Finance
How Fed rate cut hopes clashed with slowing jobs growth
Published
8 months agoon
The stock market kicked off the historically tough month of September on a rocky note as Wall Street speculated about the magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Initially, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time intraday highs Friday morning as investors digested a slower-than-expected August jobs growth . The weak data bolstered the case for the central bank to cut rates 25 basis points later this month, and as many as two more similar moves before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.1% to its lowest level since April. The “bad news is good news trade” was on. Shortly after the open, however, the market reversed lower as those rate cut hopes were overshadowed by concerns about the pace of the slowing labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 last month, versus the 75,000 expected, while July was revised up to a still tepid 79,000, and June was revised to show a loss of 13,000. While the S & P 500 and Nasdaq each closed Friday’s session slightly lower, both still managed to post gains of nearly 0.3% and more than 1%, respectively, for the week. .SPX .IXIC 5D mountain S & P 500 and Nasdaq 1 week Jim Cramer was not bothered by the market swings, saying Club name Home Depot is about to go even higher. “That’s what you buy right here, right now,” he said on Friday. Lower borrowing costs should be a catalyst for Home Depot shares because its business is heavily tied to a recovery in the housing sector. Home Depot stock has already been on the upswing since mid-June as rate cut expectations ramped up through the summer. Jim thinks the bond market might actually cooperate this time when the Fed starts cutting rates again — unlike last year, when bond yields, and subsequently mortgage rates, rose after 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts. So far, it looks promising, with the national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping by 16 basis points to 6.29%, its biggest single-day drop in more than a year. It wasn’t just monetary policy on the minds of investors. Corporate earnings were, too, including two of our holdings: Salesforce and Broadcom . The biggest earnings story of the week was Broadcom. Shares of the custom chipmaker gained over 9% on Friday after a blowout quarter the night before. Wall Street celebrated Broadcom’s upbeat guidance, CEO Hock Tan’s revelation about $10 billion in custom AI-related orders from a new customer, which analysts speculated might be OpenAI, and Tan saying he’s staying on as CEO “at least” through 2026. For the week, Broadcom was our biggest gainer, up 12.6%. AVGO YTD mountain Broadcom YTD “Broadcom’s great quarter, solid guide, and the CEO remarks on the call all pointed to sustained strong demand for artificial intelligence semiconductors and networking solutions, housed in the company’s AI solutions segment,” Zev Fima, a portfolio analyst for the Club, wrote in Thursday evening’s earnings analysis. “VMWare, the software giant Broadcom bought for $69 billion nearly two years ago, continues to power the company’s infrastructure software segment.” The Club raised its Broadcom price target to $350 from $290, and reiterated our hold-equivalent 2 rating . On Friday, Zev summed it up : “Taken together, it’s clear that despite all the hoopla about an artificial intelligence spending bubble, we’ve not yet seen the peak in AI demand when it comes to the real-deal players in the space.” Salesforce released a better-than-expected second-quarter report Wednesday evening. Although the company posted a beat on the top and bottom line, worries about a soft third-quarter revenue guide weighed on shares after the release. The stock dropped nearly 5% on Thursday but recovered more than half that on Friday. For the week, it lost just over 2%. CRM YTD mountain Salesforce YTD On earnings night, the Club lowered our price target to $300 from $350 due to the ongoing concerns around Salesforce’s growth trajectory. We did, however, maintain our 2 rating on the stock. After all, Salesforce’s suite of AI tools, dubbed Agentforce, could still boost topline performance, and management’s cost discipline could help margins over time. “However, the results here aren’t enough to silence the bears who believe the traditional seat-based software-as-a-service business model has peaked and is being disrupted by advancements in AI. It’s disappointing to continue to wait, but we’re not ready to jump ship on this small position just yet with the stock trading at 22 times forward earnings.” Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the Club, wrote in Wednesday evening’s earnings analysis. Also, in tech news, Apple investors received great news this week, which pushed the Club stock up more than 3%. That’s all because of a favorable ruling in Alphabet’s landmark Google Search antitrust case. Shares of the iPhone maker were on a tear after a federal judge ruled late Tuesday that Alphabet can keep making payments to preload Google Search onto Apple’s flagship devices. AAPL YTD mountain Apple YTD Jim thinks the ruling could unlock billions of additional revenue for Apple. Not only can Apple keep receiving the once estimated $20 billion each year in payments for its Google agreement, but it also opens the door for the tech behemoth to consider similar deals with large language model providers. As in, Apple could get paid for driving traffic to various AI chatbots within its ecosystem. This would be a sizable boost to Apple’s high-margin Services unit, which includes the App Store, Apple TV+, Apple Music, iCloud, and more. “That bot company will have to pay Apple because it’s legal,” Jim said during CNBC’s “Mad Money” on Tuesday. “What a turn of events. Maybe it’s another $20 billion headed Apple’s way. Maybe [it’s] more.” Jim also reiterated his long-held “own, don’t trade” thesis on Apple stock. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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Finance
Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 19, 2026

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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Finance
Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 17, 2026

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
Finance
Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 15, 2026
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.
Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.
“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”
When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.
“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”
The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.
JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.
“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”
‘Attack mode’
Still, the CEO warned that risks extend beyond any single institution, given the interconnected nature of the financial system.
“That doesn’t mean everything that banks rely on is that well protected,” Dimon said. “Banks… are attached to exchanges and all these other things that create other layers of risk.”
JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the industry has long been aware that AI cuts both ways in cybersecurity.
“These tools can make it easier to find vulnerabilities, but then also potentially be deployed by bad actors in attack mode,” Barnum said on the earnings call. Recent advances from Anthropic and others have simply intensified an existing trend, he said.
Dimon also said that while advanced AI tools are important, old-school cybersecurity practices remain essential.
“A lot of it is hygiene… how do you protect your data? How do you protect your networks, your routers, your hardware, changing your passcode?” he said. “Doing all those things right dramatically reduces the risk.”
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday during an earnings call that his bank was testing Mythos, though he declined to comment further.
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