your policy and submit a claim for $8,000 of storm coverage, your insurer will pay $7,000 toward the cost of repairs, according to a report by NerdWallet. You’re responsible for the remaining $1,000.

A common way to lower your policy premium is by increasing your deductibles, Passmore said. 

Raising your deductible from $1,000 to $2,500 can save you an average 12% on your premium, per NerdWallet’s research.

But if you do that, make sure you have the cash on hand to absorb the cost after a loss, Passmore said.

Why the U.S. has a home insurance crisis

Don’t stop at your standard policy deductible. Look over hazard-specific provisions such as a wind deductible, which is likely to kick in for hurricane damage.

Wind deductibles are an out-of-pocket cost that is usually a percentage of the value of your policy, said Nyce. As a result, they can be more expensive than your standard deductible, he said. 

If a homeowner opted for a 2% deductible on a $500,000 house, their out-of-pocket costs for wind damages can go up to $10,000, he said.

“I would be very cautious about picking larger deductibles for wind,” he said.

3. Assess if you need flood insurance

Floods are usually not covered by a homeowners insurance policy. If you haven’t yet, consider buying a separate flood insurance policy through the National Flood Insurance Program by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or through the private market, experts say. 

It can be worth it whether you live in a flood-prone area or not: Flooding causes 90% of disaster damage every year in the U.S., according to FEMA.

In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused massive flooding in mountainous areas like Asheville in Buncombe County, North Carolina. Less than 1% of households there were covered by the NFIP, according to a recent report by the Swiss Re Institute. 

If you decide to get flood insurance with the NFIP, don’t buy it at the last minute, Nyce said. There’s usually a 30-day waiting period before the new policy goes into effect. 

“You can’t just buy it when you think you’re going to need it like 24, 48 or 72 hours before the storm makes landfall,” Nyce said. “Buy it now before the storms start to form.” 

Make sure you understand what’s protected under the policy. The NFIP typically covers up to $250,000 in damages to a residential property and up to $100,000 on the contents, said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.

If you expect more severe damage to your house, ask an insurance agent about excess flood insurance, Nyce said.

Such flood insurance policies are written by private insurers that cover losses over and above what’s covered by the NFIP, he said.

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