Connect with us

Economics

If Trump wants to kill inflation, the first thing he needs to do is get more homes built

Published

on

Homes under construction in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey on Nov. 19th, 2024.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

If President-elect Donald Trump is going to push inflation back down to a more tolerable level, he will need help from housing costs, an area where federal policymakers have only a limited amount of influence.

The November consumer price index report contained mixed news on the shelter front, which accounts for one-third of the closely followed inflation index.

On one hand, the category posted its smallest full-year increase since February 2022. Moreover, two key rent-related components within the measure saw their smallest monthly gains in more than three years.

But on the other hand, the annual rise was still 4.7%, a level that, excluding the Covid era, was last seen in mid-1991 when CPI inflation was running around 5%. Housing contributed about 40% of the monthly increase in the price gauge, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than food costs.

With the CPI annual rate now nudging up to 2.7% — 3.3% when excluding food and energy — it’s not clear that inflation is consistently and convincingly headed back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, at least not until housing inflation eases even more.

“It would be expected that over time, we would start to see year-over-year slower growth in rents,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a Maryland-based listing service that covers six states and Washington, D.C. “It just feels like it’s taking a long time, though.”

Still rising but not as fast

Indeed, housing inflation has been on a slow, uneven trek lower since peaking in March 2023. Much like the overall CPI, shelter components continue to rise, though at a slower pace.

The housing issue has been caused by ongoing cycle of supply outstripping demand, a condition that began in the early days of Covid and which has yet to be resolved. Housing supply in November was about 17% below its level five years ago, according to Realtor.com.

Rents have been a particular focus for policymakers, and the news there also has been mixed.

The average national rent in October stood at $2,009 a month, down slightly from September but still 3.3% higher than a year ago, according to real estate market site Zillow. Rents over the past four years are up some 30% nationally.

Looking at housing, costs also continue to climb, a condition exacerbated by high interest rates that the Federal Reserve is trying to lower.

Until mortgage rates come down we won't see prices come down, says Howard Hughes Corp CEO

Though the central bank has cut its benchmark borrowing rate by three-quarters of a percentage point since September, and is expected to knock off another quarter point next week, the typical 30-year mortgage rate actually has climbed about as much as the Fed has cut during the same time frame.

All of the converging factors post a potential threat to Trump, whose policies otherwise, such as tax breaks and tariffs, are projected by some economists to add to the inflation quandary.

“We know that some of the president-elect’s proposed initiatives are quite inflationary, so I think the prospects for continued progress towards 2% are less sure than they might have been six months ago,” Sturtevant said. “I don’t feel like I’ve been compelled by anything in particular that suggests that targeting the supply issue is something that the federal government can meaningfully do, certainly not in the short term.”

Optimism for now

During the presidential campaign, Trump made deregulation a cornerstone of his economic platform, and that could spill into the housing market by opening up federal land for construction and generally lowering barriers for homebuilders. Trump also has been a strong proponent for lower interest rates, though monetary policy is largely out of his purview.

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

The mood on Wall Street was generally upbeat about the housing picture.

“Rents may finally be normalizing to levels consistent with 2% inflation,” Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said in a note. The November housing data “will be viewed as encouraging at the Fed,” wrote economist Krushna Guha, head of central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.

Still, shelter expenses “continue to be the number one source for higher prices, and that the rate of increase has slowed is no comfort,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

That could cause trouble for Trump, who faces a potential Catch-22 that will make easing the housing burden difficult to solve.

“We’re not going to drop rates until shelter costs come down. But shelter can’t come down until rates are lower,” Sturtevant said. “We know that there are some wild cards out there that we might not have been talking about two or three months ago.”

Economics

Texas troopers are in more and more lethal car chases

Published

on

A RED CAR weaves in and out of traffic on a highway in El Paso, Texas. It’s June 2022 and Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) troopers are in hot pursuit. They are chasing someone they suspect of smuggling migrants across the southern border. The high-speed pursuit, which reaches 100mph (160kph), eventually runs parallel to the border wall. As the troopers drive closer they seem to hit the car. It flips and lands upside down. One passenger flies through a window; the others crawl out. The DPS radio traffic is mostly unintelligible except for one word. “Shit.”

Continue Reading

Economics

Elon Musk is powersliding through the federal government

Published

on

But to what end?

Continue Reading

Economics

Trump’s tariffs push will hit the U.S. harder than Europe: Santander

Published

on

Tariffs are a tax on the consumer, Santander's Botin says

The White House’s protectionist policies could hit the U.S. harder than Europe in the short term, Banco Santander‘s executive chair told CNBC on Thursday, as tariffs take a toll on domestic consumers.

“Tariffs [are] a tax. It’s a tax on the consumer.” Ana Botín said in an interview with CNBC’s Karen Tso in Brussels on the sidelines of the 2025 IIF European Summit. “Ultimately, the economy will pay a price. There will be less growth and there will be more inflation, other things equal.”

President Donald Trump has imposed — and at times suspended or revoked — a slew of tariffs on imports into the U.S. since his second administration began in January. He is seeking to promote domestic manufacturing and reduce trade deficits between the world’s largest economy and its commercial partners.

Botín is not alone in her warning regarding tariffs’ negative impact on the U.S., with many analysts also saying the duties could ultimately cause higher inflation and strain the wallets of U.S. consumers.

“On a relative basis, in the short term, Europe will be less affected than the U.S.,” Botín said Thursday.

A Volkswagen (VW) Passat R car (L) and a Golf GTI car are pictured in the tower storage facility of German carmaker Volkswagen at the company's headquarters in Wolfsburg, central Germany, on March 11, 2025.

Germany slams Trump’s 25% auto tariffs as bad news for U.S., EU and global trade

The imposition of blanket and country-specific duties — which include Wednesday’s news of a 25% tariff on all car imports into the U.S., effective from April 2 — have led to a number of retaliatory measures, including from the U.S.’ historical transatlantic ally, the European Union.

The bloc has also taken steps to bolster its autonomy through a package of proposals that could critically relax previously ironclad fiscal rules and mobilize nearly 800 billion euros ($863.8 billion) toward the region’s higher defense expenditures.

“European banks today are ready to lend more and support the economy more. We are strong. We have the capital,” Botín said. She also called for more “flexibility” in EU regulations that currently determine the “buffers” European lenders must hold on top of minimum capital requirements to bolster their resilience in the event of financial shocks.

The latest EU plans — and Germany’s steps to overhaul its long-standing debt policy to accommodate bolstered security spending — have boosted German and European defense stocks in recent weeks.

However, Germany is heavily reliant on its beleaguered auto sector — leaving the world’s third-largest exporter vulnerable to stark shifts in trade patterns and potentially exposed to recessionary risks as a result of U.S. tariffs, German central bank Governor Joachim Nagel warned earlier this month.

Botín — whose bank is the fifth-largest auto lender in the U.S. and has been pushing to expand its operations transatlantic while shuttering some physical branches in the U.K. — painted an optimistic picture of the state of the European economy, however.

“As of today, we believe the U.S. will slow down more than Europe, other things equal, because Germany is one third of the economy of the euro zone. That’s huge. So that’s going to give a boost,” she said, while also acknowledging that recent unpredictability has clouded clarity over the European Central Bank’s next monetary policy steps.

The central bank is broadly expected to proceed with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut during its next meeting on April 17. It also eased monetary policy in early March and signaled at the time that its monetary policy had become “meaningfully less restrictive.”

“The fundamentals of the economy are strong, but the uncertainty and volatility [are] at historic levels. So it’s a really hard decision. So there is no doubt that tariffs are a tax on consumer[s], it means slower growth, it means higher inflation,” Botín said.

“How much slower growth and how much higher inflation, we don’t know. But when you don’t know what’s going to happen in the next few months, you’re going to wait to buy a car, you’re going to wait to buy a fridge. If you’re a company … you’re going to wait to see where the tariffs hit harder. So this is going to mean a slowdown in activity. That’ll point toward lower rates. Inflation will point the other direction.”

Botín added that, as a result, “there’s a case to be made for … rates coming down, but probably not as fast.”

Speaking to CNBC’s Tso earlier in the day, ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch also indicated that the U.S. tariff war had encumbered the bank’s decision-making.

“If we forget tariffs …. we were going in the right direction. Then the question was more a question of fine tuning of the pace of cuts and where we land,” he said. “I was like, you know, inflation might be the boring part of [20]25, and [20]25 is not a boring year. But if you add tariffs to the equation, it’s becoming more complicated.”

ECB's Pierre Wunsch: Trump's tariffs will impact interest rates in Europe

Continue Reading

Trending