Personal Finance
How Trump’s win could change your health care
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump arrives on November 13, 2024 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
President-elect Donald Trump‘s return to the White House is poised to have big impacts on consumer health care.
Republicans may face few legislative roadblocks with their goals of reshaping health insurance in the U.S., experts said, after the party retained its slim majority in the House of Representatives and flipped the Senate, giving it control of both Congress and the presidency.
Households that get health insurance from Medicaid or an Affordable Care Act marketplace plan may see some of the biggest disruptions, due to reforms sought by Trump and Republican lawmakers, according to health policy experts.
Such reforms would free up federal funds that could be used to help pay for other Republican policy priorities like tax cuts, they said.
Just under 8% of the U.S. population is uninsured right now — the lowest rate in American history, said Michael Sparer, a professor at Columbia University and chair of its Department of Health Policy and Management. That figure was 17% when the Affordable Care Act was enacted over a decade ago, he said.
“That rate will start going up again,” Sparer said.
Trump announced on Nov. 14 that he wants to tap Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to run the Department of Health and Human Services, which includes the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. CMS, in turn, administers the Affordable Care Act marketplace and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), among other endeavors.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks with Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at a Turning Point Action Rally in Duluth, GA on Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024.
The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic who’s been accused of spreading conspiracy theories, has vowed to make big changes to the U.S. health care system.
A spokesperson for Trump’s transition team did not respond to a request from CNBC for comment about the President-elect’s health policy plans.
Here’s how health care could change for consumers during the incoming Trump administration, according to experts.
Affordable Care Act marketplace
A lab technician cares for a patient at Providence St. Mary Medical Center on March 11, 2022 in Apple Valley, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images
‘Betting’ premium subsidies will expire
Based on how the election went, the enhanced subsidies on the Affordable Care Act will likely not be renewed once they expire at the end of 2025, said Cynthia Cox, vice president and director of the ACA program at KFF, a health policy research organization.
“If I was going to place a bet on this, I’d be much more comfortable betting that they are going to expire,” Cox said.
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That government-backed aid, originally passed during the pandemic under the American Rescue Plan in 2021, has significantly lowered the costs of coverage for people buying health insurance plans on the ACA marketplace. Those customers include anyone who doesn’t have access to a workplace plan, such as students, self-employed consumers and unemployed people, among others.
An individual earning $60,000 a year now has a monthly premium of $425, compared to $539 before the enhanced subsidies, according to a rough estimate provided by Cox. Meanwhile, a family of four making about $120,000 currently pays $850 a month instead of $1,649.
Permanently extending the enhanced ACA subsidies could cost around $335 billion over the next 10 years, according to an estimate by the Congressional Budget Office.
“They’re concerned about the cost, and they’re going to be cutting taxes next year likely,” Cox said, of Republicans.
Still, it’s a ‘big’ gamble to forgo health insurance
Around 3.8 million people will lose their health insurance if the subsidies expire, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. Those who maintain their coverage are likely to pay higher premiums.
“The bottom line is uncertainty,” said Sabrina Corlette, co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.
“The good news for marketplace consumers is that the enhanced [subsidies] will be available through 2025, so there should be no immediate changes,” Corlette added.
Even if the subsidies disappear, experts say it’s important to stay enrolled if you can, even if you have to make tradeoffs on coverage to keep the costs within budget.
Enrolling in a plan, even a cheaper plan with a big annual deductible, can provide an important hedge against huge costs from unforeseen medical needs like surgery, said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and certified financial planner based in Jacksonville, Florida.
“I can’t emphasize how big a gamble it is to go without health insurance,” said McClanahan, founder of Life Planning Partners and a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.
“One heart attack easily costs $100,000” out of pocket for someone without insurance, she said. “Do you have that to pay?”
Medicaid
A ‘pretty big target’ for lawmakers
Medicaid is the third-largest program in the federal budget, accounting for $616 billion of spending in 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Trump campaigned on a promise not to make cuts to the two largest programs: Social Security and Medicare.
That makes Medicaid the “obvious place” for Republicans to raise revenue to finance their agenda, said Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF.
“Medicaid will have a pretty big target on its back,” Levitt said.
The bottom line is uncertainty.
Sabrina Corlette
co-director of the Center on Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy
Cuts would “inevitably mean” fewer households would get benefits, Levitt said. Medicaid recipients tend to be lower-income households, people with disabilities and seniors in nursing homes, he said.
Medicaid cuts were a big part of the push among Trump and other Republican lawmakers to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) in 2017, Levitt said.
Those efforts were ultimately unsuccessful.
How Medicaid might be curtailed
Maskot | Maskot | Getty Images
The new Medicaid cuts may take many forms, according to experts, who cite past proposals and remarks from the Trump administration, Republican lawmakers and the Project 2025 conservative policy blueprint.
For example, the Trump administration may try to add work requirements for Medicaid recipients, as it did during his first term, said Sparer of Columbia University.
Additionally, Republicans may try to cap federal Medicaid spending allocated to states, experts said.
The federal government matches a portion — generally 50% or more — of states’ Medicaid spending. That dollar sum is uncapped.
Republicans may try to covert Medicaid to a block grant, whereby a fixed amount of money is provided annually to each state, or institute a per-capita cap, whereby benefits are limited for each Medicaid enrollee, Levitt said.
Lawmakers may also try to roll back the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, which broadened the pool of people who qualify for coverage, experts said.
They could do this by cutting federal financing to the 40 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have expanded Medicaid eligibility. That would shift “an enormous financial risk to states, and many states as a result would drop the Medicaid expansion,” Levitt said.
Short-term health insurance plans
Under the previous Trump administration, consumers saw an increase in the availability of non-ACA compliant health insurance options, including short-term plans, experts say. The same is likely to happen over the next four years.
Short-term health insurance plans offer coverage for limited amounts of time, and typically on fewer medical services than comprehensive coverage.
Proponents of these plans say they allow insurers to offer consumers lower monthly premiums because they’re not required to cover as many services. At the same time, the plans are able to reject people with pre-existing conditions or charge them more. While Trump was in office, enrollment in short-term plans spiked.
The U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C., Oct. 4, 2023.
Yasin Ozturk | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
“The previous Trump administration and many in the GOP have called for expanding the marketing and sale of short-term plans and other insurance products that do not have to satisfy the ACA’s pre-existing condition standards and other consumer protections,” said Georgetown University’s Corlette.
She said that consumers can be attracted to the plans for their low costs, but often learn too late how thin the coverage is.
Drug prices
The Trump administration’s stance on drug pricing is murkier, health experts said.
The Inflation Reduction Act, which President Biden signed into law in 2022, introduced many drug price reforms.
Trump has vowed to roll back parts of the law, which also contains many climate-related provisions and tax breaks toward which he is hostile.
It’s unclear if lawmakers would keep the drug policies intact, experts said. Trump signed executive orders in 2020 aimed at lowering costs for prescription medications, for example.
“It’s not at all clear Trump will be a friend of the pharma industry,” Sparer said.
For example, the Inflation Reduction Act gave the federal government — for the first time — the authority to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies over some drugs covered by Medicare.
That provision is slated to kick in for 10 drugs — some of Medicare’s “most costly and most used” medications, treating a variety of ailments like heart disease, diabetes, arthritis and cancer — in 2026, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
The measure will save patients $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs in 2026, CMS estimates. The federal government would expand the list of medications in ensuing years.
The Inflation Reduction Act also capped Medicare co-pays for insulin at $35 a month. They were previously uncapped. The average Medicare Part D insulin user had paid $54 out-of-pocket a month per insulin prescription in 2020, according to KFF.
The law also capped out-of-pocket costs at $2,000 a year for prescription drugs covered by Medicare, starting in 2025. There was previously no cap.
About 1.4 million Medicare Part D enrollees paid more than $2,000 out-of-pocket for medications in 2020, KFF found. Those costs averaged $3,355 a person.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday.
In what could be Jerome Powell’s last as chair before President Donald Trump’s yet-to-be-confirmed nominee Kevin Warsh takes the helm, central bankers maintained the federal funds rate in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
Inflation has surged since the war with Iran began, leaving policymakers with limited room to act, according to Sean Snaith, the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We’re in a kind of suspended animation — between Iran and the Fed transition,” Snaith said.
Before the oil shock, inflation was holding above the Fed’s 2% target but not worsening. Now the jump in energy costs could have longer-term inflationary effects, economists say.
For Americans struggling in the face of higher gas prices and overall affordability challenges, the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged does little to ease budgetary pressures. “The cavalry isn’t coming anytime soon,” Snaith said.
How the Fed decision impacts you
The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on many consumer borrowing and savings rates.
Short-term rates are more closely pegged to the prime rate, which is typically 3 percentage points above the federal funds rate. Longer-term rates, such as home loans, are more influenced by inflation and other economic factors.
Credit cards
Most credit cards have a short-term rate, so they track the Fed’s benchmark.
After the Fed cut rates three times in the second half of 2025, the average annual percentage rate has stayed just under 20%, according to Bankrate.
“Without Fed rate cuts, there’s not much reason to expect meaningful declines anytime soon, so carrying a balance will remain very expensive,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
Mortgage rates
Fixed mortgage rates, on the other hand, don’t directly track the Fed but typically follow the lead of long-term Treasury rates.
Concerns about how the Iran war will impact the U.S. economy have already pushed the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage up to 6.38% as of Tuesday, from 5.99% at the end of February, according to Mortgage News Daily.
That leaves homeowners with existing low mortgage rates “feeling stuck,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “Mortgages, more than any other credit type, work on a churn,” she said, referring to how a dip in rates can boost borrowing activity.
Student loans
Federal student loan rates are also fixed and based in part on the 10-year Treasury note, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic uncertainty.
Current interest rates on undergraduate federal student loans made through June 30 are 6.39%, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year note.
Car loans
Auto loan rates are tied to several factors, including the Fed’s benchmark. Because financing costs remain elevated, new car buyers are taking on longer loans to keep their monthly payments manageable, according to the latest data from Edmunds.
Even so, with the rate on a five-year new car loan near 7%, the average monthly payment on a new car rose to $773 in the first quarter of 2026, an all-time high.
“Car buyers are in a tough spot right now because they’re getting squeezed from both ends: high sticker prices and high interest rates, with neither showing any signs of letting up,” said Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at Edmunds.
“Until the rate picture shifts, buyers will keep stretching loan terms to make payments work, which only adds to the total cost of ownership down the road,” Yoon said.
Savings rates
While the Fed has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated with changes in the target federal funds rate. So, although rates on certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts have fallen from recent highs, they are holding above the annual rate of inflation.
For now, top-yielding online savings accounts and one-year CD rates pay around 4%, according to Bankrate.
“Yields on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit are down from their peaks of a few years ago, but they’re still strong compared to what we’ve seen for most of the past decade,” Schulz said.
Milan Markovic | E+ | Getty Images
The average tax refund is 11.2% higher this season, compared with about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of April 10, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,397, up from $3,055 about one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 114 million individual returns received, out of about 164 million expected through Tax Day. Next week’s filing update is expected to include data through the April 15 deadline.
President Donald Trump‘s 2025 legislation, rebranded to the “working families tax cuts,” was a key talking point for Republicans on Tax Day.
With the November midterm elections approaching and Republicans defending slim majorities in Congress, many GOP lawmakers have highlighted Trump’s tax breaks and higher average refunds.
Meanwhile, affordability has been top of mind for many Americans amid rising costs of gas, electricity, food and other living expenses.
For filers who expected a refund this season, nearly one-quarter, or 23%, planned to use the funds to pay down credit card debt, and the same share said they would save the payment, according to the CNBC and SurveyMonkey Quarterly Money Survey, released in April. It polled 3,494 U.S. adults at the end of March.
Who benefited from Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’
“It’s been a great tax season for the American people,” many of whom have benefited from Trump’s tax breaks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a White House press briefing on Wednesday.
More than 53 million filers claimed at least one of Trump’s “signature new tax cuts” — the deductions for tip income, overtime earnings, seniors and auto loan interest — the Department of the Treasury also announced on Wednesday.
Those filers, who claimed the deductions on Schedule 1-A, have seen an average tax cut of over $800, according to the Treasury. Tax cuts can trigger a higher refund or reduce taxes owed, depending on the filer’s situation.
Some filers who itemize tax breaks have also seen benefits from the bigger federal deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT. Trump’s legislation raised that cap to $40,000, up from $10,000, for 2025.
The latest SALT deduction limit change is expected to primarily benefit higher earners, according to a May 2025 analysis of various proposals from the Tax Foundation.
The Treasury has not released data on how many filers have claimed the SALT deduction during the 2026 filing season.
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on April 16, 2026.
NYSE
U.S. stocks climbed to record highs on Thursday against a backdrop of war, an oil supply shock and economic forecasts warning of stunted growth amid a protracted conflict.
Many investors may be thinking: Why?
Largely, it’s because the stock market is a barometer of what investors think will happen in the future, rather than an assessment of the present day, according to economists and market analysts.
Investors are essentially shrugging off the Middle East conflict as a blip that will be resolved relatively quickly, they said.
“The stock market isn’t trying to price what’s happening today,” said Joe Seydl, a senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “The stock market is always trying to price what the world is going to look like six to 12 months from now.”
Why stocks have been ‘resilient’
The S&P 500, a U.S. stock index, fell about 8% in the initial weeks of the Iran war, from the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 to a recent low on March 30.
But stocks have rebounded since then, erasing all losses since the beginning of the war. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Thursday — about 11% higher than its nadir at the end of March. That followed a record close on Wednesday.
“The market has remained very resilient in the face of the war and has rallied strongly on the prospect that it will be resolved,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
A ship waits to pass through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is conditional on the opening of the strait, in Oman on April 8, 2026.
Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images
And while investors cheered the possibility of a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict, the temporary ceasefire has appeared tenuous, with the U.S. and Iran each accusing the other of breaking the agreement.
Nations haven’t been able to reach a peace deal ahead of the ceasefire’s end. Vice President JD Vance said U.S. officials left peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend after the Iranian delegation refused to agree to American demands not to develop a nuclear weapon.
The markets ‘have memory’
Ultimately, the stock market is signaling a collective belief that tensions will ratchet down, the war will end in the near term and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize, economists said.
That’s largely because investors have been conditioned to believe that President Donald Trump will back off if the economic pain becomes too intense, economists said — the so-called “TACO” trade, shorthand for “Trump always chickens out.”
“Investors strongly believe — and have been conditioned to believe — he’s going to stand down, find a way to pivot, declare victory and move on,” Zandi said.
Trump has pushed back on the notion of backing down, framing his brinkmanship as a savvy negotiating tactic.
Economists pointed to a recent example of this dynamic: in April 2025 during so-called liberation day, when the Trump administration levied a host of tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
Within days — after the stock market had cratered more than 12% — Trump announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs. Stocks then saw one of their biggest daily rallies in history following Trump’s reversal.
Investors remember that Trump often de-escalates geopolitical shocks — which is why they’ve seized on positive headlines that hint at progress in peace talks, for example, Seydl said.
“The markets have memory,” Seydl said.
AI stocks and the ‘tech boom’
Traders celebrating at the New York Stock Exchange on April 15, 2026, as the S&P 500 closed above the 7,000 level for the first time.
NYSE
There are other factors underpinning market resilience during wartime, economists said.
One is the investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and technology stocks, which account for almost half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, Zandi said.
“Those stocks run on their own dynamic independent of anything, including the war in Iran,” Zandi said. “I think we would have been down a lot more and it would have been harder for us to recover had it not been for the very, very optimistic perspectives on AI.”
We’re in the middle of a “tech boom” — and investors are likely to remain optimistic until they think the tech cycle has run its course, Seydl said.
More broadly, stock investors are essentially making a bet on the future earnings growth of a company — and the earnings backdrop has been “pretty solid,” Seydl said.
Consumer spending appears to be stable, for example, economists said. And companies are getting a boost to their after-tax earnings from the GOP’s so-called “big beautiful bill,” which, among other things, made it easier to write off investments upfront and therefore reduce their tax liability, Zandi said.
Going forward
Experts said there will be an economic hit from the Iran war, though.
“Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of research at the International Monetary Fund, wrote Tuesday.
A protracted conflict risks deep and global economic pain, he wrote.
Even if the conflict is short-lived — as the broad market expects — stocks are unlikely to march much higher until it’s clear the U.S. is on the other side of the war and its economic fallout, Zandi said.
If investors are incorrect, and President Trump doesn’t back down or quickly extricate the U.S. from the war, the stock market may see a “full-blown correction” or worse, Zandi said. A stock market correction is a decline of at least 10% from recent highs.
“Everyone thinks they know what the script is,” Zandi said. “Now they just need to follow the script. If they don’t, the market will have some real problems.”
The uncertainty provides yet another example of why the average investor with a long time horizon should stick to their investment plan and ignore the noise, experts said.
“Trying to time the market is very difficult if not impossible for the average investor,” Seydl said. “It’s better to take a long-term perspective and ride out bouts of volatility.”
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