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How the buzz around Chinese AI model DeepSeek sparked a massive Nasdaq sell-off

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A young Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sparked a massive rout in U.S. technology stocks on Monday as its highly competitive — and potentially shockingly cost-effective — models stoked doubts about the hundreds of billions that America’s biggest companies are spending on artificial intelligence.

DeepSeek’s emergence is shaking up investor confidence in the AI story that has been lifting the U.S. bull market the past two years. It calls into question the hype around Nvidia’s chips and rippled all the way through the market to hit shares of power producers who were set to get a boost from AI data center demand.

Here’s how the DeepSeek-triggered market sell-off on Wall Street unfolded:

New Reasoning Model

DeepSeek was founded in May 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, who partly funded the company by his AI-powered hedge fund. In late December, the AI developer launched a free, open-source large language model that it says took only two months to develop and less than $6 million to build.

On Jan. 20, the Hangzhou, China-based DeepSeek released R1, a reasoning model that outperformed Open AI’s latest o1 in many third-party tests.

DeepSeek is seeking to differentiate from its competitors with its reasoning capabilities, meaning that before delivering the final answer, the model first generates a “chain of thought” to enhance the accuracy of its responses. 

Top-performing Model

The buzz around DeepSeek’s R1 seemingly picked up steam after Alexandr Wang, CEO of ScaleAI, touted its competitiveness against the best products from the U.S. megacap tech giants, which most had thought were leading the AI war.

“What we found is that deep seek, which is the leading Chinese AI Lab, their model, is actually the top performing, or roughly on par with the best American models,” Wang, whose company provides data to help companies train their AI tools, said on CNBC from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last week.

Wang noted that DeepSeek actually has more H100 chips from Nvidia than expected — about 50,000 of them. Those chips are the processor of choice for AI firms in the U.S. such as OpenAI and the U.S. has banned the sale of advanced AI chips to China.

Nvidia shares took a 3% hit on Friday as chatter about DeepSeek started to pick up.

No.1 App

But it wasn’t until the past weekend when the hype surrounding DeepSeek reached a fever pitch on social media.

Marc Andreessen, co-founder and general partner of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, sang DeepSeek’s praises on X, saying the R1 model is “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs” he’s ever seen. Andreessen’s portfolio includes Airbnb and dozens of AI companies.

Tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya on X pointed to DeepSeek’s “very good” report, which said its R1 model “essentially cracked one of the holy grails of AI: getting models to reason step-by-step without relying on massive supervised datasets.”

The Chinese AI app DeepSeek in Apple’s us App Store on an iPhone 12. In the ranking of free apps, DeepSeek was even ahead of ChatGPT from OpenAI. 

Picture Alliance | Getty Images

By this point, DeepSeek’s mobile app surged to the top of Apple’s appstore download charts over the weekend in the U.S., marking a tangible threat to pricier models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

U.S. futures were down big overnight Sunday and investors woke up to a sea of red Monday morning.

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Nasdaq Composite, 1-day

AI darling and chip producer Nvidia saw shares tumbling more than 12% Monday, on track for its worst day since March 2020.

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Nvidia, 1-day

Other chip makers as well as power providers were hit big. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down as much as 3.6% Monday, dragged down by megacap names.

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China needs to boost its tech sector more than ever. How to play it

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Expanding access to private credit

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Alternative investments: Pros and Cons

They’re generally reserved for the ultrawealthy and financial institutions.

But the exchange-traded fund industry is looking to give retail investors more access to alternative investments including private credit.

BondBloxx’s Joanna Gallegos thinks it’s a great idea despite the asset class’ reputation for charging high fees and academic research that have shown sluggish returns. Her firm launched the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) about three months ago.

“We don’t believe in the velvet rope. We believe in connecting markets,” the firm’s co-founder and chief operating officer told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “People have not had access to it. It makes sense in a portfolio. People should have access to … a power tool like that in their portfolio.”

The fund invests around 80% of its holdings in private credit collateralized loan obligations, according to the BondBloxx website. Since its Dec. 3 debut, Gallegos’ fund is up 1%.

While the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq just saw their worst weekly performances since last September, the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF closed virtually flat.

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BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF Performance

Gallegos, who’s the former head of global ETF strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, thinks criticism surrounding alternative investment ETFs will fade.

“We heard the same push back [on] high-yield ETFs: ‘Oh, you can’t price that. It’s too expensive,”‘ she said. “Then, the ETF connected that market in a way that allowed investors to participate, [and] drove the prices down in the category in terms of distributed funds.”

‘Most people don’t need it’

But Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn contends the so-called velvet rope isn’t worth going through. He said skeptical access to alternative investments will provide meaningful benefits to retail investors.

“Most people don’t need it,” the firm’s managing director of ETF and technical strategy said. “If you have a diversified portfolio of five low-cost ETFs, you’re pretty good, right?”

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Powell says Fed is awaiting ‘greater clarity’ on Trump policies before making next move on rates

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Feb. 11, 2025.

Craig Hudson | Reuters

NEW YORK — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank can wait to see how President Donald Trump‘s aggressive policy actions play out before it moves again on interest rates.

With markets nervous over Trump’s proposals for tariffs and other issues, Powell reiterated statements he and his colleagues have made recently counseling patience on monetary policy amid the high level of uncertainty.

The White House “is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation,” he said in a speech for the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. “It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.”

Noting that “uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high” Powell said the Fed is “focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

The comments seem at least somewhat at odds with growing market expectations for interest rate cuts this year.

Markets price in three cuts from the Fed this year

As markets have been roiled by Trump’s shifting positions on his agenda — specifically his tariff plans — traders have priced in the equivalent of three quarter percentage point reductions by the end of the year, starting in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

However, Powell’s comments indicate that the Fed will be in a wait-and-see mode before mapping out further policy easing.

“Policy is not on a preset course,” he said. “Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”

The policy forum is sponsored by the University of Chicago’s Booth School’s Clark Center for Global Markets and included multiple Fed officials in the audience. Most central bank policymakers lately have said they expect the economy to hold up and inflation to fall back to the Fed’s 2% goal, with the rate climate still unclear as Trump’s policy comes more clearly into view.

In his assessment, Powell also spoke in mostly positive terms about the macro environment, saying the U.S. is in “a good place” with a “solid labor market” and inflation moving back to target.

However, he did note that recent sentiment surveys showed misgivings about the path of inflation, largely a product of the Trump tariff talk. The Fed’s preferred gauge showed 12-month inflation running at a 2.5% rate, or 2.6% when excluding food and energy.

“The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue,” Powell said.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who was not at the forum, said in a speech delivered Friday in Portugal that she sees “important upside risks for inflation” and said that “it could be appropriate to continue holding the policy rate at its current level for some time.”

The remarks also came the same day that the Labor Department reported a gain of 151,000 in nonfarm payrolls for February. Though the total was slightly below market expectations, Powell said the report is more evidence that “the labor market is solid and broadly in balance.”

“Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery,” he said.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in February and were up 4% on an annual basis. The jobs report also indicated that the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1% as household employment dipped.

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