Personal Finance
How climate change is reshaping home insurance costs in the U.S.
Burned trees from the Palisades Fire and dust blown by winds are seen from Will Rogers State Park, with the City of Los Angeles in the background, in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood on Jan. 15, 2025 in Los Angeles, California.
Apu Gomes | Getty Images
Insurance premiums were surging well before this year’s massive wildfires in the Los Angeles area.
Now, they are set to rise even higher as the L.A. wildfires could become the costliest blaze in U.S. history, analysts say.
The insured losses may cost more than $20 billion, according to estimates by JPMorgan and Wells Fargo.
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For California residents, the increased frequency and severity of natural disasters has had a direct impact on homeowners insurance costs, a trend that is now even more likely to accelerate.
“In the short term, insurance regulators need to allow for risk-based pricing,” Patrick Douville, vice president of global insurance and pension ratings at Morningstar, said in a statement. “This means that premiums are likely to increase, and affordability issues will continue, potentially affecting property values and leaving some homeowners without insurance.”
California’s Department of Insurance also recently passed regulations that pave the way for rate increases in exchange for increased coverage in wildfire-prone regions. In 2024, some insurance companies in the state hiked rates as much as 34%, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
While it’s too early to predict how the fires in Southern California will directly impact the bottom line, filing one fire claim can increase premiums by 29%, on average, and two claims could boost premiums by 60%, according to a 2024 analysis by Insure.com.
Going forward, premiums are almost guaranteed to go up as insurers attempt to cover their costs, according to Janet Ruiz, a director at the Insurance Information Institute and the organization’s California representative.
“We have to take in enough money in premiums to pay out the claims,” she said.
But even for homeowners outside of California, worsening extreme weather means higher insurance rates are on the way.
How disasters affect can costs in other states
The rest of the nation also wants to know: Will my insurance premiums be increasing? According to Ruiz, the short answer is no.
“Homeowners and business owners in one state do not pay insurance premiums based on losses or catastrophes in other states,” she said.
Because each state has a department of insurance that regulates rates in that region, there are protections in place to prevent that from happening, Ruiz said.
And yet, even though insurance premiums are subject to extensive regulations at the state level, when insurers cannot adjust rates in highly regulated states, they do compensate by raising rates in less-regulated states — despite protections in place — leading to “a growing disconnect between insurance rates and risk,” according to a 2021 paper by economists at Harvard Business School, Columbia Business School and Federal Reserve Board.
“Our findings call into question the sustainability of the current regulatory system, especially if natural disasters become more frequent or severe,” the authors wrote.
“Many insurance companies operate nationwide, or at least in multiple states,” said Holden Lewis, mortgage and real estate expert at NerdWallet.
“They are going to make up for their losses somewhere,” Lewis said.
In the wake of the wildfires, Michael Barrett, co-principal at Barrett Insurance Agency in St Johnsbury Vermont, where state insurance regulations are looser, said he has fielded lots of calls from clients asking about whether their premium will rise — “and the real true answer is it could,” he said.
“From an insurance perspective, an increase in natural disasters will impact insurance going forward,” Barrett said.
Vermont is not immune from its own extreme weather lately.
“We had incredible rains with severe flooding,” Barrett said. “It’s something that’s very concerning as we see the reliance on insurance elevated through these events.”
Extreme weather is a problem nationwide
What has happened in California underscores what could happen in other parts of the country as well, partly due to increased climate concerns.
Last year, 27 different natural disasters, from wildfires to winter storms, cost $1 billion each, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found.
Nearly half of all homes in the U.S. are now at risk of severe or extreme damage from environmental threats, according to a separate Realtor.com report.
Annual premiums are heading higher
In part because of escalating weather-related risks, home insurance rates jumped 33.8% between 2018 and 2023, rising 11.3% in 2023 alone, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
A working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found an even sharper 33% increase in average premiums just between 2020 and 2023 and that climate-exposed households will face $700 higher annual premiums by 2053.
The national average cost of home insurance is now $2,181 a year, on average, for a policy with a $300,000 dwelling limit, or about $182 per month, according to Bankrate.
What each homeowner pays depends on the home as well as the city, state and proximity to areas prone to floods, earthquakes or wildfires, among other factors, experts say.
But generally, all of those factors have caused costs to go up across the board, including the impact of extreme weather and the rising costs of repairing or rebuilding.
Rising repair costs also play a role
Especially since the pandemic, the cost of rebuilding has risen significantly and continues to increase.
“That same home that might have cost $166 a square foot to rebuild now costs easily $300, and that’s if you are not doing a lot of frills,” Barrett said.
“When people renew their insurance policies, they might just renew the same maximum payout,” said NerdWallet’s Lewis. “A lot of homeowners are not even thinking about that.”
But because repairing damaged homes has become much more expensive, that can cause homeowners to be underinsured, leaving them vulnerable to substantial losses.
Homeowners are likely underinsured
Lewis advises homeowners to get an updated estimate on how much would it cost to rebuild if the home was destroyed in a fire or other natural disaster by asking an insurance agent or local contractor.
“You want to be insured for that amount,” he explained.
You also want to have the right kinds of coverage.
For example, a recent report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found that hundreds of thousands of homeowners are likely underinsured against the risk of flooding. Since homeowners and renters insurance policies don’t cover flood damage, that requires a separate flood insurance policy.
According to the consumer watchdog, the flood risk exposure of the mortgage market “is more extensive and more geographically dispersed than previously understood.”
Homeowners near inland streams and rivers, specifically, were less likely to have flood insurance or other financial resources to draw on to recover from a flood and “are most at risk of suffering catastrophic loss.” The report was based on a sample of mortgage applications from 2018-2022.
“I encourage people every year, when you get your renewal notice, look at that rebuilding amount and ask a contractor the average cost per square foot to rebuild,” Ruiz said. “People didn’t to pay much attention to their insurance but it’s important to understand if you need more or less — most people need more.”
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday.
In what could be Jerome Powell’s last as chair before President Donald Trump’s yet-to-be-confirmed nominee Kevin Warsh takes the helm, central bankers maintained the federal funds rate in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Inflation has surged since the war with Iran began, leaving policymakers with limited room to act, according to Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We’re in a kind of suspended animation — between Iran and the Fed transition,” Snaith said.
Before the oil shock, inflation was holding above the Fed’s 2% target but not worsening. Now the jump in energy costs could have longer-term inflationary effects, economists say.
For Americans struggling in the face of higher gas prices and overall affordability challenges, the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged does little to ease budgetary pressures. “The cavalry isn’t coming anytime soon,” Snaith said.
How the Fed decision impacts you
The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on many consumer borrowing and savings rates.
Short-term rates are more closely pegged to the prime rate, which is typically 3 percentage points above the federal funds rate. Longer-term rates, such as home loans, are more influenced by inflation and other economic factors.
Credit cards
Most credit cards have a short-term rate, so they track the Fed’s benchmark.
After the Fed cut rates three times in the second half of 2025, the average annual percentage rate has stayed just under 20%, according to Bankrate.
“Without Fed rate cuts, there’s not much reason to expect meaningful declines anytime soon, so carrying a balance will remain very expensive,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
Mortgage rates
Fixed mortgage rates, on the other hand, don’t directly track the Fed but typically follow the lead of long-term Treasury rates.
Concerns about how the Iran war will impact the U.S. economy have already pushed the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage up to 6.38% as of Tuesday, from 5.99% at the end of February, according to Mortgage News Daily.
That leaves homeowners with existing low mortgage rates “feeling stuck,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “Mortgages, more than any other credit type, work on a churn,” she said, referring to how a dip in rates can boost borrowing activity.
Student loans
Federal student loan rates are also fixed and based in part on the 10-year Treasury note, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic uncertainty.
Current interest rates on undergraduate federal student loans made through June 30 are 6.39%, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year note.
Car loans
Auto loan rates are tied to several factors, including the Fed’s benchmark. Because financing costs remain elevated, new car buyers are taking on longer loans to keep their monthly payments manageable, according to the latest data from Edmunds.
Even so, with the rate on a five-year new car loan near 7%, the average monthly payment on a new car rose to $773 in the first quarter of 2026, an all-time high.
“Car buyers are in a tough spot right now because they’re getting squeezed from both ends: high sticker prices and high interest rates, with neither showing any signs of letting up,” said Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at Edmunds.
“Until the rate picture shifts, buyers will keep stretching loan terms to make payments work, which only adds to the total cost of ownership down the road,” Yoon said.
Savings rates
While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated with changes in the target federal funds rate. So, although rates on certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts have fallen from recent highs, they are holding above the annual rate of inflation.
For now, top-yielding online savings accounts and one-year CD rates pay around 4%, according to Bankrate.
“Yields on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit are down from their peaks of a few years ago, but they’re still strong compared to what we’ve seen for most of the past decade,” Schulz said.
Milan Markovic | E+ | Getty Images
The average tax refund is 11.2% higher this season, compared with about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of April 10, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,397, up from $3,055 about one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 114 million individual returns received, out of about 164 million expected through Tax Day. Next week’s filing update is expected to include data through the April 15 deadline.
President Donald Trump‘s 2025 legislation, rebranded to the “working families tax cuts,” was a key talking point for Republicans on Tax Day.
With the November midterm elections approaching and Republicans defending slim majorities in Congress, many GOP lawmakers have highlighted Trump’s tax breaks and higher average refunds.
Meanwhile, affordability has been top of mind for many Americans amid rising costs of gas, electricity, food and other living expenses.
For filers who expected a refund this season, nearly one-quarter, or 23%, planned to use the funds to pay down credit card debt, and the same share said they would save the payment, according to the CNBC and SurveyMonkey Quarterly Money Survey, released in April. It polled 3,494 U.S. adults at the end of March.
Who benefited from Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’
“It’s been a great tax season for the American people,” many of whom have benefited from Trump’s tax breaks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a White House press briefing on Wednesday.
More than 53 million filers claimed at least one of Trump’s “signature new tax cuts” — the deductions for tip income, overtime earnings, seniors and auto loan interest — the Department of the Treasury also announced on Wednesday.
Those filers, who claimed the deductions on Schedule 1-A, have seen an average tax cut of over $800, according to the Treasury. Tax cuts can trigger a higher refund or reduce taxes owed, depending on the filer’s situation.
Some filers who itemize tax breaks have also seen benefits from the bigger federal deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT. Trump’s legislation raised that cap to $40,000, up from $10,000, for 2025.
The latest SALT deduction limit change is expected to primarily benefit higher earners, according to a May 2025 analysis of various proposals from the Tax Foundation.
The Treasury has not released data on how many filers have claimed the SALT deduction during the 2026 filing season.
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026.
NYSE
U.S. stocks climbed to record highs on Thursday against a backdrop of war, an oil supply shock and economic forecasts warning of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict.
Many investors may be thinking: Why?
Largely, it’s because the stock market is a barometer of what investors think will happen in the future, rather than an assessment of the present day, according to economists and market analysts.
Investors are essentially shrugging off the Middle East conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly, they said.
“The stock market isn’t trying to price what’s happening today,” said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “The stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to 12 months from now.”
Why stocks have been ‘resilient’
The S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, fell about 8% in the initial weeks of the Iran war, from the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 to a recent low on March 30.
But stocks have rebounded since then, erasing all losses since the beginning of the war. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Thursday — about 11% higher than its nadir at the end of March. That followed a record close on Wednesday.
“The market has remained very resilient in the face of the war and has rallied strongly on the prospect that it will be resolved,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
A ship waits to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is conditional on the opening of the strait, in Oman on April 8, 2026.
Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images
And while investors cheered the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict, the temporary ceasefire has appeared tenuous, with the U.S. and Iran each accusing the other of breaking the agreement.
Nations haven’t been able to reach a peace deal ahead of the ceasefire’s end. Vice President JD Vance said U.S. officials left peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend after the Iranian delegation refused to agree to American demands not to develop a nuclear weapon.
The markets ‘have memory’
Ultimately, the stock market is signaling a collective belief that tensions will ratchet down, the war will end in the near term and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize, economists said.
That’s largely because investors have been conditioned to believe that President Donald Trump will back off if the economic pain becomes too intense, economists said — the so-called “TACO” trade, shorthand for “Trump always chickens out.”
“Investors strongly believe — and have been conditioned to believe — he’s going to stand down, find a way to pivot, declare victory and move on,” Zandi said.
Trump has pushed back on the notion of backing down, framing his brinkmanship as a savvy negotiating tactic.
Economists pointed to a recent example of this dynamic: in April 2025 during so-called liberation day, when the Trump administration levied a host of tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
Within days — after the stock market had cratered more than 12% — Trump announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs. Stocks then saw one of their biggest daily rallies in history following Trump’s reversal.
Investors remember that Trump often de-escalates geopolitical shocks — which is why they’ve seized on positive headlines that hint at progress in peace talks, for example, Seydl said.
“The markets have memory,” Seydl said.
AI stocks and the ‘tech boom’
Traders celebrating at the New York Stock Exchange on April 15, 2026, as the S&P 500 closed above the 7,000 level for the first time.
NYSE
There are other factors underpinning market resilience during wartime, economists said.
One is the investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and technology stocks, which account for almost half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, Zandi said.
“Those stocks run on their own dynamic independent of anything, including the war in Iran,” Zandi said. “I think we would have been down a lot more and it would have been harder for us to recover had it not been for the very, very optimistic perspectives on AI.”
We’re in the middle of a “tech boom” — and investors are likely to remain optimistic until they think the tech cycle has run its course, Seydl said.
More broadly, stock investors are essentially making a bet on the future earnings growth of a company — and the earnings backdrop has been “pretty solid,” Seydl said.
Consumer spending appears to be stable, for example, economists said. And companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the GOP’s so-called “big beautiful bill,” which, among other things, made it easier to write off investments upfront and therefore reduce their tax liability, Zandi said.
Going forward
Experts said there will be an economic hit from the Iran war, though.
“Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, wrote Tuesday.
A protracted conflict risks deep and global economic pain, he wrote.
Even if the conflict is short-lived — as the broad market expects — stocks are unlikely to march much higher until it’s clear the U.S. is on the other side of the war and its economic fallout, Zandi said.
If investors are incorrect, and President Trump doesn’t back down or quickly extricate the U.S. from the war, the stock market may see a “full-blown correction” or worse, Zandi said. A stock market correction is a decline of at least 10% from recent highs.
“Everyone thinks they know what the script is,” Zandi said. “Now they just need to follow the script. If they don’t, the market will have some real problems.”
The uncertainty provides yet another example of why the average investor with a long time horizon should stick to their investment plan and ignore the noise, experts said.
“Trying to time the market is very difficult if not impossible for the average investor,” Seydl said. “It’s better to take a long-term perspective and ride out bouts of volatility.”
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