Connect with us

Economics

If Trump wants to kill inflation, the first thing he needs to do is get more homes built

Published

on

Homes under construction in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey on Nov. 19th, 2024.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

If President-elect Donald Trump is going to push inflation back down to a more tolerable level, he will need help from housing costs, an area where federal policymakers have only a limited amount of influence.

The November consumer price index report contained mixed news on the shelter front, which accounts for one-third of the closely followed inflation index.

On one hand, the category posted its smallest full-year increase since February 2022. Moreover, two key rent-related components within the measure saw their smallest monthly gains in more than three years.

But on the other hand, the annual rise was still 4.7%, a level that, excluding the Covid era, was last seen in mid-1991 when CPI inflation was running around 5%. Housing contributed about 40% of the monthly increase in the price gauge, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than food costs.

With the CPI annual rate now nudging up to 2.7% — 3.3% when excluding food and energy — it’s not clear that inflation is consistently and convincingly headed back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, at least not until housing inflation eases even more.

“It would be expected that over time, we would start to see year-over-year slower growth in rents,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a Maryland-based listing service that covers six states and Washington, D.C. “It just feels like it’s taking a long time, though.”

Still rising but not as fast

Indeed, housing inflation has been on a slow, uneven trek lower since peaking in March 2023. Much like the overall CPI, shelter components continue to rise, though at a slower pace.

The housing issue has been caused by ongoing cycle of supply outstripping demand, a condition that began in the early days of Covid and which has yet to be resolved. Housing supply in November was about 17% below its level five years ago, according to Realtor.com.

Rents have been a particular focus for policymakers, and the news there also has been mixed.

The average national rent in October stood at $2,009 a month, down slightly from September but still 3.3% higher than a year ago, according to real estate market site Zillow. Rents over the past four years are up some 30% nationally.

Looking at housing, costs also continue to climb, a condition exacerbated by high interest rates that the Federal Reserve is trying to lower.

Until mortgage rates come down we won't see prices come down, says Howard Hughes Corp CEO

Though the central bank has cut its benchmark borrowing rate by three-quarters of a percentage point since September, and is expected to knock off another quarter point next week, the typical 30-year mortgage rate actually has climbed about as much as the Fed has cut during the same time frame.

All of the converging factors post a potential threat to Trump, whose policies otherwise, such as tax breaks and tariffs, are projected by some economists to add to the inflation quandary.

“We know that some of the president-elect’s proposed initiatives are quite inflationary, so I think the prospects for continued progress towards 2% are less sure than they might have been six months ago,” Sturtevant said. “I don’t feel like I’ve been compelled by anything in particular that suggests that targeting the supply issue is something that the federal government can meaningfully do, certainly not in the short term.”

Optimism for now

During the presidential campaign, Trump made deregulation a cornerstone of his economic platform, and that could spill into the housing market by opening up federal land for construction and generally lowering barriers for homebuilders. Trump also has been a strong proponent for lower interest rates, though monetary policy is largely out of his purview.

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

The mood on Wall Street was generally upbeat about the housing picture.

“Rents may finally be normalizing to levels consistent with 2% inflation,” Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau said in a note. The November housing data “will be viewed as encouraging at the Fed,” wrote economist Krushna Guha, head of central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.

Still, shelter expenses “continue to be the number one source for higher prices, and that the rate of increase has slowed is no comfort,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

That could cause trouble for Trump, who faces a potential Catch-22 that will make easing the housing burden difficult to solve.

“We’re not going to drop rates until shelter costs come down. But shelter can’t come down until rates are lower,” Sturtevant said. “We know that there are some wild cards out there that we might not have been talking about two or three months ago.”

Economics

Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

Published

on

09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

Continue Reading

Economics

Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

Published

on

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

Continue Reading

Economics

Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

Published

on

IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

Continue Reading

Trending