Finance

How much Capital One’s stock would be worth post-Discover deal, per an analyst

Published

2 months ago

March 25, 2025

How much would Capital One’s stock be worth if it completes its blockbuster merger of Discover Financial Services ? The answer, according to one Wall Street firm, is a whole lot more. The news In a Tuesday note, BTIG analysts said they believe shares of Capital One would be worth $427 apiece if the Discover deal is completed — implying eye-popping upside of more than 137% from Monday’s close. The analysts upgraded the stock to a buy rating from hold in the same note. “We see significant earnings power as Capital One fully utilizes Discover’s network to take market share in the prime transactor credit card space,” the analysts wrote. “It has long been a [Discover] investor bull case that Discover has an unpolished diamond in its payments network,” and Capital One’s technology capabilities could help the network better compete against rival operators Visa and Mastercard, the analysts argued. BTIG is upbeat on Capital One’s stock even if the merger, which is awaiting approval from a pair of financial regulators, does not go through. The firm’s price target of $208 a share values the company on a standalone basis and implies about 15% upside from Monday’s close. The primary reason that BTIG still likes Capital One, even on its own, is all the excess capital that the firm has built up since the $35 billion acquisition was announced in February 2024. That could enable Capital One to repurchase $25 billion in stock over the next three years instead, equivalent to 12% of the company, analysts predicted, providing a major lift to earnings per share. Analysts also said that while Capital One is not totally immune to a weakening consumer, its decision to tighten underwriting standards a few years ago was smart and improves its competitive positioning against the likes of American Express and Ally Financial . Shares of Capital One are up nearly 1% Tuesday. COF YTD mountain Capital One Financial (COF) year-to-date performance Big picture BTIG’s optimistic call arrives roughly a week after Capital One’s stock fell in response to an unconfirmed report about the Justice Department’s thinking on the Capital One-Discover merger. The report specifically said the DOJ is concerned about the combined entity’s concentration in the subprime credit cart market. In response, a Capital One spokesperson told CNBC that the deal remains “well-positioned to gain approval” and meets all legal requirements. Citi, KBW and Jefferies all came to the stock’s defense last week, with analysts at each firm still expecting the deal to be completed. Capital One shares have rebounded from that initial sell-off on March 17 and traded above $182 apiece Tuesday — up nearly 6% since March 14, outperforming both the S & P 500 overall and the financial sector in that stretch. The antirust discussion also comes against the backdrop of a legal battle between Capital One and President Donald Trump’s family business. The Trump Organization filed a lawsuit against the credit card lender on March 7, alleging that Capital One violated consumer protections laws by closing its accounts in the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Capital One has said it does not close customer accounts for political reasons. Bottom line We’re quite bullish on Capital One — even if we haven’t thrown out an estimate of what the stock would be worth post-Discover like BTIG has with its $427 figure. Our current price target of $210 a share is pretty close to the firm’s standalone target. The pending Discover deal is a major reason why we first initiated a position in Capital One earlier this month. If completed, Capital One will be able to shift some of its transactions onto Discover’s payments network, reducing what it has to pay out in fees to Mastercard and Visa . “We tell people to hold on with this one,” Jim Cramer said during Tuesday’s Morning Meeting . While it’s encouraging to see BTIG’s positivity on Capital One even as a standalone player, our belief remains that the Discover acquisition will go through. Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank will do whatever it takes to appease regulators if there are, in fact, antitrust concerns. One compromise could include a possible sale of Discover’s subprime portfolio. “They could sell a piece of that business, and because the deal is still so accretive, it just makes sense to do what you can to get the deal to go through,” said Jeff Marks, the Investing Club’s director of portfolio analysis. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long COF. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Screens display the logos and trading information for Capital One Financial and Discover Financial as traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 20, 2024.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: WOOF, TSLA, CRCL, LULU

Published

1 day ago

June 6, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

Swiss government proposes tough new capital rules in major blow to UBS

Published

1 day ago

June 6, 2025

Business Finance News

A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.

Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.

The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.

“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.

The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.

“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.

‘Too big to fail’

UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.

The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.

Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.

At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.

Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.

“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement.

“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”